Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from August, 2023

Monthly Expiry !! (31st August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are marginally higher.  3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is up 30-40 points. 5. For 4 consecutive trading sessions,  U.S Markets were higher. 6. U.S VIX is now below 14. 7. Yesterday was a muted kind of a day in the first half. 8. Markets were flat for most.of the day. 9. After 2 pm there was a sharp move in the markets. 10. Nifty broke the day low and once it was done nifty kept.om falling. 11. Similar stuff happened with Bank Nifty.  12. Yesterday the U.S GDP was revised to 2.1% 13. Existing GDP percentage was 2.3% 14. Lower the GDP , less the chances of a rate hike. 15. There is a huge divergence in the markets currently. 16. Mid and small caps have been flying and the large caps have been in pressure. 17. All.the major large caps like hdfc bank , Reliance , SBI etc are at monthly Lows. 18. Small and midcap stocks have been making fresh highs. 19. Nifty might trade between 19300 to 19450 today.

Lower Jobs , Markets rally !! (30th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are marginally higher.  3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is up 70-80 points. 5. For 3 consecutive trading sessions,  U.S Markets were higher. 6. This is a rare feat in August series. 7. Yesterday the U.S Jobs data were announced & the same were lower than expectations.  8. As they were lower than expectations,  the rate hike probability is reduced. 9. On this news , there was a huge short covering rally in U.S Markets. 10. Our Markets were choppy yesterday and were trading within a trading range. 11. 19300 PE has the highest open interest among Put Options. 12. 19400 CE has the highest open interest among the Call Options. 13. For the whole day yesterday,  Nifty was hovering within this range. 14. Bank Nifty too was quite flat. 15. Premiums are so low that one doesn't wish to sell options. 16. There is not much momentum to buy Options. 17. So just waiting and trading near the boundaries is

Choppy Markets!! (29th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are marginally higher.  3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is up 40-50 points. 5. Yesterday for 2 consecutive trading sessions,  U.S Markets were higher. 6. This is a rare feat in August series. 7. August series was very choppy and markets have been all over the place. 8. In such kind of markets , if there's a trending move for 2 consecutive trading days then it's good for traders. 9. I've been mostly trading intraday in August series. 10. As we do not have an idea what may happen the next day due to gap up or gap down. 11. Yesterday the markets have shot up from support levels. 12. Nifty reversed from 19250 and Bank Nifty reversed from 44200. 13. These 2 have become important support levels in the coming days  14. There could be erratic moves and reversals in this expiry as well as this is the final week of August expiry. 15. On the final week of expiry , there is huge Volatility.  16.

Insane Volatility!! (26th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday 2. Right now , Dow futures are marginally higher.  3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is up 40-50 points. 5. Friday as expected markets crashed after witnessing a gap down  6. There was no strength in the markets on Friday. 7. The Situation looked quite critical. 8. Best thing about Fridays rally in U.S Markets is the fall of U.S VIX. 9. U.S VIX Crashed 10% on Friday. 10. Have to see if the Indian Markets follow Global cues. 11. We have expiry coming and many positions get stuck throughout the month. 12. This is leading to quite heavy Volatility from quite some time now. 13. Nifty closed at the lowest level of August. 14. Bank Nifty has been outperforming nifty. 15. Jio Financials finally stopped going down which is a good news for our Markets. 16. Reliance support would come in Handy for Nifty 17. Have to trade with small sizes for starters in this market. 18. Whatever you do your stoploss would get hit in such kind of markets

Yesterday's high to be the top for August (25th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets crashed Yesterday. 2. Right now , Dow futures are marginally higher.  3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is down 60-70 points. 5. Yesterday could be termed as a big reversal day. 6. Both the Indices Nifty & Bank Nifty opened with huge gap ups. 7. Nifty touched 19600 and Bank Nifty hit 45k. 8. Stayed there for a brief moment and then started to reverse. 9. The reversal was so huge that Nifty kept falling down. 10. Bank Nifty also gave up all of its gains and was In red. 11. There was a major profit booking after a huge rally yesterday. 12. Many expiry option sellers have gone bankrupt yesterday.  13. Many of them have sold single digit puts in order to make easy profits instead made huge losses yesterday.  14. Option selling is not as easy money as its made visible. 15. Specially In these kind of markets it requires highest level of expertise to generate returns via option selling. 16. Nifty looks comparatively very weak wrt Bank Nifty.  17. After t

