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Showing posts from March, 2020

Pre - Market Report (31st March 2020)

U.S Markets closed 3% higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are also Mostly in Green. Trump has cautioned U.S Citizens that if the lockdown rules are not being followed Strictly then in coming 2 weeks the deaths in U.S could surge to more than a lakh. Lockdown has been extended to 30th April in some parts of U.S . Indian Institute of Medical Research Yesterday in their Press Conference mentioned that they have not obtained any Proofs of Community Transmission yet ( Stage 3) . It would be a Tremendous job if we Eradicate the spread of Corona Virus at Stage 2 itself. Indian Government also Clarified Yesterday that they are not planning to Extend the lockdown beyond 21 day period. There is not a lot of Incremental Negative news related to Corona Virus all over the World except in U.S Cases in U.S have surged to 1.4 lakh. Observing Yesterdays Market I can say that we are in the last round of selling now. In First round of selling all the low Quality stocks fall by 60-70% but Bluechip

Pre - Market Report (30th March 2020)

US markets closed 4% weak on Friday & Asian markets are mostly weak. Markets are falling despite Stimulus measures announced by their Countries. SGX Nifty is 2% weak & trading near 8450 as of now.  Meanwhile , the Corona Virus fears aren't Settling down. More than 1.2 lakh positive cases reported in U.S . Testing Mechanism is slow in India compared to U.S .Positive cases are likely to increase in the coming weeks. Expect the Broader range to continue between 7500 to 9500. Expect Markets to trade in this range unless there is any Incremental news. If 7500 on Nifty is breached, then markets would go much lower. Last Bounce back on Nifty was from 8500 to 10100 around 18-20% & it got sold off Immediately in next 4 trading sessions. This time around we have a Bounce back from 7500 levels & we made a high of 9100 on Nifty.  I think the Pullback rally is likely to end & has weak legs to gain further Momentum. We should witness another round of

The Winning Trader & the Blaming Trader

In trading as in all other endeavors in life there are people who take full  responsibility for their own results and the consequences of their own actions and there are others who blame everybody and everything else for the bad things in their life. There are the winners and then there are the whiners. Trading is no different, and many do the homework and put in the time to become winners and make money and others just become victims of the notorious “they”. They are crooks. They always give me a loss. They have destroyed my Account. They ran the stock against me when I was in the bathroom. They gave me a bad tip. They just used me for a pump and dump. They are playing games with prices. They were running a bear raid. They always move the Market against my Trade. The mark of a winning trader who is a real pro is that they take full responsibility for the results of every one of their trades early in their trading career. I lost a lot of money because I traded a position wa

Are you a Trader or a Gambler?

How many times has this happened to you? You tell your co-workers, family, or friends about your trading, and after a gasp they say, “Oh my, isn’t that gambling?” You try to assure them that no, you are not a gambler, you are a trader. You have a winning system, and you make money over the course of time. But they still look at you judgmentally and never quite understand. They don’t seem to understand that when they lost half their retirement money with their supposedly safe investing methods, you made double-digit returns over the same period of time. Here is a quick checklist to see if you are a Gambler or a Trader: Gamblers are always at a disadvantage to the house. Good traders have a system that gives them an advantage over other traders. Gamblers always leave the casino with empty pockets, no matter how much money they are up at any point. Good traders make money consistently. Gamblers risk money randomly. Good traders risk preset amounts of money on each

Pre - Market Report (27th March 2020)

Trump Announced 2Trillion$ STIMULUS / relief package on the wake of Corona Virus & it also got passed by the Senate Yesterday. This has been the biggest STIMULUS Package announced till date all over the World. Dow closed 4% higher Yesterday. Closed in Positive Territory for consecutive 3 Trading Sessions. SGX Nifty right now is up 1%. All the World Markets seem to be in a Pullback phase including our Markets. Honourable Finance Minister , Nirmala Sitharaman also announced at 1.5 Trillion $ package Yesterday. My Views are that this is a great Package for the poor but there is nothing for Traders & Middle Class People. RBI Governer Mr. Shashikant Das will hold a Press Conference today at 10 PM. Today is the Start of Fresh Series and on the Basis of rate cut Expectation Markets might be strong today. Upper Range for this Pullback rally seems to be near about 9200-9400 range. Those who have entered near 7500-8000 range on Nifty can look to close their long positions here. R

