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Showing posts from March, 2023

April series Begins (31st March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on last 2 trading sessions. 2. Right now , U.S Futures are trading higher. 3. SGX Nifty is indicating more than a 100 point gap up today.  4. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 5. We are currently having a pullback rally across global markets. 6. We are also participating in this rally. 7. Nifty has now made short term bottom near 16800. 8. 17200 is the major level to watch out for. 9. Once this is taken out we would be heading towards 17350. 10. The trend hasn't changed yet. 11. Markets are still in a sell on rally phase. 12. As of now this could be termed as a pullback rally. 13. I would turn slightly bullish only if 17350 is crossed on Nifty.  14. We are also having some sort of short covering rally currently. 15. Markets in a highly oversold zone. 16. So colling up of positions was the order. 17. Banks are facing severe pressure. 18. PSU Banks which were the hero stocks few months ago. 19. Most of them have now been trading near 52 week lo

Monthly Expiry Trading (29th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are trading higher. 3. SGX Nifty is indicating a 20-30 point gap up. 4. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 5. Markets as of now are in a consolidation Mode. 6. We have been consolidating within a 300 point band on Nifty. 7. The range is 16850 to 17150. 8. Coming to broader markets , the Markets have become very very narrow. 9. There has been very selected buying in a few stocks. 10. Most of the stocks are heading lower. 11. Yesterday as well the advance decline ratio was worst. 12. I had already said that only selected stocks would go higher. 13. Too huge money would chase far lesser stocks  14. This is what is happening right now. 15. Mid and small cap stocks are bleeding. 16. Major largecap stocks are near there important support levels. 17. Reliance isn't far away from 52 week lows. 18. Every small intraday bounce is now getting sold into. 19. Markets are closing at the lows of the day and making lower l

Markets all over the place (28th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are trading higher. 3. SGX Nifty is indicating a large gap up of 50+ Points. 4. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 5. Yesterday the markets moved all over the place. 6. Markets yesterday were trading within a range but were highly Volatile.  7. They were trading within a 100 point range max for the day  8. Within that range markets made many 100 point swings. 9. Bank Nifty was also within a range yesterday.  10. So now the Markets are in a consolidation phase. 11. Tomorrow we will be having the monthly expiry. 12. Thursday is a Public holiday on account of Ram Navmi. 13. Midcap stocks are under huge selling pressure. 14. Yesterday Nifty closed flat. 15. The thing which doesn't grab eyeballs in the advance - decline ratio. 16. There were just 400 advances yesterday and 1600 declining stocks. 17. That means for every 1 stock higher 4 stocks lower. 18. Mid & small cap stocks are facing the brunt. 19. Mar

Should you sell the gap up? (27th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now , U.S Futures are trading higher. 3. SGX Nifty is indicating a large gap up of 100+ Points. 4. Asian Markets are mostly higher. 5. Friday there was a huge sell off in the markets. 6. This was majorly due to STT News. 7. There was a news floating around that STT ( Securities Transactions Tax) is going to be increased in the markets. 8. However there was a clarification pending on the same. 9. On this news , the Markets nosedived. 10. So today the first suggestion would be not to chase the gap up immediately.  11. Second suggestion would be to short near Fridays high with a strict stoploss. 12. Fridays high was close to 17110 on Nifty. 13. Shorting near 17120-17150 with a stop of 17200 works for the day. 14. There is a possibility of a trending move today as well. 15. If the gap up sustains for 30 minutes and we Markets crosses today's high then a trending day is also possible. 16. One should keep all possibilities in m

Reversal from 17200 (24th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. At one point of time , U.S Markets were higher by more than a percent. 3. U.S Markets yesterday behaved similar to Indian Markets. 4. We trade in U.S Markets as well so in the first half Markets were higher. 5. There was huge selling in the second half. 6. Yesterday in the first half Markets were smooth and were gradually inching higher. 7. As soon as Nifty hit 17200 , there was a big sell off. 8. Nifty and Bank nifty closed at the lowest point of the day. 9. Right now , U.S Futures are slightly higher. 10. SGX Nifty is down 20-30 Points. 11. Asian markets are mostly lower. 12. Now the range for nifty is 17000 to 17200. 13. This is the short term range. 14. As soon as 17000 gets taken out we would be heading towards 16850. 15. So the markets are clearly weak now. 16. It is a sell on rally Market. 17. There will be some minor pullbacks in between. 18. An inexperienced trader would try to trade minor pullbacks and make pennies out of

