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Showing posts from January, 2024

Preparing for Budget Day !! (31st Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday. 2. Right now , Dow futures are flat. 3. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 40 + Points. 4. Yesterday was a day of profit booking in major large cap stocks. 5. Reliance which carried the markets single handedly witnessed profit booking Yesterday.  6. Advance - Decline ratio was 50-50. 7. Means the number of declining stocks were equal to the number of advancing stocks. 8. Nifty , Bank Nifty do not reflect true picture of yesterday's broader market. 9. Coming to the main event which is the Union Budget. 10. We are going to have an interim budget this year. 11. Interim budget this year because this is an Election Year. 12. The new Government which is formed will publish a complete budget. 13. This budget I'm expecting it to be a non - event on max basis. 14. My reasoning is firstly it's an interim budget. 15. Secondly , this is an election year so Government won't bring major decisions in this interim budget. 16.

21850 is the key !! (30th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. 2. Right now , Dow futures are lower. 3. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 100 points. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Markets in January series were highly Volatile. 6. Feb series has started with a Bang. 7. Nifty was up almost 400 points yesterday. 8. The star of the show Yesterday was Reliance. 9. Reliance was up more than 7% Yesterday.  10. Reliance Market cap including Jio Financials crossed 20L crores yesterday. 11. We have reached closer to the upper end of the range in just a day. 12. 21850 is the upper end of the range level now  13. Markets have faces resistance many times in the past closer to this level. 14. Crossing this level is imperative for the rally to continue. 15. It's good to see large cap stocks performing with full force. 16. If we close above 21850 today then we will be heading towards 22k and then 22200. 17. Banks are still not out of the woods now 18. Specially the private sector Banks. 19. Publ

Welcome Feb :) (29th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed net positive if combined on Thursday & Friday Night. 2. Right now , Dow futures are lower. 3. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 100 points. 4. Asian Markets are higher. 5. Markets in January were highly Volatile. 6. Markets were all over the place & there were big intraday moves. 7. Today marks the first trading day for Feb series. 8. Lots of triggers for Feb series currently.  9. Many companies are yet to declare results & it would be done over this week. 10. Most important trigger is the Union Budget. 11. Though its only an interim budget but still there would be some repercussions.  12. 21150-21200 which was the January low is a very important support level. 13. We are close to these support levels so we can expect a bounce. 14. Bank Nifty was hammered during Jan series. 15. I somewhere feel that 5000 point correction on Bank Nifty on the back of results was overdone.  16. Expecting Banks to come back strong in coming months.

Jan Expiry !! (25th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday. 2. Right now , Dow futures are higher 3. Gift Nifty is indicating a flattish opening.  4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Markets in January have been highly Volatile. 6. There have been some erratic moves that were nowhere out of expectations  7. Daily range for nifty in Jan was 300 points average. 8. Bank Nifty is much higher. 9. Yesterday once again Bulls were to the rescue. 10. Nifty took support from 21150. 11. Bank Nifty finally seems like the dust has settled. 12. Bank Nifty is down 3000+ Points from its high in Jan. 13. Nifty range now for me is 21150 to 21850. 14. Within this 700 point range Nifty has been moving with huge Volatility.  15. Bank Nifty is better to avoid now as it's going through problems of its own. 16. Downside looks capped in Bank Nifty as of now. 17. Entering with low expectations for a major event like Budget is always good. 18. Although it's an interim budget so there won't be much takeaways from t

Expiry Week Tactics !! (23rd Jan 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are mixed. 3. Gift Nifty is indicating a flattish opening.  4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Saturday was a special trading session as Monday was a holiday.  6. Many traders and investors didn't have any clue even on Saturday that the markets were open. 7. As it was announced quite late & was a last minute decision by the exchanges. 8. That's why there were very low volumes on Saturday. 9. Both the FII' s & DII"s were enjoying a holiday.  10. Mutual funds were closed on Saturday hence there was a minimal DII activity 11. FII's were mainly in leave. 12. Markets in January have been quite Volatile but within a range. 13. It broke 21800 but the momentum couldn't sustain.  14. It broke 21300 on the lower end but again came back into the range  15. Bank Nifty witnessed Saturday buying but it was on low participation. 16. Hence the rally is to be confirmed today. 17. ICICI Bank came

Gift Nifty overreacting??? (17th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are lower. 3. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 200 points. 4. This is quite a huge gap down. 5. 22000 PE had the highest open interest & these put writers are In trouble at the open itself  6. All the Global Markets are down. 7. Asian markets are also down. 8. There's a sea of Red when one opens the screen. 9. There have been some news that Iran is attacking Pakistan. 10. This Geo political tension is also adding to the negative sentiment.  11. HDFC Bank had come up with the results yesterday.  12. Net interest income was the lowest in its history. 13. Hdfc bank is likely to open 2% gap down today. 14. I also feel that this 200 point gap down is a bit of exaggeration.  15. We might not open as low as what Gift Nifty is suggesting. 16. Even if we open 200 points lower , we open at important support levels. 17. 21800 is an important support. 18. Shorting isn't advisable at the open as the ris

