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Showing posts from July, 2020

Pre - Market Analysis (31st July 2020)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Asian Markets are Majorly Flat. Due to Good results by Amazon overnight Nasdaq is up 2%  This took SGX Nifty higher by 30-40 points overnight. Yesterday our Markets Witnessed big selling. Monthly Expiry are very Volatile. Yesterday it was no less. August Month will be very Volatile and my expectation is it will belong to the Bears. Markets have Rallied a lot in July and now they Seem to be heading near the top. Fall may not happen so early but it is bound to happen. Reliance came up not so good results. Street Expectations were very low but results were good Compared to the Expectations. Time to be cautioned on the upper side. 11300 seems to be very Difficult to be broken away anytime soon. 11000 is a strong support . HDFC ltd also posted bad results Yesterday which aggreviated the selling. Markets moving Violently within this Range. Good risk reward lies in taking contra Trades nearer to the Boundaries. Nifty might trade between 11060-11

Pre - Market Analysis (30th July 2020)

US markets closed a percent higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are all in Green. SGX Nifty is Trading around 11240 now. Yesterday our Markets Witnessed large profit booking in last hour. Reason was Majorly Reliance. Today around 5.30 pm it is coming up with Results . So there was a heavy profit booking here. The good thing is Yesterday in Spite of Markets closing low most of the stocks were in green and few in red. Market breadth was towards Advances. Yesterday US fed came up with a Positive Outlook and came up with measures to revive economy. Also they have said that they have all the Tools to ensure Liquidity and use it when needed. This Created a Positive sentiment and US markets rallied. Many people after Yesterdays fall start to Question that has the Trend changed. According to me the answer is NO. Trend will not change until Global Markets become Bearish. As long as Global Markets are Rallying we will also Participate. Every dip is buying Opportunity. Expecting Today'

Pre - Market Analysis (29th July 2020)

US markets were down about 0.7% Yesterday. But Asian Markets are Trading higher. SGX Nifty is up 20 Points & Trading near 11320 now in Spite of U.S Markets falling. Indian Markets are going through a phase of Outperformance. We are Outperforming Global Markets. Yesterdays price Action in first half was evident that Nifty was not willing to go down. Bank Nifty also joined the Party and gave a good short covering in 2nd half. Without Bank Nifty support Nifty is going higher. If Banks join in we can witness new highs on Nifty. Now the upper level for Nifty is around 11350-11400. Expecting Markets to be Consolidating in first half but second half can be highly Volatile. Wednesdays most of the times Markets are highly Volatile. So better to keep booking profits as you get instead of holding positions till Expiry. Markets will always give you a chance to re enter. I sold Nifty put options Yesterday but covered most of them Intraday. Sold lot of Puts on Reliance as well. Will

Pre - Market Analysis (28th July 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday & Dow Futures are also Trading Positive. SGX Nifty is Trading around 11170. Asian Markets are Slightly Positive. Bank Nifty Fell more than 800 Points Yesterday. Reason was due to RBI Governer Statement on Banks. Also HDFC Bank have their own issues. HDFC Bank EX Chairman Aditya Puri has sold his entire stake of HDFC Bank shares. So this gave a Negative sentiment to the bank. Bank Nifty was down more than 3% Yesterday but Nifty hardly fell about 0.7% Reason was due to few shares like Reliance & IT Stocks. These stocks are holding up the Market as of now. Reliance and IT Stocks are Trading near their lifetime highs. As Expected Yesterday Nifty has been Trading within a tight range between 11070 to 11230. Once either side of the Range breaks we can expect some big move. Bank Nifty will continue to Underperform and will be the laggard. Trend is Bullish but the Participation is very low as of now. As it still remains a buy on dip market

Pre - Market Analysis (27th July 2020)

