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Showing posts from May, 2021

Pre - Market Analysis (31st May 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Today U.S Markets are closed. Asian Markets are trading lower. SGX Nifty is down 70 Points. On Friday our Markets have crossed all time highs and unlike before we have sustained at those levels. This shows strength in our Markets. Another major development was India VIX fell by 10% on Friday as soon as Market opened. This shows that the fear is going down. India VIX now is Trading below 18. So the option premiums are low and markets might not make big moves either side. RBI has levied ₹10 crore penalty on HDFC Bank. Although this amount is not big for a Bank having a size of 8 lakh Crores. In short term this might be some negative sentiment. This is still a buy on dip Market and we might Consolidate for some time now. While Nifty has crossed all time highs Bank Nifty is still 2500 Points away from its highs. Bank Nifty might underperform for 1-2 days but when it turns around it goes big. So keep accumulating dips as big move might be roun

Pre - Market Analysis (28th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed significantly higher Yesterday. This was due to Jobless claims report which was favourable. Asian Markets are mostly trading higher. SGX Nifty is up by 40,50 points close to 15460. Yesterday was the end of May series and it was a fantastic month for the Bulls. Markets for the last 3 Months have been in a Consolidation mode after rallying April to December. Today is the start of June series and if we open as SGX Nifty indicates then on Intraday basis itself we might test all time highs on Nifty. Bank Nifty has a long way to go for its all time highs and that's the reason I'm more Bullish on Bank Nifty than on Nifty. Yesterday Bank Nifty broke out of 35k where there were lot of option sellers who sold 35000 CE. This led to big short covering towards the end of the day. SBI contributed to the short covering rally and was up 4% yesterday. SBI is close to its all time high of 430 now & if once this breaks then there would be no stopping for SBI. Ju

Pre - Market Analysis (27th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed slightly higher yesterday. Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is up by 10,20 points. U.S Markets are into a long term consolidation. Our Markets are on the verge of making fresh highs. Mid cap index has already touched fresh all time highs. Due to some underperformance in heavy weight stocks the major indices might take some time. Today is the May expiry & it has been a very good month for the Bulls as on today. Nifty is away just a percent from all time highs whereas Bank Nifty is away 7-8%. As for value traders Bank Nifty has a good value on the upside from here. It's just a matter of time before the Bank Nifty catches up with Nifty. Reliance and HDFC Bank have been underperforming the Nifty. Once these 2 stocks turn around then the situation will change. It's a buy on dip Market. 15000 is a strong support and any dip can be used to sell 15000 PE June Expiry. FII's were net buyers whereas DII's were on the sell side. Monthly Expirys

Pre - Market Analysis (26th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed slightly lower Yesterday. Asian Markets are all mostly higher. SGX Nifty is almost flat near 15250. Bank Nifty had underperformed yesterday. HDFC bank in particular dragged Bank Nifty. Reliance is also trading lower. The frontline heavyweight stocks are in a Consolidation phase. I expect this to continue today as well. Yesterday high Open Interest has been added at 15300 CE. Bank Nifty also added huge open interest at 35000 CE. These levels will act as a huge resistance for the next 2 days. But however this is Monthly expiry week & due to Expiry related issues things might change. FII's were net buyers whereas DII's sold Yesterday. India VIX at one point of time was higher 10% but closed below 19. Option Premiums are too low that indicates not a big move ahead. Even June Expiry options are trading at such steep discounts. Markets are slowly inching higher and it's a matter of time before we hit fresh all time highs. However for today and t

Pre - Market Analysis (25th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed more than a percent higher Yesterday. Asian Market's are mostly higher. SGX Nifty is trading above 15300. Yesterday we had a Consolidation day after a big rally on Friday. Bank Nifty is outperforming Nifty. SBI in Particular has been outperforming after declaring excellent results. SBI results have boost the sentiment in Banking Stocks. I mentioned yesterday, we might hit fresh all time highs this week itself. There are huge short Positions still in the Market and these people will have to square off their shorts by the end of expiry. This will propell the Markets even higher. Bank Nifty has the highest shorting in the system. That's one of the reason of outperformance in Bank Nifty. FII's were net buyers Yesterday while DII's were sellers. Perhaps due to DII's selling market corrected slightly in last 30 mins Yesterday. U.S markets were in Consolidation due to inflation fears and Bitcoin crash. Yesterday Bitcoin was up 10% and Inflati