Pre - Market Report (26th March 2020)

Trump Announced 2Trillion$ STIMULUS / relief package on the wake of Corona Virus. This has been the biggest STIMULUS Package announced till date for U.S Markets. Dow closed 2% higher Yesterday. All the World Markets seem to be in a Pullback phase including our Markets. Remember the Primary Trend is towards the Short side. What we are Witnessing now it just Pullback / Counter Rallys. This Pullback may last for some time now. Unless there is more Incremental bad news related to Corona Virus front I expect the Markets to be Rangebound & Consolidate. Today is Weekly Options Expiry and also Monthly Expiry for March Series. Expecting the Markets to Stabilise a bit from now & also expecting the VIX to reduce Significantly. SGX Nifty Indicating a Minor 50-70 point cut to begin with. The Big STIMULUS Package which got announced Yesterday Triggered a sharp rally Yesterday in our Markets as well. So there are high Expectations from our Government as well to Announced a good Re

Pre - Market Report (25th March 2020)

US markets closed 11% higher Yesterday only on the hope of a big STIMULUS package from the U.S Government.( 2 Trillion $) So that has nothing to do with our Markets because any Benefit / STIMULUS relates to that Country only. Meanwhile India is under Lock Down for 21 Days & this will take a huge hit of the Economy of our Country. I have my Sympathy towards the Government because they had a really tough decision to make & they have taken a timely decision to keep Health at utmost Priority. Businesses are closed for 21 days but the Stock Prices continue to trade in the Market. Strange , isnt it? Our FM hasn't announced any STIMULUS / Relief Package yet Reason behind this might be that each & every Penny available now is being used in Health Infrastructure. So I don't think that even when a relief package is announced it would be equal to the Stock Markets liking. Another issue here is the Uncertainty Element. Nobody Knows whether this wou

Pre - Market Report (24th March 2020)

  US markets closed 3% lower Yesterday. U.S Fed Announced Unlimited buying power of Assets & also unlimited printing of money to bring enough Liquidity into the System. Meanwhile , Corona Virus cases doesn't seem to stop. Infact they have Constantly been rising day by day. Markets are likely to settle only when some Cure / Vaccination is Developed for Corona Virus. Meanwhile our Government & FM have not announced any sort of STIMULUS , relief package for the Economy.  This is a very bad news for our Stock Markets because everybody was expecting some Measures from the Govt & now due to ignorance over the Economy our Markets may go much more lower. India has around 500 active cases of Corona Virus currently & this can easily shoot up to 25000-30000 in a few weeks. Social Distancing is Important but issues related to testing etc should be tackled very Quickly. Im not being Pessimistic but im being Realistic & Mentioning that if we do not find cure

Pre - Market Report (23rd March 2020)

US markets were down 7% on Friday & almost all the Global Markets were down 6-7% on an Average. Asian Markets are also Negative. SGX Nifty indicating a 12% +(1050 Points) Cut in Pre - Open itself. That means we are going to open at a Lower Circuit Today. Every Possibility that we can go 20% lower Circuit today. The Financial Sector is going to get Impacted the most. Every business is down , Individual people who have taken loans etc will not be able to pay their EMI's so they will be Unable to repay the loans. Financial Sector will be Impacted the most in this kind of Scenario. Recession has already begun in the World Economy. We could be heading to a Great Depression as was done in Year 1930. Government seems to be Focusing only on the health issues of the Country & not focusing on the Economy Front. Previously , before Corona Scares we were Struggling on the Economy front now Corona Virus is a double whammy for Dalal Street. FIIs continue to sell at an amount

Pre - Market Report (20th March 2020)