U.S Markets were down 0.5% on Friday but now Dow Futures are Trading higher by 0.5%. Asian Markets are Mindly Positive. Also Asian Markets are not reacting to U.S Markets SGX Nifty is Trading near 11210. On Friday there was a gap down of more than 100 Points on Nifty and Bank Nifty was down 500 Points at one time. But Markets recovered Sharply from there on & closed near the highs of the day. This shows that the Bulks are in control of things now. FII's have been Contineously buying and as long as they buy markets cannot go down much lower. Another stock which is not looking to stop is Reliance. Everybody is waiting for a correction in Reliance but there has been no Opportunity. Everyday it is Witnessing new highs. 11050 to 11250 is the short term range for Nifty Currently. Once 11000 is broken we will get sharp towards Downside or if 11300 is taken out we might Witness sharp Momentum on the Upside. Until then Markets will just move within this range. ICICI Banks re

Top 7 Traders in the World

To answer the question of who are the best traders in the world we have to consider several things. To be considered the best you would have to filter for these following quantified variables. Long term returns on assets under management.  Size of assets under management.  Consistency of returns.  Size of drawdowns in trading capital.  If they ever blew up accounts.  Personal wealth built through trading.  The richest and best traders in the world aren’t trading their own accounts to pay the weekly grocery bill and monthly rent they are managing billions of dollars to grow their clients capital over the long term. Most also trade huge positions for longer periods of time. Few day trade   but a few firms use high frequency trading programs for intra-day trading and scalping.  The best traders in the world are under pressure not only to make money every month but also must keep their clients satisfied with their performance so they don’t remove their individual funds. These t

Pre - Market Analysis (24th July 2020)

US markets closed more than a percent lower Yesterday. Asian Markets are Mindly Negative. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11150. Technology stocks led the Decline in U.S. Talk of the Town is Amazon is looking to invest 9.99% in Jio Retail. After Jio has bagged so many Investments now Retail counter not holding back. Reliance could single Handedly control Nifty downfall. Last 4 weeks there was a pattern. Nifty went up on Friday , Monday , Tuesday. Corrected a bit on Wednesday and again rocketed back on Thursday. This was going on from last 4 weeks with Volatility bring reduced. Coming to this week I am Expecting a very Volatile Expiry. Remember Weekly expiries are less Volatile Compared to Monthly Expiry. Monthly Expiry there is big Participation and rollovers in F&O lead to big movements. Im Observing this from last 3 Months Expiry and all Expiry have been Highly Volatile. Those who made money in July should now focus on Protecting what you have made. Protecting profits is ve

My Trading Profit & Loss Statement (July)

When I started Trading , I used to see big MTM Screenshots of some Traders and I used to ask myself , Is it Possible? I know many of you might be having same Question in your mind. Thats why I have been posting my Profit & Loss Statements so that it helps the new comers. July was a fairly Bullish Month upto now with some minor crashes in between. So just Followed the Trend , kept it simple and let's see the results. Kept sharing my Bullish View in Blogs as well and those who Followed it must have made good returns. As you can notice I mostly sold Put options. Each & Every Trade was hedged. I never buy nor sell any Naked Options. Capital Used - ₹11.6Lakhs Returns Generated - ₹6.2 lakhs( Realised + Unrealised)  After Taxes & Brokerage. Returns Percentage - 53.4% ( Approximately) You can find the Link of P&L Statement here. Unrealised profit is profit as of Today which will

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd July 2020)

US markets closed a bit higher Yesterday. Dow Futures is Trading Mindly Negative now. Asian markets are a bit Negative. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11100. Last 20 days , Nifty has shot up more than 1000 Points. This was a brisk one way rally in the Markets. Markets cannot keep going at the same pace. A small correction of 100-200 Points on Nifty & 400-600 Points on Bank Nifty is due. When will this correction happen? No idea but it would be good as it would shake out weak longs. 11200 seems Difficult to cross for Nifty & 23000 seems Difficult to cross for Bank Nifty for now. Expecting today Expiry to be Rangebound with Big Swings within the Range. Expecting the Range to be between 11000-11180 unless anything major event pops up in Global Markets. FII's were net Buyers Yesterday so Markets won't fall very Big from here. "Correction" is Different from "Crash" please note. Expecting a very Volatile Expiry within the Range. So one can sell Call

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd July 2020)