Pre - Market Analysis (24th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. Dow Future's are now trading higher. SGX Nifty is lower by 40-50 Points. Our Market's witnessed a tremendous rally on Friday. Bank Nifty in particular witnessed huge short covering. There were many traders who went short on last Expiry ie , Thursday as Nifty and Bank Nifty closed more than a percent lower. All these shorters were taken to cleaners on Friday. In the past SBI results have changed the Market sentiment. Friday wasn't any different. SBI posted stellar results and carried Bank Nifty with itself. Nifty is just 2% away from its all time highs. Bank Nifty is away 7-9% from its all time highs. There's a catch up rally going on in Bank Nifty now. There is a good possibility that for this Expiry we might witness fresh highs on Nifty. There was a heavy Put writing taking place on Friday. Put option Premiums were already down by 60-70%. 15100 PE & 15000 PE in Particular have added high open interest. For this Expiry

Pre - Market Analysis (21st May 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Dow Futures opened higher but witnessed slight profit booking in last 30 mins. SGX Nifty is trading around 15k. Yesterday it was a sluggish expiry. Nifty was trading at 15k for most of the day but Markets fell suddenly. Such sudden falls happen quite a lot of time on expiry days. May upto now has been a failry ranging month with just a few big moves. Expecting 200-300 one sided move on Nifty in this week. Bank Nifty is fairly dependent on SBI results today. SBI results would decide the future trend of Bank Nifty. I had taken a strategy on SBI which got exited yesterday by mistake. I take a lot of trades in Bank Nifty , Nifty etc so I just exit all the positions by clicking select all option. By mistake SBI trades were exited too. It got exited in Breakeven so I would advice all the readers if they are still into the SBI trade please exit. Fresh levels of entering the Stock may be given today after results or by Monday. Expecting the Vola

Pre - Market Analysis (20th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Yesterday during Market hours Dow Futures were down 300 Points. At one Point of time Down was down 600 Points Yesterday. During the End of the day it has recovered 70% of its losses. Reason for this Bearishness was due to the Crypto Currency Market. All the Crypto Currencies have fallen by 50% from their all time highs now. Many Funds of U.S have their positions in these currencies. Now due to such severe fall these people have to book their Equity positions to compensate damage in crypto. This disturbs the rhythm of the Market. You may Remember the "GameStop Saga" there was a big short covering in GameStop stock and many hedge funds having short positions lost heavily. To compensate the leverage , losses etc they had to book the other positions to clear the Margin here. Sort of the same happened yesterday. Right now Dow Future's are flat. SGX Nifty is flat near 15050. Asian Market's are mixed. This is just a profit book

Pre - Market Analysis (19th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Dow Futures are currently Negative. SGX Nifty is Trading near 15050. Last 2 days we had a phenomenal rally in our Markets. We might now consolidate for some time. This small dip is a pause in the Upcoming rally. Markets after rallying so quick in so less time take some rest. FII's & DII's both were net buyers yesterday. That's why yesterday HDFC Bank has outperformed. India VIX has closed below 20 Yesterday. Yesterday after a big gap up we have consolidated throughout the day. Today expecting the same. Expecting a Rangebound day with Consolidation today. 15100 PE & 15000 PE have added huge open interest yesterday. 15000 will act as a strong support for this expiry now. Today the U.S Fed will come up with its Minutes regarding interest rates etc. Stock Market is waiting for new developments regarding interest rates , inflation etc to get a future idea. Expecting Bank Nifty outperformance to continue ahead. For the 2nd C

Pre - Market Analysis (18th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed a bit lower Yesterday. Right now U.S Futures and Nasdaq Future's are trading higher. SGX Nifty is Indicating a big gap up above 15100 today. Yesterday we witnessed a fantastic rally in both the Indices. Nifty and Bank Nifty both have Outperformed highly. Bank Nifty in particular was the star of the show Yesterday. Bank Nifty closed 1300 Points higher Yesterday. It was a big short covering in all the Banking stocks. The short covering was led by PSU Banks. FII's were also short in our Markets previously and they are still net short on our Markets. This short covering took the indices even higher Yesterday. Today if we sustain above 15100 for an hour this short covering will increase further. 15000 has been acting as a big resistance from quite some time now. Sustaining above this level with follow through indicates further strength in our Markets Shorting is not advisable as of now. India VIX for the first time closed below 20 Yesterday. Even now F

Pre - Market Analysis (17th May 2021)