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is down 50-60 Points. 4. Asian markets are mostly down. 5. Yesterday was a rangebound day. 6. Nifty moved vigorously after market opening Yesterday.  7. It was trading in a tight range of 100 points or so  8. FII's were net buyers yesterday.  9. After having sold aggressively on daily basis ,they took a pause yesterday.  10. That might be due to the FED event. 11. They might have preferred not to carry any trades going into the event. 12. Yesterday FED raised interest rates by 25 basis points. 13. The Commentary was also Hawkish as the FED governor raised concerns of Banking crisis. 14. Though he gave assurance that there's lot of liquidity etc market fell after the event. 15. Market swung yesterday before the event and more so post the event. 16. FED'S action of raising the rates despite the ongoing banking crisis instilled fear amount the investing community. 1

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is up 20-30 Points. 4. Asian markets are mostly mixed.  5. Yesterday Nifty did retest the previous low of 16850. 6. Intact nifty broke 16850 and went another 20-30 Points lower. 7. During the end of the day there was a short covering rally witnessed. 8. Global markets are in turmoil.  9. Last 2 days markets have shown very good resilience.  10. U.S VIX has collapsed 10% in last 2 trading sessions. 11. With all major indices closing at the highest point of the day. 12. It seems like a short term bottom has been made for now. 13. 16850 is the short term bottom for now. 14. This is just a reversal /pullback rally. 15. This aint a trend reversal rally. 16. Trends don't change so easily & quickly. 17. This pullback could extend upto 17200-17250. 18. We have monthly expiry approaching as well. 19. There are 5-6 trading sessions left now for monthly expiry. 20. Last week i

Pre - Market Analysis (21st March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is up 80-100 Points. 4. Asian markets are mostly higher. 5. Yesterday Nifty did retest the previous low of 16850. 6. Intact nifty broke 16850 and went another 20-30 Points lower. 7. During the end of the day there was a short covering rally witnessed. 8. Global markets are in turmoil.  9. This is the reason FII's are selling heavily. 10. They have sold for more than 12000 crores since SVB news is out. 11. These are monstrous selling numbers. 12. All the major large cap stocks also look weak. 13. If the market has to recover, this is the  level  14 . Nifty at major support level of 16850. 15. Reliance near major support level of 2200. 16. Reliance for the last 1.5 years has been hovering between 2200 and 2800. 17. A pullback rally is due and this is the place from where we could have one if we should. 18. If 16850 is taken out and we close lower then we could witness muc

U.S Banking Crisis (20th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. Right now , U.S Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is down 100-120 Points. 4. Asian markets are mostly lower. 5. This one day up next day down move continues in U.S Markets. 6. There's lot of confusion and uncertainty now. 7. Specially after SVB Bank collapse. 8. FED is also in confusion whether to hike rates or to lower rates. 9. There hasn't been any statement from FED as well. 10. Rumours have been floating around that some of these banks have gone to Warren Buffett seeking help. 11. Buffett is the only Man having 100 Bullion $ and more worth of cash  12. He has been sitting on cash since 4 years plus now. 13. It's been shown in the history that he always invests during crisis. 14. Now there's a crisis so he would like to find bargain bets. 15. If WarreN buffett infuses capital then people would get back their trust in the system. 16. Our Markets are now in a narrow range. 17. 16850 to 17250 is the range fo

16800 , A short term bottom? (17th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is up 100-120 Points. 4. Asian markets are mostly higher. 5. Yesterday , Nifty broke 17k and went close 16850. 6. After hitting a low close to 16850 , markets recovered and went above 17k. 7. Also , Nifty couldn't sustain above 17k and finally closed below 17k. 8. Such was the huge Volatility yesterday.  9. Today we are likely to open gap up of 100 points. 10. We have made a short term bottom yesterday. 11. It will be confirmed only when Nifty retest the support and bounces back from there. 12. Yesterday U.S VIX Crashed by 10%. 13. Each and every day U.S Markets are making a larger move now. 14. Everyday there's a move of almost more than a percent. 15. This Volatility would continue until this Banking crisis issue is solved. 16. Also until the FED Stops to raise interest rates. 17. As of now this is just a pullback rally and not a trend reversal. 18. Bear markets a

Nifty hovering near 17k ( 16th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are higher. 3. SGX Nifty is Flat. 4. Asian markets are mixed. 5. Yesterday Nifty tried to retest 17300. 6. There was a rejection from this level and Nifty broke 17k. 7. Exactly as we has hinted in the blog yesterday. 8. U.S Markets when I slept yesterday were down 700 points. 9. Today Morning I saw there was a sharp recovery from the lows and they have closed just 270 points lower. 10. This recovery from the lows cannot be termed as bottom yet. 11. Trends don't change so easily and bottoms take time to be made. 12. 16800 is the next major support now. 13. All he'll would break loose once markets break 16800. 14. We might consolidate now for a few trading sessions. 15. Before there's a bigger move in the markets. 16. 17000 is the first support and next major support at 16800. 17. U.S VIX has crossed 25 now. 18. India VIX is close to 17 now. 19. The Volatility which we are having now it seems like