Imp Support at 22k (16th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets were shut Yesterday.  2. So we do not have any major global triggers today. 3. Right now , Dow futures are lower. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a flat opening. 5. Yesterday Nifty closed at another fresh all time high. 6. After a big gap up yesterday above 22k , there was slight profit booking. 7. Nifty took the support at 22k and again started to move higher. 8. Nifty IT , Pharma & Banks were the buzzing sectors yesterday.  9. Bank Nifty zoomed up 700+ Points yesterday.  10. 48k for Bank Nifty and 22k for Nifty are 2 important support levels now. 11. Lot of open interest has also been added in these options. 12. The way markets have ignored all the negatives all keeps rallying shows clearly that we are in a Bullish market. 13. Bull markets last longer than expected. 14. Bull Markets always end bad. 15. As traders we have to keep in mind to follow the trend and not become fundamental analysts. 16. I expect nifty to trade between 22k to 22,200 for a while. 17

Breakout !! (15th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly higher Yesterday.  2. All the Indices closed higher. 3. Right now , Dow futures are flat. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up opening of 70+ Points. 5. On Friday nifty crossed the important Hurdle of 21850. 6. It just didn't cross this crucial level , it closed above this. 7. This indicates bullishness in the markets. 8. This range was taken out after 2 weeks ie , almost 10-11 trading sessions. 9. There are many call writers at 22k & 48200 for Bank Nifty. 10. If this gap up sustains , they would be trapped. 11. That itself would take the markets even higher. 12. Support at 21800. 13. Unless 21800 doesn't break,  Bullish view is valid. 14. Nifty looks much strong now than Bank Nifty.  15. Thanks to IT company results. 16. IT companies were on fire at Friday. 17. Wipro ADR closed higher by 18%. 18. Today WIPRO is likely to open at least 10% higher. 19. IT index has the second highest weightage in Nifty , IT Stocks haven't perfor

Absolutely Flat Markets !! (12th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. All the Indices closed flat. 3. Right now , Dow futures are flat. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a very flat Opening. 5. Yesterday was a flat expiry. 6. Nifty traded for the whole day within 100 point range  7. There were some major red & green candles in between but it was in a range. 8. Since the beginning of January , I've sold Put options below 21k and Call Options above 22k  9. ViX was at 15+ when I had taken these trades. 10. I've been handsomely rewarded without any headache  11. Most of the days I don't look at my screen itself. 12. MTM keeps rising day by day without doing anything. 13. This is the way to make stress free money in the markets. 14. U.S CPI data came as per expectations. 15. U.S Markets were volatile yesterday. 16. Dow Jones was down 300 points at one point of time in the first half . 17. It recovered most of its losses in the 2nd half. 18. No fresh triggers to get market out of that range.  19.

Reversal or Pullback Rally? (11th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. All the Indices closed higher. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a very minor Gap up opening. 5. Yesterday was again a volatile trading day. 6. January price action is getting Volatile day by day. 7. Nifty went through big correction in the first half and made a panic bottom. 8. Then in the second half it began to reverse. 9. The issue with trading currently is the stoploss are getting hit due to the ongoing Volatility.  10. If you buy a call option expecting a reversal , the price action will first hit your stoploss and then target. 11. Trading without stoploss is highly dangerous so that should also be avoided. 12. Market once again wasn't able to break lower end of it's range Yesterday. 13. For the whole of January month , Nifty has been trading within 300 point range. 14. It's swinging like a pendulum , up - down , up - down but ultimately not going anywhere. 15. Maybe whole of Janu

Rally from 21500 today? (10th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. Nasdaq closed slightly in green whereas S&P 500 & Dow Jones closed lower. 3. Right now , Dow futures are slightly lower. 4. Yesterday was a huge Volatile day. 5. January price action is getting Volatile day by day. 6. Although,  the Volatility is within a range but it's still mind boggling. 7. Yesterday,  Nifty opened with a 100 point gap up , then the short covering happened and Nifty rallied more 100 points. 8. In the 2nd half , from the levels of 21700 , there was a big reversal and Nifty closed near 21500 levels. 9. This sort of consolidation is good for the Bulls in long term. 10. December was an excellent month for the Bulls. 11. Consolidation in the Month of January would mean markets are taking a pause before further rally. 12. Markets don't move in a straight line all their life. 13. It moves in peaks & Valles. 14. Today after the gap down opening , expect markets to take support near 21450-21500 range.

