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Showing posts from April, 2022

Pre - Market Analysis (29th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Global cues have finally turned Positive in short run. SGX nifty is up 60-70 points. Amazon declared results after Market hours. Due to Poor Guidance , the stock fell 8-10% after results in pre Market. Apple in spite of beating street expectations is down 3% due to cautious guidance for the next quarter. Asian markets are higher. Yesterday it was a surprising and a fantastic expiry for Bulls  I had pointed out it wasn't the time to go short and focus on building longs. Market has obliged. Now I sense the momentum and upside could continue further. Both FII's & DII's were net buyers yesterday. Remember this is an year of Mean reversion and not a trending year. So when markets rally a lot that's when it's the time to short near all time highs. When markets crashes and bleeds look for longs. This is a reversing Market with huge Volatility. Contra trades would only succeed in such Market. After yesterday's rally w

Pre - Market Analysis (28th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed mildly positive yesterday. Right now Dow futures are higher. It was a high volatile session yesterday in U.S Dow was up 400 at open , then it fell 600 points and then again up 600 and finally closed slightly positive. Asian markets are higher. SGX nifty is up 30-40 points. Today we have the monthly expiry for F&O contracts. Nifty is trading in a narrow range of 16900 and 17200. Within this range , Nifty is in a consolidation. Going significantly higher post a level would lead to a trend. Coming first week of May is a 4 day week. Tuesday is a holiday on Account of EID. Also Tuesday we will be starting Fed meeting in U.S Hence , plan your trades accordingly. 16800 -17000 has emerged as a strong support numerous number of occasions. Nasdaq is at its 52 week lows and that's what causing downfall in IT stocks. Facebook has just reported its numbers and it has beaten street expectations. Will this cause a positive sentiment from here on? Only time will

Pre - Market Analysis (27th April 2022)

U.S Markets crashed yesterday. Right now Dow futures are higher. Nasdaq crashed 3% yesterday and closed at 52 week lows. This is because both Tesla and Twitter are down after Elon Musk deal. SGX nifty is down 150 points  U.S Markets are making huge moves everyday and are highly volatile. This is making our markets volatile as well. Yesterday Nifty saw a huge short covering rally at the end. Everything was Bullish. Today we have a gap down. Such stuff makes life very difficult for traders. Today we have many key corporate results in U.S These would decide the future course of action. LIC is expected to come with IPO in the first week of May. They have reduced the size from 5% to 3.5%. Also there is a good discount of retail allotment. These are some positives coming out of IPO Market. U.S markets are expected to remain volatile until FED meet. Our markets do follow global cues but we are outperforming all global markets in short run. Nifty might Trade between 16980 to 17220

Pre - Market Analysis (21st April 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Right now Dow futures are higher. Though there is a dip from the highest point. There's a news that Russia is testing a missile nuke Threats of missile attacks and nuclear attacks still around the corner. There's a dip in Global markets due to this. Asian markets are mixed  SGX Nifty is up 30-40 points. Tuesday last hour there was a shock in markets. Nifty and Bank Nifty both collapsed suddenly without any major news. I tried hard to look for some negatives but there was hardly any. Such sudden crashes make fear creep into longs. People are afraid to go long as they do not know which news might damage and have an impact on markets yet again. Right now I sense markets are in a range of 17000 to 17350. Though for a brief moment we broke 17k and closed below. That was just an irrational move. Market on close to close basis are at same level as on last expiry. Volatility within this has been huge. Hdfc twins looked like they have fin

Pre - Market Analysis (19th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. Right now Dow futures are slightly higher  Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is up 30-40 points. Yesterday was the day of index heavyweights. That too , particularly Infosys and HDFc twins. HDFC Bank contributed 500 points for Bank Nifty fall. These 3 stocks combined have contributed for 200 point in Nifty yesterday. HDFC Bank in spite of posting good numbers is seeing a massive hit. HDFC Ltd is also bearing the brunt due to the same. In there something Market knows and we don't. Or this is a short term pain? After merger news hdfc bank hit a high of 1700+ Now it's below 1400. This is a 300 point fall in less than trading sessions. These stocks have been making Market highly volatile than ever before. Many retailers have been trapped at higher levels. These big institutions offload at higher levels and trap retail. FII's have sold for 6500 crores yesterday whereas DII's bought for 3500 crores While it's unfortunate , e

