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Showing posts from October, 2020

Pre - Market Analysis (30th October 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. But After Market hours , it Witnessed a huge sell off. All major frontline stocks of Dow Jones like Twitter , Amazon etc are lower. It seems more of a relief rally that was witnessed Yesterday. Asian Markets are also Trading Positive. SGX Nifty is Trading around 11640. This Market keeps changing in the Blink of an eye. Reasons for such heavy Volatility are a lot. U.S Elections , Corona Virus 2nd wave , Stimulus delayed , European Countries are again resorting to nation wide lockdown. So the picture is highly Uncertain. Any type of rally or pull backs should be sold into heavily now. But US futures are lower now. India VIX is constantly raising. Which depicts heavy Volatility ahead. I don't expect markets to fall like it happened in the Month of March. I definitely expect a correction. 400-500 Points on Nifty. 1000-1200 Points on Bank Nifty seems on the cards now. Time in Uncertain , nobody can predict when will it happen. As Markets t

Pre - Market Analysis (29th October 2020)

Dow fell around 800 Point's Yesterday. Dow future are up 1% now. So SGX Nifty was recovered a bit from lows. Now trading near 11700. Today is the Monthly Expiry. So it's expected to be quite a Volatile trading session. U.S VIX has crossed 40 , India VIX is likely to cross 30 this depicts the Volatility we have to face. 12000 seems to be quite a big Resistance now and according to me it won't be crossed so early. Trade remains to sell on Rallies. Sell off's are quite sharp and violent. FII's have turned net sellers and sold quite a big amount Yesterday. DII's are constantly booking profits at higher levels. World markets are worried about the 2nd wave of Corona virus. There has been no development in Vaccine now. Stimulus cancelled until U.S Elections. All bad news are striking markets door now. Traders need to be highly cautious now. Specially option writers need to very cautious. Whatever it is , settle your Positions Intraday  As the gap ups and ga

Pre - Market Analysis (28th October 2020)

US markets closed mixed Yesterday. But due to 2nd wave of Corona Virus spreading faster than expected. Markets are under pressure. Global Markets seem to have started into the phase of Correction. Asia is stronger compared to Global Markets as 2nd wave hasn't been hit. Until when will this last , only time will say. Markets are still trading in this tight range of 300 Points. 2 days left for monthly expiry. Will we get a breakout or breakdown? Or we will just Consolidate. Chances of Consolidation are quite high. Now a sector which could rise in the generic medicine sector. All the Companies who do Testing , provide energy drinks etc might be the next theme to catch. Pharma ,IT have already performed well and chasing these stocks wouldn't lead to anything great. One has to identify new themes to make big money. FII's have been buying whereas DII's have been selling. October series is nearing its end. Next 2 days will be crutial for the Markets. Markets could

Pre - Market Analysis (27th October 2020)

U.S futures were down 2% in our trading hours Yesterday. This caused a big sell off in the Markets. U.S VIX was up 15% Yesterday. India VIX slowly inching higher. Market is collapsing quickly now a days. Reliance was a major contributor for Yesterdays fall. Reason of huge sell off in Reliance was Amazon had won the Arbitration case. Now U.S futures are mildly positive. SGX Nifty is Trading around 11825. The range of 11700-12000 continues to hold. Markets trading Violently within this range. As its monthly Expiry , Expecting a big move. Which side this move will come , time will tell. If Markets feel like Second Wave of Corona Virus is getting into India. The fall would be much more severe. Many foreign countries have been already witnessing second wave panic. India VIX if crosses above 30 then Option sellers should be very very careful. VIX above 30 indicates huge Volatility. Reliance is a big heavy weight in Nifty it has to perform well for markets to go higher. Right now

Pre - Market Analysis (26th October 2020)

US markets closed Flat on Friday. Today Asian markets are also Flat. Markets are in a Consolidation zone. They are waiting for some big Announcements like Stimulus , Elections , Corporate Results etc. SGX Nifty is also Flat. There are many Negative news floating around. RBI Governer Shaktikanta Das has been tested positive for Corona Virus. U.S Government stimulus deal has not happened. Corona Virus patients increasing in U.S , Emergency being declared in Spain as Second Wave starts to intensify. There is also News floating around that Kotak Bank is looking to acquire IndusInd Bank. This seems more of a rumour now. Kotak Bank should come up with a official confirmation soon. India might also witness second wave of Corona Virus by November End. Remember, Second Wave of Corona Virus is doubly Deadlier than First Wave. This week is very Important for the Markets. As majority of the Nifty companies are coming up with it's results. We will continue to trade in the range 1178