US markets have Stabilises Yesterday & for the first time in last 10-15 Trading Sessions it has not moves more than 5%. Asian markets are all positive. SGX Nifty hit a low of 8000 yesterday night, now trading almost flat. Yesterday our markets experienced worst volatility. In first 3 minutes Bajaj Finance fell 20%, then shot up 20% only to fall 10%. 50% move in just one trading session, that too for a bluechip stock. Same was the case with many other stocks like HDFC Twins, Kotak Bank etc. Nifty fell 700 points then shot up 700 points and then fell 300 points. That is a total swing of about 20%. FIIs continue to sell at an amount of 4000 to 5000 crore. This kind of selling has not happened even in 2008. Now commodities also moving violently. Crude down 25% one day, 25% up next day. Coming to today's trade. I am expecting some Recovery/ short covering today. PM hinted some stimulus by saying 'Economic Task Force" headed by FM. Govts all

Pre - Market Report (19th March 2020)

US markets closed 10% lower Yesterday during which the returns under Trump have become Negative for Dow. PM Narendra Modi to address Nation today at 8 pm. We have been Outperforming all Global Markets in terms of Underperformance as our Government is not providing any STIMULUS any relief etc. Crude Oil has dropped from 70$ to 20$. India is a Big Beneficiary as we are Importers of oil. Government should easily benefit the Citizens due to the same. SGX Nifty hit a high of 8477 today morning but now lost more than 300 points. Now SGX trading below 8200. Don't Buy , Don't Buy , Don't Buy. Saying this since Nifty was near 12000. Saying this now as well. Nothing matters in these Markets. No levels , No technical Analysis . Buying Options today would be very high risk. Premiums are already high plus today is Expiry , any short covering move will decay the Premiums very Quick. So today I am just going to sell Options. As time is in my Favour and this appears

Pre - Market Report (18th March 2020)

US markets moved more than 4% positive or negative for 6 consecutive sessions in 1929 Great Depression. Yesterday it moved 4%, for the 6th consecutive session & now DOW futures are down more than 4%. This crisis is bigger than 2008 Financial crisis. SGX Nifty is trading between 9000 and 9100. In three trading sessions, FIIs have sold for US$2 billion. That is a huge selling. DIIs are actively supporting the markets. Option premiums are very high as India VIX keep increasing. Nifty 7700PE, least strike available, trading around Rs 40 even for tomorrow expiry. Bank Nifty 20100PE, least strike available, trading around Rs 290 for tomorrows expiry. I do not remember seeing this kind of premiums even in 2008. People are BEARISH to their neck. But in F&O, data looks encouraging as FIIs are covering their short positions, writing puts. As of now, SGX Nifty down suddendly to 8900. Continue to watch DOW futures, if that goes to lower circuits, more panic wil

Pre - Market Report (17th March 2020)

U.S Markets closed 13% lower Yesterday. The Biggest Fall in a Single day after 1987 crash. Trump Announced that the Corona Virus would be solved by July End in U.S & Corona Virus may lead to Recession is United States. Today morning SGX Nifty shot up to 9400 and then now trading around 9250. Number of Reported Cases of Corona Virus rise to 117. Remember these are only the reported & Government figures. These numbers will increase Drastically in the coming days. India should also start Complete lockdown as done is U.S . India is a highly Populated Country & Virus will spread like Wildfire. RBI Governer conducted a Press conference Yesterday & reported that Indian Economy will be effected by Ongoing Corona Virus issues. South Korea Central Bank cut rates after markets close yesterday, following the tradition of other countries, South Korea markets fell. Dow followed the tradition of one day up and one day down of more than 1000 points yesterday as

Pre - Market Report (16th March 2020)