Banknifty to the Moon 🌙 (24th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is up 60-70 points. 5. Yesterday was a pleasant surprise day specially for Bank Nifty.  6. Markets have been trading in a tight range almost for last 2 weeks. 7. It was consolidating within a range. 8. Yesterday out of nowhere Bank broke out of its range. 9. Bank Nifty was facing resistance near 44100 on the higher level. 10. Yesterday this level got taken out. 11. As soon as this got taken out there was a huge rally ahead. 12. Nifty was higher by 50 points Yesterday.  13. Majority of the Nifty rally was contributed by Bank Nifty. 14. Bank Nifty single handedly took Nifty higher. 15. 19300 on Nifty and 44200 on Bank Nifty have become very strong support levels now. 16. Those who are long should trail their stoploss to the above levels. 17. Firstly , I expected a Pullback rally from last 2 days  18. Looking at yesterday's price action , this isn'

Consolidation!! (23th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is down 20 points. 5. Markets have been going through a sideways movement lately. 6. Markets have been stuck in a narrow and a tight range  7. Both the Indices , Nifty and Bank Nifty have been stuck In a tight range. 8. The only good thing for our Markets is the Mid & Small Cap rally. 9. Mid and small cap stocks have been on fire and have been defying gravity. 10. The latest Mutual Fund data suggests that money has been shifting from Large caps to Small caps and Mid cap funds. 11. When times are good and a particular type of investment performs people go on chasing it until it tops out. 12. Small caps and midcaps are the riskiest forms of investment. 13. These stocks could go in Bear market got years when times are tough. 14. The Valuations have also reached quite high in these stocks  15. I'm not saying that Mid and small cap stocks would start f

More Steam left for Pullback Rally !! (22nd Aug 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are slightly lower. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is flat. 5. Markets have been going through a volatile phase in August. 6. With no clear trend and gap ups / gap downs almost on daily basis. 7. Expecting August to be more of a sideways type of Month. 8. Today we also have the FIN Nifty expiry. 9. On the days of FIN Nifty expiry there is adder Volatility in the option contracts. 10. Markets have been trading in a very narrow band lately. 11. Range for nifty is 19250 to 19550. 12. Bank Nifty range is 43500 to 44200. 13. It's a very dull and reversing sort of market. 14. This sort of market is perfect for option seller point of view  15. Yesterday I had mentioned of a pullback rally and it happened exactly the same. 16. All the Global Markets had witnessed a pullback rally. 17. This pullback rally has some more Steam left before reversing out. 18. Keep in mind that this won't be a trending

Pullback Rally? (21st August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat on Friday. 2. Right now , Dow futures are slightly higher. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is up 20 points. 5. Markets have been going through a volatile phase in August. 6. With no clear trend and gap ups / gap downs almost on daily basis. 7. Expecting August to be more of a sideways type of Month. 8. Bank Nifty looks to have made a short term bottom. 9. Bank Nifty is finding heavy supports near 43500 levels. 10. Nifty has thrice hit 19260 and has failed to close below the same. 11. There's no fresh bearishness in the Markets. 12. More pressure is likely to enter only if we close below 19260. 13. Today's key trigger is Jio Financial services listing. 14. This could well decide the mood of the markets today. 15. Both the Indices , Nifty and Bank Nifty have supposedly hit a short term bottom and we can expect a short term pullback from here on. 16. Stoploss should be near the Fridays low of 19250 on Nifty and 43500 on Bank Nifty 1

Weekly Expiry !! (17th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are slightly higher. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is down 50 points. 5. Markets have been going through a volatile phase in August. 6. With no clear trend and gap ups / gap downs almost on daily basis. 7. Bank Nifty is the one facing the maximum heat. 8. Yesterday the IT index saved nifty. 9. The closing looks respectable on Nifty only due to IT index. 10. Yesterday I had given a hint for IT Stocks outperformance.  11. For the last 2 trading sessions , Nifty has been falling in first hour and then closing at the highest point of the day  12. We are in a sideways market but it's coming with huge Volatility.  13. Nifty and Bank Nifty both are in a sideways zone and both are highly Volatile.  14. Today we have weekly expiry and its expected to be rangebound as well. 15. 19350 to 19550 is the expected range for today's expiry. 16. If due to short covering 19500 gets crossed then we have room