US markets ended Mindly higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are Trading Mindly Positive. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11190. Markets have Continued their rally Yesterday as well. Those who Carried their positions took Advantage of it. Those who Traded Intraday could hardly make any money. HUL results were announced Yesterday and they were outstanding. Axis Bank came up with decent results and Axis GDR was up 10% Yesterday. Yesterday Surprisingly Bank Nifty Futures were Trading at Premium. This Indicates Excessive bullishness in the Market. 23000 is an Important level for Bank Nifty & once this is taken out Bank Nifty would be eyeing 23300-23500 in no time. Bank Nifty can by itself take Nifty higher. Another Positive point is U.S Vix is now below it's 200 DMA and India VIX was also below 24 Yesterday. This Indicates less fear and less Volatility in the Markets. 11200 is also an Important level for Nifty and once this is taken out and we Sustain then we can expect big move h

Pre - Market Analysis (21st July 2020)

S&P 500 Crossed it's Intermediate highs of this Year. U.S Markets ended in Green. Asian Markets are all Trading higher. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11100. Today also we are likely to have a 100+ Points gap up. HDFC Bank ADR is up 8% in U.S Market. Yesterday i mentioned I won't be Surprised if we see a 400-500 point move on Nifty this week itself on the higher side. We got 100 Points Yesterday and there are 3 days to go. The Secret of Profitable Trading is to ride big profits. Intraday Traders miss this big ups which market has to offer. They look to find new exits Everyday. Just take the right trade and stick on to it. I have sold 10900 , 10850,10800,10750,10700 PE on Nifty weekly Expiry . Sold Bank Nifty 22000,21500 & 21000 PE Yesterday. Not going to touch these Positions till Expiry. Reducing Intraday Leverage by SEBI is a good move as it will reduce Intraday Volatility which will Automatically benefit Hedge Traders. It might have a Negative effect on some b

Pre - Market Analysis (20th July 2020)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Dow Futures is Mildly Negative now along with Asian Markets. SGX Nifty is Trading near 10900. On Friday our Markets closed 200 Points higher. Last hour on Friday , Nifty gained 80 Points and Closed above 10900. 10900 was the 200 DMA and that has been crossed now. I didn't expect Markets to go up so quick so fast. Many Option Sellers have been selling 11000,11100 calls and now they are likely to cover their positions and take Markets higher. Nifty is in a Strong Uptrend. Last week it Corrected a Maximum of 200 Points and never closed Below 10600. This shows that the strong Momentum is on the higher side. Previously , Reliance was holding up the Nifty but now IT Stocks have also joined the Party. On Friday , Oil & Gas Sector also rallied on the back of Divestment news by the Government. FII's were selling for the last week but on Friday they started buying. I have observed in the past , once they start to buy they Contineously

Pre - Market Analysis (17th July 2020)

US markets closed Mindly Negative Yesterday. Asian Markets are Trading higher. SGX Nifty is up 70 Points. Last week for a Complete Roller Coaster Ride for our Markets. Market was changing every day and was giving sharp moves on either sides. It was shaking all the Option Writers & Trend Traders. People are asking me is the Market Bullish or Bearish? My answer is the Market is Rangebound. The Range is between 10550 to 10850. Market is within this range and is giving sharp moves on either sides. IT Stocks have come up with Spectacular results this week and have given Tremendous rally. U.S is planning another STIMULUS so this news might not make the Market fall much from here. FIIs were net sellers Yesterday but DIIs turned Buyers. Expecting the Consolidation phase to continue for a while now. Reliance after a big rise for few Months and a sharp fall on Wednesday Afternoon might look to Consolidate now. Not Expecting a great deal of Momentum or selling today. Generally Fri

Pre - Market Report (15th July 2020)

US markets closed 2% higher Yesterday and Dow Futures are 1% higher now. Asian Markets are Mixed. Reason is Moderna Inclusive has announced Special Antibodies Dealing with Corona Virus. We are in such Markets that one day some news comes and other day some other. SGX Nifty is Trading near 10680. Volatility is Back & Markets are highly Volatile now. Yesterday Bank Nifty collapsed 3% and Nifty fell 2%. Without Hedge it's almost Impossible to trade in such Markets. We are in a Bull Market so corrections might not last for a longer time. Now the view remains to be Mildly Bearish. Nifty is likely to come back to it's range between 10650 to 10900. Markets will be Volatile and give you moves on both sides. HDFC Bank reported that their Top level Executives have Resigned. That Stock is facing some pressure now. Wednesdays market remain Volatile and will give moves on both directions. Bank Nifty might recover some of its Losses today. Nifty might Trade between 10600-1078