U.S Markets closed a percent higher on Friday. SGX Nifty crossed 14850 on Friday. Right now U.S Futures and Asian Market's are marginally weaker. SGX Nifty is trading around 14770 now. Markets have been in a rangebound zone and have been Consolidating from quite some time now. Last week the U.S inflation data triggered a fear in our Markets. Due to the same Volatility has increased. Friday was a fairly Volatile day. Nifty traded within 100 Point range but there were big swings throughout the day. Bank Nifty fell a percent on Friday. Bank Nifty looks weaker than the Nifty. We have SBI results coming this week and if this is positive then it may trigger Bank Nifty higher. As of now 14800 and above seems to be a strong resistance as calls have been written aggressively from 14800 and above. More call writing is going on than puts. Remember, option writers can also be wrong and small rally might propell the markets higher. 14350 to 15000 is the range I expect the Market to

Pre - Market Analysis (14th May 2021)

U.S Markets on Wednesday night closed 2% lower due to Inflation Fears. SGX Nifty broke 14500 at one point of time. Yesterday , U.S Fed has calmed the Inflation Fears and there was a rally in U.S Markets. Although SGX Nifty is indicating 150 Points positive now. It is at the same level where Nifty has expired on Wednesday ie , 14700.(Thursday being a holiday for our Markets) We track all the Global news being an option writer via hedging. For those who didn't track any missed all the action. Since last 3 Months our Markets have been Consolidating and are in a fairly Rangebound zone. 14200 to 15400 is the wider range. 14200 to 15000 is the shortened range. I expect this range to continue for some time now. Some Exceptional event or news might trigger this range to break but I don't see it In near term as of now. Smart players have been trading this range very well and have made fantastic returns. Ranging Markets test your skill and patience as you require skill. As th

Pre - Market Analysis (12th May 2021)

U.S Markets were Negative yesterday. Dow Jones was down 600 points at one instance but closed more than 400 points down. Even now Dow Futures are Negative and are down 100 Points. Bad job numbers reported by U.S is showing its negative impact on U.S. Asian markets are mixed. Some are Positive while others negative. SGX Nifty is down 50 points. We have monthly expiry today for Nifty & bank Nifty. 15000 CE continues to have highest open interest. 14800 straddle has added huge amounts of open interest Yesterday. Today evening US will declare its Inflation data. This will be tracked carefully to get an idea about interest rates. India VIX for the first time in May closed below 20. Option premiums are too low today. I haven't seen such low premiums since Jan 2020. Option writers have to be careful now as Option Buyers may start Gambling with such low premiums and increase Volatility. First 2 weeks of May were very silent and there wasnt any heavy turbulence. I feel next

Pre - Market Analysis (11th May 2021)

US markets closed Negative Yesterday. Asian Markets are all trading in Red. SGX Nifty is down 200 Points. Markets reacting to the Bad Jobs Data posted by U.S a day later. Technology stocks came under severe profit booking pressure. Nasdaq once again highly under performed Dow. WHO has classified triple-mutant Covid variant from India as global health risk. This is the deadliest variant found in India due to which cases were on a steep rise. Yesterday I mentioned it's time to exit long positions and go short near 15000. We were likely to witness the profit booking near the upper end of the range. Now we are back to our old range of 14200 and 15000. Lot of Put options were sold Yesterday and 14900 PE had the highest open interest. As there were heavy put writers they may run for cover as Markets fell and might short futures. So this might turn much bigger fall for our markets. Luckily , I do not have any Weekly expiry positions as yesterday the premiums were too low and e

Pre - Market Analysis (10th May 2021)

On Friday, US jobs data came much lower than expected. Inspite of this Negative news U.S Markets were higher on Friday. That's because Govt would bring in more Stimulus and not increase the interest rates in near future. SGX Nifty is Currently trading near 14990. Asian Market's have opened in flat zone as of now. In the past whenever we crossed 15k we witnessed selling pressure  Selling was very severe. We have been trading in the range of 14200 to 15000. Now we might expand upto 15200 on Nifty. One should apply caution when Nifty is above 15k. Considering the Block deals etc FII's have turned net buyers in the Market. We are in a ranging Market so the best way to approach the same is to trade based on the range. Big trending moves are less likely to happen. Nifty is 3% away from record highs whereas Bank Nifty is 10% away from record highs. Bank Nifty might witness some catch up rally here. Metals are shining from last 2 Months. All the Metal Stocks have double