Pre - Market Analysis (18th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Thursday. Asian markets are all lower. Dow futures are lower right now. SGX Nifty is down 250 points. Indicating a huge gap down at the open. Reason is the Global markets underperformance plus not so good corporate results. Infosys has disappointed and missed earnings by street estimates. Infy ADR was down 9% in last 2 trading sessions in U.S Hdfc bank also missed earnings but asset quality has been improved. Today we can expect huge gap down openimg in infy. Hdfc bank has limited downside left because it has already fallen a lot after the merger news. 17150-17200 is a strong support on Nifty and this is where 200 DMA kicks in. If you are a Bull this is a large support area. Markets are oversold and this offers a good opportunity to go long. Nect support comes in at 17k. If global markets keep declining then no support would work. Bank Nifty 200 DMA kicks in at 36800. Bank Nifty looks much stronger than Nifty currently as IT isn't included in

Pre - Market Analysis (13th April 2022) U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. After a big gap up after Inflation numbers there was a heavy profit booking seen. But right now Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty is up 30-40 Points. Yesterday U.S Inflation was expected at 8.4% It came in at 8.5%. So it was mostly as per expectations. I think this Interest rate hike fear has been taken was too much negatively. 2003-07 India had the biggest Bull market with huge rate hikes. Plus inflation seems to be topping out soon. As and when it tops out and starts going lower we could witnesss another significant rally. That's for future but right now I sense Nifty could fall back to 17600-17800 sort of a range. Bank Nifty is much stronger than Nifty. It's within 37500-38000 range band since long time. Breaking out of 38000 will provide further steam to it. Bank Nifty gaining strength could also edge nifty higher. Today it the last Market day of the week. And we have a long wee

Pre - Market Analysis (12th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Nasdaq has fallen more than 1000 points in just a week. Asian markets are now lower. SGX Nifty is down 150 points. We are again having a huge gap down today. Global markets are under pressure because of high inflation and rising bond yields. Today , U.S Inflation is set to be out and also we will have india inflation data as well. U.S Inflation is expected to be at a 40 year high of 8.2%. Indian Inflation at 6.4% For this whole year , Inflation and rising bond yield fears will be troubling us. This is not going to be an easy year to make money. Midcaps have been outperforming this month compared to Index. Midcap index is up 4-5% for the month whereas Nifty is up 1-2%. This shows that broader markets are doing much better compared to Index. TCS declared results yesterday and the street doesn't look too happy about it. Also Nasdaq crash will have IT stocks under pressure. The main problem for us is HDFC twins. As and when FII's wish

Pre - Market Analysis (11th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. Dow Jones closed slightly higher. S&P 500 was flat and Nasdaq is very weak. Right now , Dow futures are lower. SGX Nifty is down 100 points. So we are in for a gap down opening today. Friday was a quite interesting day. As expected , RBI policy was a status quo. Nifty broke Thursday low of 17640 and traded below for quite some time. And then for a short squeeze. All the shorts were trapped and we had a big rally. Most importantly , India VIX was down 7% on Friday. I expect markets to consolidate between 17600 to 18100 for a while. I do not see a reason to be excessively bearish now. Markets went from 17700 to 18100 because of hdfc twins. And then crashed to 17600 because of these both stocks. These both stocks have given up all of their gains and are back to Pre merger levels. There is very limited downside now for these stocks and expecting these stocks to bottom out soon 17500 to 17600 is a strong buy zone on Nifty. Also earnings se

Pre - Market Analysis (8th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. For the first time after many days we had a positive closing yesterday. Dow futures right now are slightly higher. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is up 10-20 points. Yesterday was again a disappointing day for the Bulls  Nifty again closed at the lowest point of the day dragged by HDFC twins. These both stocks have been making markets highly volatile. FII's were selling from a couple of days but their selling amount was not that large. Yesterday we had a 5000 crore number from FII. This was evident from the price action we had witnessed yesterday. From the day Honourable FM gave a statement indirectly saying FII's are not thay relevant & praised retailers. These FII's have started to show true colour. They have been selling on a daily basis from that day. Most important event today is the RBI policy. I feel markets have factored in negatives in the last 3 days fall. Today I expect RBI to maintain status quo. So we mig