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd October 2020)

US markets closed slightly higher. MOSTLY FLAT ONLY. Asian Markets are all Flat. SGX Nifty is also Flat. Nifty has been Trading Violently between 11650 to 12000. We were not able to break and Sustain above 12k. U.S are playing with Stimulus now. There is no confirmed news just Rumours floating around. Meanwhile theres also a news floating around of 2nd stimulus from Indian Govt. Remember , last time market Crashed when Govt Announced Stimulus. Hope they don't come up with something similar or we may witness another crash. So lots of news coming up without confirmation. DII's have been selling Aggressively now. FII's have been buying but DII's selling figure is over powering the FII buying. Seeing all this we can expect Consolidation only. We need some trigger to cross 12k decisively. Right now I do not see any sector having leadership to make Nifty cross 12k. So Trade within this range. Range is 11650 to 12000. So buy near lower end of the range , sell near

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd October 2020)

US markets closed lower Yesterday. Asian Markets are also Majorly Negative. There is no announcement of Stimulus so far. Negotiations seems to be going on & only discussion going on. With Elections around the Corner this will be a major event. Yesterday was a high volatile day. Nifty fell from 12000 to 11790 in about an hour and then recovered 150 Points in next hour. All this happened very quickly. Movement was so fast & Quick. India VIX is rising contineously and major events lined up. All these events adding up to Volatility. These huge swings become quite difficult to handle. Yesterday I had sold Put Options expecting a breakout on the higher side. But that didn't work and Markets started to fall. Sold more calls to Manage and Markets rose again. Currently at around 1-1.5% loss on my Overall Capital. Expecting to come out without loss today. Today also I think Markets will be highly Volatile. We might also witness a big fall today as previous expiry. As 1200

Pre - Market Analysis (21st October 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are all Trading mildly Positive. Stimulus talks are going on in U.S SGX Nifty is Trading around 11930. Yesterday another news that PM Modi is going to address the Nation. It was just related to Precautionary measures and nothing much. So that is a Non - Event for the Markets. Nifty is very close to 12000. This is a make or break level for Nifty. If we decisively cross this level then we can expect further Momentum and steam in the Markets. This will be the 2nd time where Nifty is trying to cross 12000. Yesterday Reliance came up with 5G news Announcement. This might trigger a Positive sentiment in Reliance. Reliance being the highest Weightage component in Nifty. If it gives a big move then it will definitely carry Nifty with itself. FII's have started buying. So every Possibility that Nifty may give a breakout above 12k. HUL came up with good results Yesterday so that might trigger a good rally in FMCG Stocks. Nifty mig

Pre - Market Analysis (20th October 2020)

US markets closed more than a percent lower Yesterday. Asian Markets are Flat. SGX Nifty is Trading Near Yesterday closing near 11850. The reason why SGX Nifty is flat despite a big fall in U.S Markets is Because Dow Futures are up by half a percent now. U.S Markets dont like Uncertainty , any market doesn't like Uncertainty. Due to Stimulus talks being halted theres a lot of Uncertainty going around. This is causing profit booking in Emerging Markets. HDFC Bank came out with its results Yesterday. But the stock reacted mutedly on its Numbers. All other private banks were up 4-5% Yesterday. HDFC Bank was up about just a percent. So Expecting Markets to Consolidate now. Next 3 days we may expect Consolidation between 11700 to 12000. If any of these levels gets taken out then there will be a big rally towards that side. Until then one should play for this range. The Trend is intact and strong. There May be hiccups in between but the Trend will continue to follow. Another

Pre - Market Analysis (19th October 2020)

US markets closed Positive on Friday. Asian Markets are Trading Positive. SGX Nifty now near 11800. Stimulus talks have been set aside now by the U.S Govt. Trump seems to be waiting for the right time to announce the Stimulus. Just as Narendra Modi did surgical strike just before elections and made majority in his Favour. Trump seems to be making stimulus as his weapon for Elections. There will be heavy Volatility going forward. Many factors will contribute to the Volatility. Firstly the U.S Elections. Secondly Corona Virus second wave. Next the Corporate Results season has just begun. HDFC Bank is coming out with its results today. This will decide the Trajectory of Bank Nifty today. Bank Nifty has about 25% weightage in Nifty. So all together all factors seem that it's going to be another Volatile trading session today. After the results of all the IT stocks , all have witnessed severe profit booking as all the IT stocks have almost doubled in last 3 Months. Financial

