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Showing posts from January, 2022

Pre - Market Analysis (31st Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Most importantly , S&P 500 VIX crashed 10%. There was huge Volatility in global markets due to Fed event. Markets remain volatile only when they have topped out or have bottomed out. Right now I feel we have bottomed out at 16850. Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty is at 17250. Indicating a gap up of 150 points. The range for nifty is 16850 to 17350. From 17350 we fell all the way lower to 17100. This range would continue until the budget. Upside breakout after the budget has higher probability. Last year as well Market crashed before budget. There was no big positive from the budget but Market shot up after the budget. I feel all the negatives have been factored in. A stable budget could provide huge short covering. Nifty might Trade between 17100 to 17400 today.

Pre - Market Analysis (21st Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Most importantly , S&P 500 VIX closed above 25. This is a disturbing sign of option writers. When VIX goes higher put options go higher but CE do not fall proportionally. It looks like a short term Correction has begun in U.S Market. Asian markets and Dow futures are lower now. Just a few days ago , Nifty made a high of 18350. Yesterday's low was 17650. This is a massive correction of 700 points already. We are correcting because of Global Markets. A good thing happening due to this is we are going into Budget with less optimism. A positive or a no negative budget can turnaround this Market. Until then , I think we have to bear this pain. Yesterday was a downward trending day with last hour providing short covering rallies. Next support for nifty now is at 17500. Yesterday SGX Nifty hit a high of 17900 as Dow was up 500 points in first half. In 2nd half Dow fell 900 points from high and SGX crashed to 17700. Nifty might Trade betw

Pre - Market Analysis (20th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Most importantly , S&P 500 VIX closed 25% higher. This is a disturbing sign of option writers. When VIX goes higher put options go higher but CE do not fall proportionally. It looks like a short term Correction has begun in U.S Market. Asian markets and Dow futures are slightly higher now. SGX Nifty is down 50 points near 17900. Today we have weekly expiry. Next expiry we have only 4 trading sessions. Market has reversed from 18350 and now has become a sell on rise Market. Selling is so severe in first half as soon as we open. Both FII's & DII's are net sellers since last 2 days. Looks like retail has to be bear the pain. Bajaj Finance after declaring fantastic results scaled all time high yesterday. As soon as ATH were hit selling began. It fell almost 10% from highs yesterday. Hoping some stability today due to expiry etc. Yesterday's low of 17880 should be crutial support today. 18000 should act as an immediate resi

Pre - Market Analysis (19th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. During our Trading hours , U.S markets were lower by 1.5% on all Indices. This was due to rise in Bond Yields and Crude prices. Dow futures and Asian markets are lower now. SGX Nifty is down 20-30 Points. Yesterday during trading hours news broke out that FM Nirmala Sitharaman is going to address an Important economic issue  People were anticipating some reforms due to COVID. But it was actually more of Political one than Economical. This has even more dented the sentiment of investors. Bajaj Finance came up with excellent results yesterday. Yesterday was a high volatile trading day. Nifty tested 18350 and then reversed significantly. Today as well there would be weakness in the Markets  18000 is a strong support both on weekly and monthly basis. This should provide cushion. 38000 is a strong support on Bank Nifty. We are likely to open near 38k on Bank Nifty. Texture is weak now until global Markets recover. Nifty might Trade between 180

Pre - Market Analysis (18th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets were closed Yesterday. Due to Martin Luther King Day. Yesterday for whole of the day U.S Futures were flat. Right now they are flat and Asian markets are slightly higher. SGX nifty is up by 10-20 Points. Yesterday we briefly broke out of 18300. Momentum was slow as global Markets were muted. Momentum is likely to pick up in coming time once we sustain above 18300. HDFC Bank closed a percent lower Yesterday. Everybody expected HDFC Bank to go higher Yesterday. Movement of a Stock after its results is very difficult to predict. Specially the day after results. Expecting both the HDFC Twins to stabilize from today. 18300 short straddle added large open interest yesterday. Option sellers are playing for a range of 18000 to 18600. We have 7 trading sessions left for expiry including today. So theta decay will be fast going ahead. DII's and FII's were net sellers yesterday yet we closed at the highest point of the day. This continues to be a buy on dip market.