Pre - Market Analysis (7th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Dow futures right now are slightly lower. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is down 1000-120 points. We have yet another gap down today. U.S Markets are going through a correction phase due to increase in inflation and fed corcerns. Yesterday Fed released its minutes and pointed out almost 1.5% interest rate hike combined throughout the year. This is making U.S markets jittery. Due to which we are witnessing gap downs. Brent crude fell 5% yesterday and that's a good news for us. I get the sense that this is just a passing correction. 17700 is a very strong support. Until we break 17700 this Market is a long. Once Market absorbs all this news , it will be up in double speed. We might consolidate for some days near 17700-17650 levels and then start fresh upside. Stoploss for your long positions should be at 1760p on Nifty. 17800 PE & 17900 , 18000 CE added huge open interest. 17800 CE also has added some open interest. So today'

Pre - Market Analysis (6th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Dow futures right now are slightly lower. Asian markets are down. SGX Nifty is down 120-150 points. Yesterday after a long time we again had some Volatility. SGX Nifty indicated 100 point gap up yesterday but we opened flat. Then it was a see-saw ride throughout. Market at one point of time turned green but again it was sold into. Market closing at the lowest point of the day indicates it was a profit booking day. After a huge rally there will naturally be some profit booking visible. So now we might go into Consolidation phase before rallying further. 17800 is a strong support for Nifty. 37000 for bank Nifty. After such huge rally everybody is long on the markets. Such one sided consensus often takes the Market on the other side and that's what we are witnessing right now. Market would attract more shorts / consolidate and then get further steam. Until then we should look for opportunities to go long. This is still a buy on dip Marke

Pre - Market Analysis (5th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Dow futures right now are slightly lower. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is up 80-90 points. April series has started with a bang. Nifty rallied 200 points on Friday and most of it was contributed in the last hour of trade. Yesterday again just before opening there was a big breaking news. The merger of HDFC Ltd and hdfc Bank. SGX Nifty was down 30 points yesterday. But due to this news there was a huge buying in HDFC twins. And we had a huge gap up. FII's who have been selling these 2 stocks left right and centre since 6 Months got trapped. This propelled huge short squeeze. Yesterday all the rally has been contributed by these 2 stocks itself. Both FII's & DII's were net buyers again yesterday. We have had a fantastic rally from 15700 to 18100 in just a Month time. This could easily go on till 18500. Then we have to look for all time highs to be taken out to get further momentum. Expect consolidation between 18000 t

Pre - Market Analysis (4th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed marginally higher on Friday. Dow futures are now lower. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is down 30-40 points. April series has started with a bang. Nifty rallied 200 points on Friday and most of it was contributed in the last hour of trade. India VIX crashed 12% intraday. This is something amazing and out of the box. For the last 6 months markets have been very volatile and India VIX was always above 20. For the first time after many trading sessions it has come below 20. India VIX below 20 indictes stability in the Market and it's beneficial for the option sellers. Also it indicates that market has very limited downside from here on. Chances of Market going higher are more. Not much development over the weekend. Russia - Ukraine is an ongoing problem. Pakistan military is likely to take over Imran khan. Whether that would happen peacefully or through protests is a matter to look into. Pre war high was 17606 on Nifty. We have crossed it significant

Pre - Market Analysis (1st April 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. It was the last day of the Financial year and investors seemed to have taken out some profits. Our markets were firm and we're trading within a flat range yesterday. SGX Nifty is down 50-60 points 17400-17425 is a very good support zone immediately. This is the zone to go long at first with 30-50 point stoploss. This is a buy on dip Market. FII's & DII's both have turned net buyers since last 2 trading sessions. This indicates strength and momentum on the upside immediately. Right now Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are flat. First couple of trading sessions decide the course for the whole month. If we manage to cross 17500 and sustain then doors for 17800 is open. 17600 is the pre war low so this will act as a next week resistance after 17500. India VIX was higher slightly yesterday. Bank Nifty is near 200 DMA and it has still some unfinished business. 38000 could easily surpass on the Bank Nifty from here. This wil