Pre - Market Analysis (16th October 2020)

US markets closed lower Yesterday. Yesterday when our Markets were Trading , U.S Futures were down more than a percent. Yesterdays closing in U.S was somewhat better. The reason why we fell so much Yesterday was some expiry related issues. All the Put writers were trapped as its the expiry. Which leads to a big crash. So expiry days if major levels get taken out one should expect big Moves. Asian Markets have recovered some of their losses. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11750. Volatility will be quite high until the U.S Elections. One should always hedge postions. Without hedge and without Stoploss it can create disaster. I know many Put writers who lost 30-35% of the Capital due to Stubborn attitude. Also Big sharp falls like Yesterday in Bull Markets is a great Opportunity to enter into. In Bull Market , Bears Generally have only 1 day to enjoy. Bulls come back swiftly and roaring. Last Expiry too (September End) Nifty crashed but then went up 1000 Points. Nifty might Trade b

Pre - Market Analysis (15th October 2020)

US markets closed lower Yesterday. Stimulus has been delayed and there has been no news. So due to this there was some profit Booking. Asian markets are mostly Negative. SGX Nifty is Trading near 12000. Meanwhile , Infosys has come up with Terrific results. Wipro results were not that Great so we Witnessed profit booking in IT Stocks Yesterday. Infosys results look very good. Will be Noteful to see how the stock will react to the same. First hour is very critical for our Markets today. If we spend some time above 12k then possibilities of 80-100 points upward movement open up. 12000 CE has got the highest open interest in weekly options. Yesterday Market reversed significantly in last hour. Nifty and Bank Nifty Rallied by a percent each. Generally Expiry days we witness some big Moves. Today's movement will be Noteful to see. Momentum is so strong towards Upside. Trade remains to sell Puts once we cross 12k and Sustain. If we do not Sustain above 12k then ITM Straddles

Pre - Market Analysis (14th October 2020)

US markets closed Lower Yesterday. A Normal profit booking after a Fantastic rally. Markets are Consolidating now. Asian Markets are all Trading lower. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11870. Down by about 50 points. 12000 as acting as a stiff resistance now. At least for a short term. Once this breaks then look to initiate longs. Until then look to build Positions towards down side. Wipro declared results today. But they were not as per Street Expectations. Stock has already Rallied and doubled in last 2 Months. Expecting some profit booking here. IT stocks have entered into profit booking mode. Corona Vaccine is not going to come at least for next 3-4 Months. Many Research Agencies have paused Trials after getting Negative Results. FII's have been buying continuously for last 10 days now. Whereas DII's are booking profits. Expecting a few weeks on Consolidation in the Markets. We have run up too fast. Nifty might Trade between 11780-11960 today.

Pre - Market Analysis (13th October 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. Trump won't let the U.S Market fall before Elections. This is the fourth straight day where U.S Markets were up by a percent. So the Momentum seems very strong. One formula is for sure "Until U.S Markets keep going higher we will not fall" much. We may or may not go up in line with their Markets. But definitely we won't fall. Yesterday Indian Markets were freezed for about 5 Minutes and NSE rates were not reflecting. These technical Glitches need to resolve immediately. Traders pay all the Requisite taxes so why don't the Exchanges provide them with well Equipped Technology. Maybe all this was due to Power Cut in Mumbai and we expect this doesn't happen Constantly. Wipro is likely to come up with results today and the Market expects something big out of them. The ITM Straddle up Wipro is 15% higher. Which states that after the result we may expect some big move in the stock. Big players get Information before han

Pre - Market Analysis (12th October 2020)

US markets closed Positive on Friday. Asian Markets are also Positive. SGX Nifty just above 12k. More than 1000 Point rally in last 2 weeks. Bank Nifty still not even near it's previous highs. October series has been just One way rally for the Bulls. Now 12k is also achieved. Broader Market still not upto the Mark as the Nifty. Few sectors and Stocks contributing this rally. Financial sector is still a laggard. Results season begins again.  WIPRO is coming up with it's results today. 12k should act as a Resistance level at least for some time. If we get a closing above 12k today then next target is 12200. So today's closing is very very important as far as im concerned. U.S Stimulus also is a major event. If that gets clearance then all time high won't be far. We are around 4.5% away from all time highs now. A word of caution also not to be overly Optimistic. Go long with proper Stoploss and not just Blindly. Because this Market cab turn on its head. Next 3