Pre - Market Analysis (14th July 2020)

US markets hit all time highs Yesterday but then Drama Happened in last hour. Dow Jones was up 450 Points all day closed at a Flat Terrain . Big sell off was Witnessed in second half. Asian Markets are Mindly Negative. SGX Nifty is Trading near 10750. I am Expecting a short term Correction now. A correction of 100-300 Points on Nifty & 1000 Points on Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty Support is near 22000-21900 and that is likely to be taken out today. The Reason for a bit Bearishness is that the Market is looking very streched on the upside. Yesterday only because of Reliance the Markets were settled. Reliance has more than doubled and cannot keep giving Support always. A handful of Stocks supporting Nifty is not a good sign. I have sold call option Yesterday 11000 , 11050 ,11100 CE. Also sold 10500 & 10450 PE. Sold 23000 CE for Bank Nifty. Many people ask me to update prices of my Trades as well. Updating prices not Possible as I keep Averaging and keep exiting them accordin

Pre - Market Analysis (13th July 2020)

U.S Markets closed 400 points higher on Friday and dow Futures now is Trading in Green. Asian Markets are all Trading Positive. SGX Nifty is now Trading near 10830. The talk of the Town this Weekend again is Reliance Industries. Reliance has bagged another Investment from Qualcomm. Last week , Nifty Traded only in a range of 200 Points. SGX Nifty fell below 25 & it was purely a Consolidation week. The Range in which Nifty Traded was 10650 to 10850. As Markets were Consolidating Premiums on Options are very low. Even the 11000 CE of Weekly Expiry is down 50% with 4 days left to Expiry. Better to wait for a Breakout / Breakdown and then position the Trades as Premiums are already too low to sell into. Once 10850-10900 level is Crossed we can witness 11000-11100 on Nifty immediately. Index Heavyweight Stocks like Reliance , HDFC Bank are looking very Bullish. Earnings Quarter has started and Companies have started to Announce their Results. TCS has come up with the results

Profit & Loss Statement ( July 2nd Week) When Someone says Im a Qualified Chartered Accountant how does he prove it? By Showing his Mark Sheet  When Someone says he is an Engineer how does he prove it? By Showing his Certificate. What is the Proof of a Trader? The Profit & Loss Statement. Before joining any person for Trading / Advisory services definetely check their Profit & Loss Statement and then proceed. Without checking one's P&L never ever Subscribe to their services. Profit and loss Statement for the days prior have been Uploaded in seperate Blogs & you can check the same. Here is the review for the Week. Trend was Bullish. There were some Dips in between and kept adding on to them. Was rewarded when the week ended. Returns Generated - ₹163000/- Capital Used - ₹7,00,000/- Returns Percentage - 23.2% ( Approximately) Time Frame - 1 Week. When I was young as a Trader nobody was there to mentor me and everybody had to learn Themselves. Many people ask me is it Possibl

Pre - Market Analysis (10th July 2020)

U.S Markets closed 1.5% lower Yesterday but now Dow Futures are Trading Positive. Asian Markets are also Mixed. SGX Nifty is Trading flat near 10780. Yesterday was a very Rangebound Market as Expected but Intraday moves were very Volatile. I was in 60k MTM profit by 1 pm. 10k MTM loss by 2 pm. 1 lakh MTM profit by 3.30 Such was the Intraday Volatility Yesterday. I also said Yesterday in my Blog that Wednesday was just Normal profit booking day. Reason was Nifty did not break any major support levels and that view worked out Yesterday. Nifty is Slowly striking the door of 11000 now. Markets might just Consolidate now for some days but should slowly inch higher. This Expiry Nifty might trade between 10500 & 11100. Planning to take an Iron Condor based on this Range. Those who have taken Training with me know what is Iron Condor and can take this trade. This will fetch you 4% return in 4 working days if Nifty Trades between 10500 to 11100. Sell 10400 PE & buy 10300 PE