Pre - Market Analysis (17th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. Right now Dow Futures and Asian markets are lower. SGX nifty is down 60-70 points near 18200. Last Friday as well we were almost having a similar set up. Global Markets were down and we opened gap down near 18150. During the day , this gap down was bought into. 18100 -18300 is the range for Nifty. Near 18100 is a good buying opportunity. In the past , I have noticed many times that in such broad ranges breakout usually happens on the higher side. So we have 90% chances of breakout above 18300. Whnen will this happen that nobody knows. Until then , buying dips close to 18100 is a good option. HDFC Bank has come up with results over the Weekend. These results look good. They are not too good nor too bad. It's an okay kind of results  HDFC Bank has been beaten up so much in last 1 Month. Even average results could charge up this Stock. 38000 is a big buying zone for bank Nifty. It has rallied and reversed almost 4 times from this level a

Pre - Market Analysis (14th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now U.S Markets and Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is trading near 18220. In spite of big fall in Global Markets , SGX Nifty is still down just by few points. Yesterday was a very rangebound expiry. We had a short covering in the end but it was mostly rangebound only. IT index was flat throughout. Infy had come up great set of numbers and everybody expected a rise in prices. But a small gap up also got sold into. Usually , on the expiry days moves get restricted because of option writers. Real action begins on the day after expiry. Today's action is important to watch out for. 18300 straddle added huge open interest yesterday. 18000 PE also added good open interest in monthly as well as weekly. Yesterday I gave a swing trading set up on Nifty. Buy at 18200 with stop of 18k and targets of 18400 and 18600 (1:2 risk reward). This set up still holds well. Nifty might Trade between 18140 to 18360 today.

Pre - Market Analysis (13th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday. Right now Dow futures are slightly lower. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is trading at 18330. Indicating a 100 point gap up today as well. This could be due to good results declared by IT companies. Infy in particular has come out with spectacular results  TCS and Wipro set of numbers also look appealing. Also today is weekly expiry and lot of call writing has taken place at higher levels from 18200 to 18400. So this gap up could cause option writers specially call writers in trouble. Yesterday the ViX was also down 3%. Option premiums are quite low now considering January month end expiry is quite far. Inflation data is also high in India near about 5.5%. Which is a worrying sign and could invite rate hikes by RBI in future. I feel we are in a pre budget rally and this could fire till 18600. From there we should re consider bullish stance. Any sort of dip towards 18200 is a  buying opportunity for the day. Right now we have a good sw

Pre - Market Analysis (12th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Right now Dow futures are flat. Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty is indicating a huge gap up of 150 points at 18220. This is quite a big gap up and also many call writers have been trapped at lower strikes. These call writers will face more problem in today's gap up. If we open near 18200 it's a good place to take profits off and sit aside for some time. We have lots of events today and Market bullishness indicates that insiders might know the outcome. These people start building positions before the actual event takes place. It's high chances that these events will be Market friendly. Inflation data in U.S expected to be 7.1% and I think U.S markets have already factored in the same. So even if we get this number markets would likely ho higher. IT Stocks are expected to post good results as Accenture has posted good results this Quarter. The only worrying problem is rising COVID cases. Market fell in panic when Omicron fi

Pre - Market Analysis (11th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets at one point of time were crashing. Dow Jones down 600 points , S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 2% each. This is because Goldman Sachs predicted there would be 4 rate hikes for the year. Inflation is expected to be 7.1% which is quite a lot to worry if it happens In reality. Due to all this , there was a panic selling in first half  In the Second half everything recovered and all is well now. U.S Futures and Asian markets are higher now. SGX Nifty is flat. This Wednesday , we will be having lots of news flow in our Markets. Inflation data by U.S , Fed statement , IIP Data , Infosys & TCS set to declare results. All this will be coming after the Market hours. This is making the World Markets jittery. Coming to India , we have closed at the highest point of the day yesterday. Both on Nifty and Bank Nifty. Momentum is so strong on the higher side that even a minor dip is being bought into. Yesterday Nifty tested 17900 and Bank Nifty tested 38000 and the dip go

Pre - Market Analysis (10th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. U.S reported poor job numbers data and that led to selling in the Market. Asian markets on Friday and today are outperforming global Markets. SGX Nifty is at 17930. Market has reversed twice from levels of 17900-17950. We are likely to open near the resistance. 17900 CE has added good open interest on Friday. 18000 CE has the highest open interest both in weekly and monthly options. Markets are likely to face pressure at these levels. Bank Nifty 38000 CE has added highest open interest. This week is going to be quite important for the Market. This is because we are going to have lots of news flow. India and U.S both will be announcing inflation data. IIP data will also be announced by India. IT companies are set to declare results on Wednesday. This would be coming in after Market hours. So this expiry could be turbulant considering all such news in hands. 17650 to 17950 is my range for Nifty. Unless any of the level breaks on upside or o