Pre - Market Analysis (8th October 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are all in Green. SGX Nifty is up by 50-60 Points. Today is the weekly Expiry so we may have a trending day today. Once Nifty crosses 11800 and Sustains above it previous high then we may witness more rally towards the end of the day. As conveyed Yesterday , view remains to buy on dips. This remains the Strategy as long as we are in uptrend. IT stocks are in a league of their own. Outperforming continuously from past 2 Months since results declaration. Nifty is about to complete a 1000 Points rally today from the last Monthky expiry dip. Bank Nifty is still Underperforming but catch up play Possible. The idea remains to follow the Trend , stick to it rather than Presuming too much. Reliance is also likely to Outperforming once it raises more Investments. Everything is looking fairly bullish now. This expiry would continue to be the same  Usually on the expiry day the Trend continues. IT stocks are a buy even now. As these Bu

Pre - Market Analysis (7th October 2020)

US markets closed more than a Percent lower Yesterday. Trump has halted the second Stimulus. He Announced that Stimulus will be given a consideration after November Elections. But Asian Markets are mostly Postive. SGX Nifty is around 11700. Trump halted Stimulus talks. There has been a one way rally for Nifty from 10800 to 11700 is less than 10 trading sessions. 11800 was the recent high made by us if this gets broken then 12000 is the target. But I think it would take some time and wont happen Instantly. In this low Liquidity and Volatile Market delivery option selling is quite risky. Better to close Positions Intraday. The view remains strong buy on dip on both indices. Specially for Bank Nifty as it has been Underperforming from quite a long time. Also be prepared to handle Volatility. Shorters can explore short trade near 11800 on Nifty as that would be a huge resistance. FII's have turned net buyers. When they turn into buying mode after continue selling then such

Pre - Market Analysis (6th October 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. Trump has been discharged today so it's a positive. Asian markets are positive. SGX Nifty is up by 40 Points and Trading near 11570. Yesterday our Markets were very Bullish. IT Stocks contributed to entire Nifty rally. TCS on the verge of buy back Announcement was up 7.5% and Infy was up 3%. IT stocks have been clearly outperforming since last Month. FII's have turned buyers now and DII's sold Yesterday for the first time after many days. Expecting Markets to be Bullish to Sideways now. With IT Sector & Reliance taking over the Leadership it seems that downside is limited. Yesterday , surprisingly Banking stocks were also outperforming the Nifty. Interestingly VIX was up by 3% yesterday. Many people think that if VIX is high markets will fall. That's not true. VIX can go up even in a rising Market and also go up in a falling market. VIX going higher indicates a big move is on the cards. 11600 is a stiff resistance on N

Pre - Market Analysis (5th October 2020)

As soon as News emerged that Donald Trump has Tested Positive for Corona. Markets all over the World fell by 1-2% except China Market. (UNDERSTAND CHRONOLOGY HERE) He has released a Video on his Twitter timeline stating next 48 hours are very critical for him and he is in a good condition now. So Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty was below 11300 on Friday when Trump news has highlighted. But now SGX Nifty trading around 11400. Heavy news flow lined up for this week. U.S Stimulus. Trump Health. Interest on Interest case in Supreme Court. U.S Elections etc. Expecting Markets to remain highly Volatile in the midst of all this. FIIs have turned net buyers after selling for more than 20k crore in last 2 weeks which is a positive. As trump tested positive , today's FII data will be interested to notice , whether they remain buyers or turn sellers. Reliance retail is attracting more investments. Reliance has bagged another cheque from GIC (Govt Investment Corporation of Sing

Pre - Market Analysis (1st October 2020)

US markets closed higher. Dow futures were Negative Yesterday after the debate. Asian Markets are higher  But overnight everything changed and now they are higher. SGX Nifty is more than 100 Points gap up. Today is expiry and tomorrow markets are closed , so this is going to be a long weekend. Yesterday my advice was to sell near 11300-11350 and that worked for the day. Now this Gap up is also a good Opportunity to sell into. Bank Nifty not looking much stronger. Nifty is more bullish than Bank Nifty. But after this big gap up buying doesn't match risk to return. FIIs continue to sell heavily  Whereas DII's are pumping in cash and Supporting our Markets. Yesterday they have sold for more than 700 crores. Bank Nifty is likely to be much more Volatile today. Option sellers should avoid Trading Bank Nifty today as Stoploss of both directions might get hit Stoploss for short trade on Nifty could be near 11420  Nifty might Trade between 11260-11440. stockmarketadvisory.i