Pre - Market Analysis (9th July 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is Trading near 10700. In July series, Markets are Trading within range. Yesterday last hour Markets Witnessed huge profit booking. This is not Trend Reversal and just normal profit booking. Nothing to be worried and say crash is Approaching etc. FII's & DII's were net sellers Yesterday. I sold 10600 Put Yesterday Weekly Expiry when Nifty fell below 10700. Yesterday until 2.30 Bank Nifty was holding Nifty and was on a roll. Bank Nifty Couldn't Sustain above 23000 and Eventually collapsed from the high. Eventually leading to big sell off in Nifty. Bank Nifty range would be between 22200 & 22900 for this Expiry. Nifty might trade between 10650 & 10820 today. Flat Markets expected today. Do not expect any Big Moves on Nifty. Bank Nifty is a high Volatile index , exited all the Positions in Bank Nifty Yesterday with good profits. Trade for today is to by on dips closer to 10650-10620

Pre - Market Analysis (8th July 2020)

Dow Jones was down 400 points Yesterday but now Dow Futures are Trading in Green. Asian Markets are Mixed with a Slight Positive Bias. SGX Nifty is Trading near 10780. Yesterday the Brazil President Tested Positive for Corona Virus. Yesterdays Action major take away was Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty broke out of its stiff Resistance of 22500. Private banks Witnessed good buying. Expecting Bank Nifty to go higher today and which in turn will take care of Nifty as well. As Expected Yesterday , Markets Traded within a 100 Point Range of Nifty. Also the dip on Nifty was bought into very Sharply. 10650 is a major support on Nifty for this Expiry. Not Expecting Markets to go below that. 10900 is the 200 DMA for Nifty and it might act as a Resistance for a bit. Once 10900 is taken 11000 will be Witnessed immediately. The Trade remains to buy on dip closer to 10700. And go with the Trend which is on the upside. Trading against the Trend will take you to cleaners. Massive short positions a

Pre - Market Analysis (7th July 2020)

U.S Markets closed 400 Points higher Yesterday but Dow Futures is Trading 0.5% lower now. Asian Markets are all Slightly Negative. SGX Nifty is down 40 Points are Trading near 10750. Yesterday the Markets Witnessed a big rally on the back of Support from Global Markets. FII's & DII's were net Buyers Yesterday. Markets have Rallied very Quick in very short time. Markets need to slow down and Consolidate a bit now. Expecting today to be the day of Consolidation for Nifty. LargeCap Heavyweights Performed extremely well Yesterday. Reliance was Suggested as a Long Term Recommendation rallied more than 3%. HDFC Bank on the back of Good Numbers was up 3% Yesterday. Trend Still remains Bullish and it is Still a Buy on dip Market. Markets pause after big rallies but that doesn't mean Trend has changed. Bank Nifty failed to cross 22400-22500 Yesterday. Due to which Nifty was Unable to Sustain above 10800 Yesterday. This might take some time to happen. Today Markets mi

Pre - Market Analysis (6th July 2020)

U.S Markets were closed on Friday but U.S Futures are up 1% now. Nasdaq is Trading at all time high. Asian Markets are all in Green. SGX Nifty is up 100 Points and Trading near 10680. I was Receiving many Texts as to why Markets are Trading higher despite Corona Virus infections Increasing and all bad news etc. According to me , Markets are rising because things are not bad as it seemed to be at the Beginning of Corona Virus Pandemic. Businesses have started , Economy is Recovering. Markets always factor in all the news before handed. It discounts the future news before handed. The day the Vaccine comes out , the Markets will top out. This is the Nature of Markets. Runs on hopes , tops out on Reality. FII's were selling for the past whole month now they have turned Net Buyers. Bought more than 800 Crores on Friday. This is a very important number. Another Important Observation is Large Cap Stocks on Individual Charts are looking very Bullish. Large Cap Stocks are ready