Global Markets Crack !! (16th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are slightly higher. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is down 80 points. 5. Markets have been going through a volatile phase in August. 6. With no clear trend and gap ups / gap downs almost on daily basis. 7. Bank Nifty is the one facing the heat. 8. Bank of England continue to raise rates , China property market concerns & a better than expected wage numbers all create stir in the market  9. With better than expected wage data the rate hike fears still dominate the market. 10. U.S VIX climbed 11% Yesterday. 11. Fear has increased due to such incremental news. 12. IT Stocks expected to outperform in such environment where the currency expected to depreciate. 13. Monday was a highly Volatile trading day. 14. Nifty opened with minor gap down and had continued to go lower  15. It even broke the recent low of 19300 and made a fresh low of 19260. 16. From the lows of 19260 , Nifty recovered 200 point

Negative trend!! (14th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. 2. Right now , Dow futures are lower. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is down 50 points. 5. Markets have been going through a volatile phase in August. 6. With no clear trend and gap ups / gap downs almost on daily basis. 7. Bank Nifty is the one facing the heat. 8. Banks expected to maintain CRR limit will face liquidity crunch. 9. This will reduce the amount of loans circulating in the economy.  10. Bank Nifty and Nifty both are near their major support areas now. 11. 44k for Bank Nifty & 19380 thereabouts on Nifty.  12. Today tye trading volumes & liquidity could also be lesser due to a long weekend in place. 13. Tomorrow our Markets would be closed so all the action would be over to U.S Markets.  14. I sense that Markets are negative in short term but this isn't the time to sell. 15. Focusing purely on risk - reward equation.  16. The markets would be choppy and not largely trending. 17. One has to deal with i

RBI Effect !! (11th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. 2. All Indices closed flat. 3. Right now Dow futures are slightly higher. 4. Asian Markets are trading higher. 5. Gift Nifty is trading flat. 6. Yesterday was a perfect reversal day. 7. Nifty opened mildly lower and as soon as it opened it started to Crack. 8. Markets were waiting for the RBI Policy and markets were Choppy until then. 9. Then the policy and RBI didn't change the REPO RATE. 10. However the RBI tweaked with the CRR rate and said banks to maintain liquidity. 11. This was taken negatively by the markets as RBI tried to curb the Liquidity.  12. For whole of expiry yesterday markets traded In the range we had forecasted. 13. This is a very choppy market. 14. Generally , trading involves following and riding the trend but in this market you will be trapped if trend has been followed. 15. Markets are trading within the range but with huge Volatility.  16. Markets close at the highest point on a day. 17. Next day it closes a

Reversal !! (10th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. 2. All Indices closed in Red. 3. Last one hour U.S Markets fell sharply. 4. Right now Dow Futures are higher. 5. Gift Nifty is trading flat. 6. Yesterday was a perfect reversal day. 7. Nifty opened mildly lower and as soon as it opened it started to Crack. 8. First half Nifty was mostly lower and was hovering near 19500 thereabouts. 9. In spite of all global markets in Green , Nifty kept trading in red. 10. Bank Nifty underperformed significantly.  11. When Nifty was down by half a percent , Bank Nifty was down by more than a percent. 12. As I mentioned Bank Nifty range of 44500 to 45000 in my previous Blog. 13. Bank Nifty reversed exactly from 44550 levels. 14. Nifty reversed from 19500 and there was a huge short covering rally. 15. Today we have RBI Policy and expectation is status Quo. 16. Status Quo in precise means no change in rates. 17.  If RBI increases rates then it would be negative for markets  18. If they decrease rates the

Lack of Strength on the Upside (9th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. 2. All Indices closed in Red. 3. Last one hour U.S Markets recovered quite sharply. 4. At one point of time , U.S Markets were down more than a percent. 5. Reason is the Moodys downgrade for Banks. 6. Firstly it was FITCH , now it's Moodys 7. Markets in the Month of August have been quite Volatile. 8. Markets crashed all over the World in the August series as soon as FITCH downgraded the credit rating 9. The month of August started with heavy Bearishness. 10. Currently , as well markets have made a short term bottom at 19300 and recovered. 11. In spite of this , markets have been facing pressure on the upside. 12. Though the Mid & Small Cap stocks are in a huge bull market , Index doesn't look much tempting. 13. There is a weakness in both Nifty and Bank nifty  14. Gift Nifty is also indicating a gap down of 30-40 points.  15. Yesterday's high close to 19650 is a stiff resistance. 16. I would go long only when there'