Nifty hits 17k (15th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are lower. 3. SGX Nifty is up 80-100 points. 4. Asian markets are mixed. 5. There has been 4 days of relentless selling in our Markets  6. The reason doesn't seem to be Banking collapse in United States. 7. U.S Markets have settled after a knee- jerk reaction. 8. Our Markets haven't settled yet. 9. This isn't a selling like the previous ones. 10. Previously FII's used to target few nifty stocks  11. Used to sell them and create panic. 12. This selling is now an all around selling. 13. Broader Markets have been bleeding extensively. 14. There is pain all around. 15. Now 17300 becomes a very important resistance. 16. Nifty might retest 17300 and then break 17k. 17. Markets won't collapse in a hiff.  18. There would be intermittent rallies in between to take weak shorts out. 19. FII's have now been selling aggressively.  20. Nifty might trade between 17000 to 17300 today. 21. stockmarke

Bloodbath in the Markets (14th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are higher. 3. SGX Nifty is up 20-40 points. 4. Asian markets are mixed. 5. Yesterday was a highly unexpected day. 6. Markets did open with mild positivity yesterday.  7. As soon as Markets opened they shot up. 8. Nifty went close to 17550. 9. Then the selling started and it was so vigorous than Nifty closed near 17150. 10. Nifty crashed 400 points from the day high. 11. This a such a huge fall. 12. Now the swing low of 17300 has also taken out. 13. Next support is only near 17000-17050 now. 14. Even if this breaks then we would be heading towards 16800. 15. India VIX shot up 21% yesterday.  16. This shows extreme fear and panic in the markets. 17. India VIX jumping 21% in a day is a rare event. 18. Now the Volatility is at sky high. 19. Markets always give the fake move first and the real move later on. 20. Now the range for nifty has shifted to 17000 to 17300. 21. We might have a day of consolidation toda

SVB Bank crisis Unfolds (13th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. Right now , U.S Futures are higher. 3. SGX Nifty is up 20-40 points. 4. Asian markets are higher. 5. I wasn't able to understand why were the markets crashing on Thursday & Friday. 6. During the weekend the news broke over. 7. SVB Bank which has been termed as the worst crisis since 2018. 8. This is mainly a start up based Bank. 9. This crisis was to happen looking at the start up valuations and findings received. 10. This was anticipated by big players and hence there was intense selling on Thursday and Friday. 11. Sometimes , one doesn't understand a particular move of markets unless news is out. 12. As retailers are the last players to know anything happening. 13. During the weekend , FED ensured and gave assurance that Depositors funds would be safe. 14. No depositors would lose money. 15. That's the reason U.S Futures are higher by more than a percent each. 16. Looking at Technicals , we are trading at the lower

17500 is the Key!! (10th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are lower. 3. SGX Nifty is down 120-140 points. 4. Asian markets are lower. 5. Yesterday was a surprising weekly expiry. 6. Markets kept on moving lower and closed at the lowest point of the day  7. U.S Markets are trading with huge Volatility.  8. They are up one day and down the next day. 9. Markets are trading in a zig zag mode. 10. Yesterday at one point of time U.S Markets were higher by 300 points. 11. During the day there was huge selling and it closed 500 points lower.. 12. There was a swing of 1000 points in Dow Jones yesterday.  13. U.S VIX jumped 13% yesterday.  14. 17500 is the key level for us today. 15. If we manage to hold this level then we can hope for some recovery  16. Else we would retest 17300 again. 17. This is a swinging market. 18. It swings from one range to another rapidly. 19. Trending players are facing the brunt. 20. Nifty might trade between 17400 to 17700 today. 21. stockmarket

Choppy Markets (9th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are flat. 3. SGX Nifty is as flat as it can be. 4. Yesterday was a surprising day. 5. SGX Nifty showed a gap down of 150 points.  6. This gap down was before the Market opening. 7. Surprisingly , markets didn't open as lower as SGX. 8. Markets as soon as they opened tried to move higher. 9. Most important of all , even yesterday markets closed at the highest point of the day. 10. When markets don't react to global mayhem that means there is strength in our Markets. 11. 17800 is an immediate resistance. 12. Once this is taken out we would be heading towards 18k on Nifty. 13. Bank Nifty is back in business and is witnessing outperformance.  14. This is now a buy on dips market. 15. Unless we get any signs of reversal  16. There have been positive news floating around Adani group as well. 17. This is building a positive sentiment across Dalai street. 18. India VIX is at all time low. 19. This situation i