Pre - Market Analysis (7th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday. U.S Markets did consolidate yesterday but with huge Volatility. Consolidation with huge Volatility indicates either a bottom or a top is made in the short term. Either of these 2 , we will get to know in coming days. Right now U.S Futures are higher. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is flat at 17820. Yesterday was a volatile session in our Markets as well. Nifty and Bank Nifty went to 17650 and 37000 respectively. DII's supported the Markets at lower levels to provide some recovery. IT Index has been the laggard. It's down 4-5% in last 3 sessions. Bank Nifty has been outperforming yesterday. Yesterday as well Bank Nifty was down 0.3% but Nifty closed about a percent lower. This is because of IT Stocks underperformance. Market is Bullish , yesterday I feel was a Dip in the ongoing uptrend. FII's sold for 2000 crores yesterday , we have to see whether its a one off selling or they continue to sell in such big numbers. 17600 is

Pre - Market Analysis (6th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Nasdaq crashed 500+ points yesterday. Dow Jones and S&P were also weak. In the Afternoon Dow Futures were positive on the back of good jobs data Expectation. As Markets opened Fed minutes were presented. In minutes there were talks about Increase in interest rates and reducing bond purchase. There was also a discussion on Reducing liquidity in the economy. This will be done in a staggered manner. This posted a dent on the Bullish sentiment and caused markets to fall in panic. U.S VIX was up 16% YESTERDAY. Due to all this SGX Nifty is indicating an open near 17800. I feel this is a good gap down to enter into. 17750-17720 should act as good support levels for the day. Once Global Markets start to stabilize we will resume uptrend. Yesterday both FII's and DII's were net buyers. Today is weekly expiry and this gap down might create panic in first half. Post that we can stabilize and can expect a recovery. Bank Nifty looks strong

Pre - Market Analysis (5th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday. Even though Dow Jones closed higher but S&P 500 and Nasdaq were particularly weak. Right now Dow futures and Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is Trading at 17800. Some profit booking in U.S Markets is good logically as it has been trading at all time high since a Month. Coming to Indian Markets , we have had a fantastic rally from 16400 to 17800. This is what happens in Bull Market. Corrections and Rallies both happen at a rapid pace. Yesterday I expected Markets to consolidate but again we had a good rally yesterday as well. Today Global Markets are not showing great strength so we may consolidate for the day with some Volatility. One interesting thing about yesterday. As soon as Markets opened near 17700 we fell to 17600 in a matter of minutes. How quickly was this dip bought into. In just 10 minutes the dip got bought into. This shows the strength of the Bulls. Today as well I expect some dip to come. It may be 50-80 points or ma

Pre - Market Analysis (4th Jan 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Right now U.S futures & Asian markets are lower.  SGX Nifty is at 17620. Yesterday was once again a Fantastic day for the Bulls. After Friday's breakout Market showed fresh Expansion and momentum on the higher side. 50 DMA of 17516 has been breached decisively yesterday. FII's have bought 900 cr yesterday but the rally seemed like they have bought for 9000 crores. Now the big question is "What next from here"? Generally after 2 days of non - stop rally , big players tend to book profits on the 3rd day. Today there are good chances of a Consolidation with mild positive bias. Run away rally like yesterday should not be expected. I somehow feel Market is expecting some positives In the budget. This can be termed as a pre - budget rally for the markets. Another Possibility is good corporate results expectations. These 2 factors seem to be driving the markets higher. We would get better clarity after some days when the e

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd Jan 2022)

U.S Markets were muted on Friday. Right now U.S futures & Asian markets are higher  SGX Nifty is at 17400. Friday was a pleasant surprise for our Stock Market. Despite all the Global Markets against us we had a weekly breakout on both Nifty and Bank Nifty. 35k and 17300 on Nifty and Bank Nifty were taken out decisively. India VIX is now near 16. Markets are trending higher but at a nominal pace. Pace is not too violent as we had In November & December. Another significant news is FII's buying. FII's were net buyers for around 570+ crores on Friday. We need to see if this continues or Friday was just a one off day. Usually the first trading day sets the tone for the entire month. Friday's price action indicates Markets to be trending higher at a slow pace. Now we have been turned into a buy on dip Market. Any sort of dips should be bought into. 17300 PE and 17500 CE has the highest open interest in weekly options. 17300 PE closed at 90. So if Nifty breaks