Volatility at Peak !! (7th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. 2. All Indices closed in Red. 3. Apple announced its results and the IPhone sales were low. 4. On the other hand , Amazon announced amazing set of results  5. During the first half , U.S Markets were momentarily going higher. 6. All the indices were higher close to a percent each. 7. Suddenly in the 2nd half after the U.S jobs data markets fell. 8. The US Jobs data showed less jobs than actually anticipated.  9. This leads to recession fears due to which markets are down. 10. One thing is for sure , though INDIA VIX is at all time low the Volatility is super high. 11. On Friday,  SBI results were announced.  12. Results were outstanding but the Volatility in Bank Nifty was crazy. 13. Bank Nifty was moving 100 points in half a minute. 14. Nifty wasn't that volatile but Bank Nifty was unbearable.  15. Bank Nifty Volatility also added for Volatility in Nifty. 16. U.S VIX climbed 8% on Friday as well. 17. To be honest , this Credit dow

Bloodbath !! (4th August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly lower Yesterday. 2. All Indices closed in Red. 3. Nasdaq is the biggest underperformer in last 2 Trading sessions. 4. Right now , Dow Futures are lower. 5. Gift Nifty is down 20-30 Points.  6. Asian markets are mostly lower as well. 7. Last 2 days there has been a significant correction in our markets. 8. Reason is the drop in the U.S Credit rating by FITCH. 9. U.S Credit rating was dropped in Year 2011 as well. 10. That time markets crashed by more than 10%. 11. This has caused a sudden panic and sell off among all the markets. 12. Last 2 days, Nifty is down by more than 400 points. 13. Bank Nifty is down around 1000 points. 14. India VIX has risen significantly.  15. Markets are now bearish as they have closed below the support of 19500. 16. There seems more downward move to come looking at the current price action. 17. Also the Volatility is very high so the traders have to be mindful of the same. 18. Supports are breaking very easily In th

Consolidation (2nd August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. Dow Jones closed mildly in Green. 3. Rest of the indices closed lower. 4. Right now , Dow Futures is lower. 5. Gift Nifty is down 40-50 Points. 6. Asian markets are mostly lower as well. 7. It's a sort of Consolidation going on in the markets. 8. Markets are trading flat in between 19600 to 19800. 9. Within this range , Nifty is swinging like a pendulum. 10. Bank Nifty range is 45300 to 45800. 11. Both the Indices are moving at tandem. 12. Yesterday's expiry was quite flat. 13. FIN Nifty traded flat for whole of the expiry. 14. All option buyers in FIN Nifty lost huge. 15. Markets are likely to consolidate for few more sessions. 16. 19600 is the buying zone. 17. 19800 is the selling zone. 18. Unless we don't get any signs of range breakout we won't have to take one side view  19. Nifty might trade between 19600 to 19800 today. 20. Post this fed rate hike markets have become dizzy. 21.  stockmarketadvisory.in

Roller Coaster Ride !! (1st August 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. All the indices closed in Green. 3. Gift Nifty is up 40-50 Points. 4. Asian markets are mostly higher as well. 5. Yesterday it was a trending day. 6. It was an upward trending day for the markets. 7. Nifty opened with a mild gap up which got sold into. 8. Then it tested the Fridays low and then started moving higher non-stop 9. Similar was the case with tye Bank Nifty. 10. Bank Nifty tested Fridays low of 45300 thereabouts and started rallying ahead. 11. Fridays low for both the indices is a very strong support now. 12. I sense this could the short term low atleast for a week now. 13. Today we have FIN Nifty expiry. 14. I have started trading in FIN Nifty lately. 15. Must admit that it's one of the most VOLATILE instrument to trade specially on expiry days. 16. In this low VIX Environment , Premiums are extremely low so Risk - Reward isn't favorable to sell the options. 17. Naked option selling for FIN Nifty isn't advi