Pre - Market Analysis (7th May 2021)

US markets closed at fresh all time high Yesterday. Dow Futures are now mildly higher. SGX Nifty is trading around 14850. Markets have been fairly Rangebound for last Expiry. India VIX has also fallen. Options Premiums indicating a fairly ranging Market ahead with a positive bias. Yesterday U.S announced waiver of Intellectual property rights on Vaccines. This has come as a positive news and after many days of selling by FII's , Yesterday was their first significant buying day. Weekly jobless claims came better than expected and lowest post pandemic figure. This is a very important data reported by the U.S. Today HDFC twins are set to declare results. Market expecting good numbers from both these stocks. These both stocks will decide today's action in indices. Do not carry Positions over the Weekend without hedge. This week's expiry is a truncated expiry as we have only 4 working days as Thursday being a holiday. So options premium are low already. Fed made a st

Pre - Market Analysis (6th May 2021)

US markets closed Flat once again. Asian markets are mostly higher. SGX Nifty is up 60 points. This week on Friday Closed at 14630. On Monday it closed at same level after 200 point gap down start. Tuesday we closed around 14500. And Yesterday again we closed around 14630. These consolidation and flat moves is a delight for option writers. I've mentioned that Nifty might Trade between 14500 & 14800 for this week. View continues even now. Todays expiry range is 14500 to 14800. So If you get to the extremes of the range you can implement contra trades with Stoploss. FII's & DII's have become net sellers now. Both are selling heavily. Still Market keeps inching higher which is surprising. Today's Covid Cases are at 4.12L which is yet another record high. India needs to implement complete lockdown to control Covid spread. This is not said only by me it's said by Experts like Uday Kotak etc. Positive economic data and tax collections is holding our Ma

Pre - Market Analysis (5th May 2021)

US markets closed flat Yesterday. At one point of time U.S Markets were down about a percent but it had recovered all of its losses Intraday. Nasdaq was down whereas Dow was positive. SGX Nifty hit a low of 14380 Yesterday but now it's trading near 14600. 220 point recovery overnight. Asian Markers are slightly positive now. RBI Governer Mr.Shaktikanta Das is going to address Media today. This is on a very short notice and also Unscheduled. Markets are expecting some positive news out of the speech hence SGX Nifty is firmly higher. Today's Market movement will be based on what RBI Governer addresses. If it is a Non event Market will be trading based Global Markets etc. Or else if it is something important then Markets will follow RBI Governers news. Yesterday I mentioned that Nifty might Trade between 14500 to 14800 for some days. Yesterday we broke Lower level marginally but today's opening again will be within these levels. If nothing major comes out of RBI Go

Pre - Market Report (4th May 2021)

US markets closed Flat Yesterday. Asian markets are also Flat. SGX Nifty is down 20 points. Markets all over the World are in a Consolidation phase. Yesterday Nifty opened 200 points lower but closed exactly at same level as of Friday. This is an option writers delight. Yesterday's price action suggests that People are ready to buy at lower levels. Vice Versa people are ready to book profits and sell at higher levels too near 15k etc. I expect this Consolidation to continue going ahead for few more days. I have sold 14200 PE & 14950 CE Yesterday. Both were trading at very good premiums Yesterday. Premiums are still higher consolidating 3 days left for expiry. Yesterday India VIX crossed 24. When VIX is high Premiums are high & so is the Volatility. That's why even far away options having good premiums now. We have been trading between 14200 & 15000 and Market has been making big swings within this range. This Consolidation could go on for a week or so. F

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd May 2021)

US Futures are slightly Positive. Asian markets are Negative. SGX Nifty is down more than 200 points. By 7.45 it was down 80 Points but now SGX is down more than 200 points. BJP's defeat in Bengal , Corona Virus cases rising heavily and FII's selling are the reasons for such a big gap down in SGX. Last week , Nifty rallied from 14150 to 15050 in 4 days. Next 2 days we are now near 14500. This is some kind of insane Volatility. The spikes are okay but the Volatility is too high. Friday, FIIs have sold for more than ₹3500 crores. Many States have been resorting to fresh lockdowns. So the picture doesn't seem good. Only Positive news is GST Collections. In spite of issues faced in Economy , Lockdown and Corona Virus GST collections touched another record high of 1.4L crores. Reliance has announced its results over the weekend and it's in line with the Expectations. Today Kotak Bank is likely to come up with its results. Auto Sales numbers were not upto the mark