Gap up from lower end of the Range !! (9th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are mixed. 3. Asian markets have recovered significantly from Yesterday lows. 4. Nasdaq outperformed Yesterday and was up more than 2%. 5. Markets are going through a consolidation phase. 6. Bank Nifty was the underperformer yesterday and today it might outperform. 7. Nifty closed near the lower end of the range yesterday.  8. Today we are witnessing a big gap up. 9. Nifty range is 21500 to 21800 and this I've been pointing out on a daily basis  10. Bank Nifty is trading within 47500 to 48200. 11. The issue to trade this range now is yesterday markets closed at the lower end of the range. 12. Traders expected the lower End of range ie , 21500 to break with a gap down. 13. Very few expected a reversal and bought calls. 14. Reversals happening intraday are the best ones to trade. 15. Reversals that are happening by large gaps are just luck if you made money. 16. This is because gap openings won't go i

Rangebound Markets !! (8th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now , Dow Futures are lower. 3. Asian markets are lower. 4. Nasdaq has been the underperformer from last 5 trading sessions. 5. In last 5 trading sessions Nasdaq is down by 3-4%. 6. Gift Nifty is indicating a small gap down opening. 7. Nifty has taken support from 21500 and recovered on expiry day. 8. It tried to cross 21800 but couldn't gather momentum. 9. So the range for nifty is 21500 to 21800. 10. Buying emerges close to lower end of the range which is 21500. 11. Selling pressure starts close to 21800. 12. 2023 was a great year for mid & Small caps and also for Nifty. 13. Nifty rallied 20% in 2023. 14. Expect 2024 to be a Year of Consolidation. 15. U.S VIX crashed 5% on Friday. 16. India VIX is already below 13. 17. Option premiums have collapsed during last 5 trading sessions. 18. Option sellers shouldn't get overconfident and shift to very close premiums now itself. 19. One big move or rise in VIX could was

Ranging Market !! (5th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Nasdaq has been tye underperformer from last 4 trading sessions. 5. In last 4 trading sessions Nasdaq is down by 3-4%. 6. Gift Nifty is indicating a very flat opening. 7. Nifty has taken support from 20500 and recovered Yesterday. 8. So the range for nifty is 21500 to 21800. 9. In the Month of January , Nifty has been trading within this range. 10. One another good thing about Yesterday was the fall in India VIX. 11. India VIX was down another 3% Yesterday and the option premiums have cooled down. 12. During the beginning of the month all the premiums were quite costly. 13. Gradual correction in India VIX has cooled over the premiums. 14. Yesterday the advances were also In favour than the declines. 15. Which indicates that we are in a strong market. 16. Making money in the Month of January won't be as easy as it was in the Month of December. 17. December was a

IT Stocks Crash !! (4th Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets were lower Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are down. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 20-30 Points. 5. GIFT Nifty is difficult to understand and strange sometimes. 6. Yesterday even though  Global markers were down it is indicating a positive opening. 7. Also one more thing is Gift Nifty doesn't guarantee exact opening. 8. We may open different as well. 9. U.S VIX was up 6% Yesterday  10. India VIX was down yesterday.  11. India VIX was down 3% Yesterday and option premiums have come off massively. 12. After a small gap up opening there would be an immediate sell off and Nifty would test 21500. 13. If 21500 gets broken , then we are heading even lower. 14. If 21500 does not break , then we may expect a short covering bounce. 15. There is huge Call writing in options as markets traded lower for whole of this week. 16. So the important level to watch out for today is 21500. 17. Yesterday advance decline was in favo

Correction?? (3rd Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets were lower Yesterday.  2. Right now , Dow Futures are flat. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 60-70 Points. 5. U.S VIX was up 6% Yesterday  6. India VIX is close to 15 now. 7. 15 VIX is generally termed as high Volatility zone. 8. The Volatility since the beginning of January Is also on a rise. 9. Nifty is making 100 point move in a span of 10 minutes. 10. Bank Nifty is even worse. 11. Also since the beginning of January there has been a correction.  12. Nifty is down from its all time high of 21850. 13. Markets have rose up a lot in the Month of December. 14. A correction before a big event like Budget is always healthy for the markets. 15. The Volatility at which it is happening is what worries me. 16. Yesterday's low of 21580 is the immediate support. 17. If this goes out then we may head even lower. 18. Generally on Wednesdays there is an increase in Volatility and first half market remains in pressure and there'

Rally to Continue? (2nd Jan 2024)

1. U.S Markets were shut Yesterday. 2. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. Gift Nifty is indicating a slightly positive opening.  5. U.S VIX is below 13 currently.  6. India VIX is close to 14. 7. This is generally expected as this is an Election year. 8. India VIX has a history of being higher pre - elections. 9. Also we have a budget Coming up next month. 10. Though its a vote on account budget but there would be lot of speculations going around. 11. 21600 is the support & 21800 is the resistance. 12. Markets are hovering within this range of 200 points. 13. Many market participants are asking me my view for the Year 2024. 14. Many market participants also give their view for the New Year. 15. IMHO , do not trust or do not believe any of the opinion because nobody knows what's going to happen. 16. Everybody expected 2023 to be a mild year given so many negatives floating around. 17. What actually happened is markets have surprised a