FED Statement is Out. (8th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets crashed yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are flat. 3. SGX Nifty is down 150 points. 4. Friday was a reversal day. 5. After touching 17800 , Nifty has reversed. 6. Reason for the crash yesterday in U.S Markets is the FED Chairman statement. 7. Jerome Powell (FED Chairman ) has said "Interest rates are likely to be higher than anticipated ". 8. This means more rate hikes are around the corner. 9. More rate hikes around the corner would reduce liquidity immensely. 10. Will only increase the Slowdown in the economy. 11. So the markets reacted out of fear. 12. Now the Markets will price in subsequent rate hikes. 13. Markets always discount 6 months forward news well in advance. 14. The range for nifty now is 17500 to 17800. 15. Markets reversed exactly from 17800 on Monday. 16. Today this big gap down opening.  17. This is a swinging market. 18. Markets moving from one boundary to another boundary. 19. These moves are also fast & furious. 20. N

Do not chase todays gap up (6th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now , U.S Futures are flat. 3. SGX Nifty is up 80 points. 4. Friday was a surprising day. 5. This is what stock markets offer , Uncertainty.  6. You enter the trading arena with a trading plan. 7. Markets provide something else. 8. Markets had opened with a huge gap up on Friday. 9. Also Markets opened very close to the resistance level of 17500. 10. As soon as Markets opened in started to cross 17500. 11. The moment Markets showed strength it was clear that it would be a trending day. 12. Adani issue is not as worst as expected by the markets. 13. By seeking investment from entities they have been saved by the skin of the teeth as of now. 14. Now the Nifty range has been shifted to 17500 to 17800. 15. Markers are in an uptrend now. 16. I wouldn't advice to chase today's gap up. 17. We are already sitting on 300 points rally. 18. Plus a gap up would make 400 points rally.  19. Purely from risk - reward perspective cha

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are slightly lower. 3. Yesterday the U.S markets were trading flat for the first half. 4. In second half there was a rally. 5. Markets have been moving sideways from quite some time now. 6. Nifty is trading in a zig zag pattern. 7. It up one day , down the next day and Ultimately going nowhere. 8. Yesterday the markets closed lower. 9. Today there's a gap up. 10. Previous 6 trading sessions have been one day up one day down. 11. Trend followers are being trapped badly. 12. As the markets ain't following any major trend. 13. 17300 - 17500 is the range for nifty. 14. Within this range nifty is trading with huge Volatility.  15. In Ranging markets, the trade is to buy at the lower end & sell at the upper end with stoploss . 16. Unless we cross 17600 decisively the larger trend is still bearish  17. There might be some pullbacks in between 18. These pullbacks are not so strong that could alter the t

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are mixed. 3. Dow futures are trading higher. 4. Whereas Nasdaq & S&P 500 have been trading lower. 5. SGX Nifty is down 50-60 Points. 6. So we are likely to have a negative opening today. 7. Today we also have the weekly expiry 8. Gap down is not so huge so it's not a worry for expiry traders. 9. Yesterday markets shot up & kept trading higher. 10. It could be termed as a relief rally now. 11. Trends don't change so easily. 12. They take time to change. 13. We have been in a bearish trend since Adani Saga has played out. 14. If we cross resistance level of 17600 then I would conclude that Markets have stabilized.  15. Until then this is going to continue like a sell on rally Market. 16. Banks are looking quite strong compared to other stocks. 17. Bank Nifty has been outperforming nifty from quite some time now. 18 .17300 to 17500 is the range for nifty today. 19. There would be a bigger m

Pre - Market Analysis (1st March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is down 20-30 Points. 4. So we are likely to have a negative opening today. 5. Yesterday the markets have decisively broke the budget day low. 6. 17350 was the budget day low and it was a good support to work with. 7. Yesterday we closed below it and also below 200 DMA. 8. So this market is breaking downwards. 9. Yesterday , FII's have sold for 4600 crores. 10. This is the highest selling for Feb Month. 11. I spoke to one of the Bank Managers yesterday regarding FD and loan rates. 12. FD rates have gone up to as High as 8%. 13. These are expected to increase in next 3 months as rate hikes are not expected in near future. 14. When FD rates are 8% the loan rates minimum should be 12-13% for the Banks to make some money. 15. In the Environment we are in , with such a massive Slowdown the loans automatically get discouraged. 16. This brings liquidity crunch in the market. 17.