Violent actions in Stock Markets since Friday morning. Our markets closed at lower circuit along with Soth Korea and Japan on Friday & during the 45 minutes closure, European and US futures shot up. Once we began to trade again, markets shot up. LIC reportedly pumped in large amount of money to support the market & also all Shorts were trapped which led to huge Short covering. Nifty future fell 1300 points then shot up 1800 points. Once our markets closed, action began in US markets. Trump announced Emergency in U.S through which it will help to release lot of money to fight against Corona & Dow ended 10% higher. Next day, Apple announced closure of all its stores outside China. Today Morning the biggest surprise came from Fed as Fed cut rates by 1%. It also announced QE of 700 billion and other liquidity measures. Other G7 countries also seems to be coordinating. Despite all these measures, US futures fell 5% to hit lower circuit. But some Asian markets are hig

11 Questions to ask Yourself before entering a Trade

If you are just randomly trading what you like with no real underlying system, method or planning then unfortunately your odds of success in the long term are slim. It is crucial that you create for yourself a system or methodology that enables you to trade in a way that historically wins, controls risk, and does not bring your ego and your emotions into your trading in a destructive way. Eleven questions to ask yourself before every trade: How Do I define my trading style, swing, momentum, break out, trend following, reversion to the mean, or day trading? How big of a position do I want to trade? How much capital am I going to risk? What is my risk of ruin based on my capital at risk Why am I entering the trade here? How will I exit with a profit? A price target or trailing stop? At what price will I know that I was wrong? Will I be able to admit I was wrong and exit the trade if my stop is hit, or will my ego make me hold and hope? Can I emo

Pre - Market Report (13th March 2020)

There is absolute panic everywhere. Bank Nifty fell more than 10%, Nifty fell close to 10% Yesterday US markets also fell 10% & hit lower Circuit Yesterday. Brazil fell 15% as their President tests positive for Corona Virus. Most Asian markets are down by 8 to 10%. SGX Nifty was also down close to 10%  but now recovered a bit from lows. Yesterday and today market phase is clearly "Capitulation" period & no effort by Govts or Central Banks is helping. Yesterday Europe fell just after ECB announcements. SGX Nifty fell just after RBI announcement of liquidity measures. Corona Virus headline news is getting worst, Canada's PM's wife and many other top people have been infected. No technical, No fundamental, nothing is working in this market currently. I think this is a great Opportunity to buy and one should deploy at least 40-50% cash at current levels. Do not worry where the Nifty or Sensex goes. Even if it goes down by 10% from curre

How do you take Advantage of this 30% Decline in Stock Markets?

It is a well Known fact that Corona Virus has destroyed all the Stock Markets Globally & all the Portfolio's ( last 1 Year) are down by an Average 20-30% at Minimum. This Article is for Beginners who are waiting on the Sidelines to get into the Stock Markets. This is a great time to start building Portfolio's of Quality Companies as Everything is Available at quite Reasonable Price. How & where should you Invest? Those who have Knowledge & Understanding of the Markets can start Accumulating Bluechip Stocks which are down 25-30% from their all time highs. Remember , this is not the time to go & hunt for Multibagger type of Stocks. Stick to the known names & accumulate Bluechip Stocks only. Those who cannot identify Companies themselves are advised to start investing via MULTICAP SIP ( MUTUAL FUNDS). SIP works best when Markets are down as you get to average your NAV at lower prices every Month. Do we know where & when will the Markets bottom O

Pre - Market Report (12th March 2020)

Pre Market Report: WHO ( World Health Organisation) announced Corona Virus as Pandemic & US markets fell by around 1400 Points. Trump spoke today morning & stated some Measures which he would take for revival but nothing seems to be helping markets right now. Asian markets are absolutely in panic. Corona Virus Fears are being extended day by day. Indigo Flight Bookings are down by 15-20% is last few weeks. NBA has been suspended as one player tests positive for Corona Virus & high likely that IPL also gets Postponed. SGX Nifty is down by over 500 points. This is the fourth such gap down in last one month. Markets will be in absolute panic in the first 30 minutes. So far Govt or RBI has not spoken anything to control the damage of Corona Virus. The only thing RBI can do now is to cut rates by 50 basis points before the market opens today. Americas "AMITABH BACHCHAN " Mr. TOM HANKS & his wife also tests positive for Corona Virus. U.S

Pre - Market Report (11th March 2020)