Mean Reversion Strategy

There are many different types of trading strategies. Some traders trade with the trend buying high looking for higher highs or sell new low prices short looking for even lower lows in price, momentum strategies just look for a strong move to go a little farther, others trade a market inside a price range of support and resistance. What this article is going to talk about is the specific strategy of mean reversion, this is looking at prices as a kind of rubber band that stretches only so far and eventually snaps back to a historical long term average.  Mean reversion trading strategies consist of signals that bet on extended prices eventually snapping back from overbought or oversold conditions and reverting back to the mean of historical pricing. It is a trade that takes a position on a quantifiable technical signal that price has moved too far and too fast in one direction and the probabilities that it will return to an average are high.  One simple way to look for a reve

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd July 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. US added more than 4.5 Million Jobs for the Month of June after partial opening up of the Economy. This is a great Number reported by U.S Estimation was around 3 Million Jobs. Asian Markets are Trading with a Positive Bias. SGX Nifty is up 40 Points & Trading near 10590 now. Markets have Rallied and have come out of their Conjession zone Yesterday. The Biggest Positive was Markets were Rallying while India VIX was falling. India VIX fell from 31 to 27 this week which shows the fear is Decreasing & there is limited Downside. Also the Intraday Volatility Reduces due to falling VIX. Nifty Traded just within 100 Points band Yesterday. 7500 is a definite bottom and according to me it will never ever be witnessed again in the History of Indian Stock Market. FII's still remain on the short side while DII's were net Buyers Yesterday. Bought 10500 PE Monthly Expiry and Sold 10300 PE & 10100 PE Weekly Expiry Yesterday. Not Expec

My Trading Profit & Loss Account ( July 1st Week)

Profit & Loss Account Statement upto 25th July have been uploaded in my Previous Blogs. You can check the same in my Previous Blogs. Will be Sharing the P&L of July first week here. Just for Education purpose let me share some things. Im Sharing P&L not just to show off but to guide you and show you that how you can manage your Capital , Trade well and get returns. At the Beginning of this Expiry I had Bearish View and that worked well till Tuesday. Wednesday out Markets Rallied so I took a Bullish view and mostly sold put options at Various strike prices with Hedge. Also done some Bull Call Spreads which resulted in good profits. Traded fully in Nifty Options only. Not touched anything else. Capital Invested - ₹7 Lakhs. Returns Generated - ₹117159/- (16.7% ROI) Time Frame - 4 Trading Sessions. ( Not Traded on Friday) You can download my P&L Statement here and also share the same with your Friends.

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd July 2020)

US markets Slightly Negative Yesterday. Dow Futures is Trading in Positive now. Asian Markets are Mixed with positive Bias. SGX Nifty is Trading near 10480. Yesterday , Surprisingly our Markets Rallied without any News. The Rally was Majorly a Short Covering Rally. Nifty & Bank Nifty Futures were Trading at Discount , now that Short covering has been done and there is no discount on those Indices. As Per U.S ADP data 2.4 Million Jobs were added for the Month of June. Today evening, official Employment data will be Announced . Expectation as per is 3-3.5 Million Jobs will be added. If it comes as per the Expectations then it would be positive. Hopes related to Short covering have also started to increase. Pfizer has announced some drug related to Corona Virus. Yesterday Swami Ramdev also conducted a Press Conference for his claims towards Coronil. I do not know maybe this what led to Yesterdays rally in the Markets. The Hero of Yesterdays rally was Bank Nif

Pre - Market Analysis (1st July 2020)

US markets closed a Percent higher Yesterday. But Asian markets are Almost Trading Flat. SGX Nifty is down 20,30 Points and Trading near 10220. PM Modi's Announcement Yesterday is not to likely have much bigger impact on the Markets. Infact PM had given a warning regarding Corona Virus and there was no update of lockdown. This might be taken as Negative by the Markets. Markets are stuck in a range now. There is Conjession in the upper region. But there is not much downside as there is support when it goes lower. Markets are howering within this range. Yesterday gave a Strategy in our Telegram Channel and that was Performing very well. FII's were net Sellers Yesterday but DII's were net Buyers. One thing which can be said looking at the data is there is not a bigger Upside for our Markets now as FII's have become Net sellers. But if any Positive News comes over we might Witness short covering as well. So ,one Shouldn't rule out such Possibility. Markets h