Pre Market Report: US markets are highly volatile as S&P 500 VIX hit a high of 61. Every day Dow is making more than 1000 points move. Day before yesterday it was down by about 2000 points, highest one day fall but Yesterday it was up by about 1200 as payroll Tax cut is being proposed. Right now Dow futures down by more than 700 points Yesterday our Markets were closed but SGX Nifty went all over the places from 10170 and 10600. SGX Nifty is trading about 50 points lower. Crude has recovered as Russia has been hinting at negotiation. Usually Govts and Central Banks take some action when markets are at lows. If RBI cut Interest rates and Markets Bounce due to this news , this would again be a good Opportunity to sell History shows that Markets have never recovered only after an Interest rate cut & Emergency rate cuts have infact made situations worse in the past. This Payroll Tax cut may trigger a rally in US markets as and when it comes. Tomorrow

Trading & Being Grateful

Gratitude? What on earth does it have to do with trading? Well, what if I told you that being grateful can have a real positive impact on both your trading results and on your life? Being Grateful & Trading Two of the states of mind that cause us to make many mistakes in trading are fear and anger. When you are truly feeling grateful for what you have, you are not feeling fearful or angry. You can’t be both grateful and scared. You can’t be both grateful and angry. Being grateful makes you less scared of losing money. If you are less afraid of losing, it is easier to respect your stop and accept a small loss. It is also easier to just stay in a trade as long as your strategy doesn’t trigger a sell signal. Being grateful makes you focus on what you already have as opposed to what you lack. So it makes it easier for you to wait patiently for the next trade and avoid FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) trades. Being grateful for what you already have will make you less

Pre - Market Report (9th March 2020)

Gulf markets are open on Sundays as they are closed on Fridays. Yesterday Kuwait market fell 10% and hit lower circuit and hence it was closed. Saudi Arabia down by more than 8%. Brent Crude fell from US$50 on Friday morning to about US$31 today morning. All Global markets are down. Nikkei, Hang Seng down by more than 1000 points & also DOW futures also down by more than 1000 points. Most markets are down by 4%. European futures also fell 4%. SGX Nifty is down by about 300 points. This crash is the worst after 2008 financial crisis. Crude is down by 25% while Gold is at all time highs US$1700. So it is absolute panic everywhere but India's position may not be that bad. India is a beneficiary of fall in Crude prices as we are the biggest Importers of Crude. India has already fallen due to local cues like YES Bank issue ,so the fall may not be very bad here.(In line with Global Markets) Nifty had hit a low of 10670 on Sep 19, 2019. We can expect an In

Pre - Market Report (6th March 2020)

Dow was up 1000 Points on Wednesday & Down 1000 Points Yesterday. World markets are down, due to Corona Virus fear. Markets are struggling to cope with Corona Virus. What's more worse is that at the wrong time RBI has taken action against YES Bank. YES Bank Board taken over by RBI, limits withdrawals. I have been Repeatedly saying in Public to avoid Yes Bank since the levels of 120-130. This will create panic in SGX Nifty & will pose a Question about our Indian Banking System. SGX Nifty has hit a low of 10800. YES Bank issue has been handled just like US handled Lehman Bros. US Fed cut rates by 50 basis point before markets open last Tuesday. RBI will have to do something like that, otherwise, panic will be more. US Govt as well as Fed are Working very hard to drop down the Panic and Fear & grow the Economy. In India, it is doubtful. BJP 2.0 do not seem to bother about Economy. They are worried about Citizenship , Shaheen Bagh , Cast Based Poli

Pre - Market Report (5th March 2020)

Dow closed more than 1000 points higher. Volatility had begin last Monday & since then, out of 8 trading sessions, I think Dow moved more than 1000 point up or down on 6 days. Asian markets are positive. India is not following Global cues now as the Fear of Corona Virus in India is driving India markets crazy. Yesterday it was so volatile, Bank Nifty fell more than 1000 points and recovered more than 600 points from low. But FII sell figure has come down, below Rs 1000 crore, for first time in last two weeks. DIIs also have bought for less than Rs 1000 crore. Today is weekly expiry, so volatility is likely to continue. Despite strong Global cues, SGX Nifty has been trading in Red. Corona Virus fear seems to be receeding, particularly in China & is increasing in India. SBI Card IPO, QIB portion over subscribed by 57 times.  Those who haven't Subscribed yet , today is the last day to Subscribe. It is likely to over subscribe by more than 100 times as

Pre - Market Report (4th March 2020)

Pre Market Report: US markets fell Yesterday after rising more than 5% the day before. Dow fell about 800 points. Fed cut rates by 50 basis point in a surprising move, 2 weeks ahead of Fed meeting. This is the first out of turn rate cut by Fed after 2008 financial crisis. Other Govts are also acting & cutting interest rates to ensure Financial Growth & Liquidity in the System. Yesterday Australia and Malaysia cut rates. South Korea announced about 10 billion extra budget measures. US is planning fiscal measures also in addition to monetary measures. Now pressure mounts on RBI to cut rates. If RBI cuts rates, there will be powerful short covering. SGX Nifty is down by 60 points. Asian markets are mixed. Weekly options will add to volatility. Yesterday SGX Nifty hit 11220, then shot up to 11440 just after Fed rate cut, only to fall back to 11220. SGX Nifty swung more than 500 points. Markets may be highly volatile but may trade between 11000 an

Pre - Market Report (3rd March 2020)

Pre Market Report: Yesterday everything was going good but only till Afternoon until news of Corona Virus reported in India struck in and Market reacted severely to it. Nifty fell 400 points and Bank Nifty fell 1000 points before recovering some lost ground. Overnight US markets shot up more than 5%. Trump is trying his level best to Co-ordinate with Pharma Companies and to come up with a Solution for Corona Virus also Central Banks action relating to some rate cuts also played a major role. G7 Finance Ministers will meet together in a conference call. The problem now is that India may not follow Global cues. FIIs have sold for Rs 1354 crores. DIIs have bought for Rs 1138 crores. So the problem is not coming from Institutional side. SBI fell more than 8% from intraday high. GAIL has become a two digit stock. Moral of the story: No matter how cheap, do not invest in PSU stocks. ONGC at 15 year low, became two digit stock few days before. SGX Nifty broke 1

My View on SBI Cards IPO

Overview of SBI Card (a) They are the second-largest credit card issuer in India, with an  18.0%  market share of the Indian credit card market in terms of the number of credit cards outstanding as of September 30, 2019. SBI Card is a subsidiary of State Bank of India. (b)  They offer an extensive credit card portfolio to individual cardholders and corporate clients which includes lifestyle, rewards, travel and fuel, shopping, banking partnership cards and corporate cards covering all major cardholder segments in terms of income profiles and lifestyles. (c)  It has a sales force of 33,086 outsourced sales personnel as of September 30, 2019, operating out of 133 Indian cities. Had a presence in 3,009 open market points of sale across India as of September 30, 2019. In addition, its partnership with SBI provides access to SBI’s extensive network of 22,007 branches across India, which enables it to market credit cards to SBI’s vast customer base of 43.6 Crores customers

Pre - Market Report (2nd March 2020) Pre Market Report: February was the Worst Month for Stock Market. We are beginning March with some optimism as GDP Data was a bit higher. Over the weekend, first death reported from US and Australia. China Manufacturing PMI came at 35, the lowest on record & Chinese Markets shed 500 points in the Morning due to this. Dow futures were down 500 points in the early morning. Then came the news: BOJ's Kuroda says will take steps to stabilize markets & all markets recovered after this news. Japan's Nikkei index shot up about 400 points. But any bounce will used by short sellers to sell. As the announcements by Fed and BoJ are general in nature, no specific announcements. Auto sales data for February are very bad, except for Maruti. Maruti sales fell by a couple of percentage while Tata Motors and M&M sales fell 35, 40%. Remember on Friday, only two stocks closed in Green, Maruti and IOC. So markets seems to know the