Skip to main content


Showing posts from October, 2021

Pre - Market Analysis (29th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed at record highs yesterday. Right now Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is flat at 17880. The talk of the town is IRCTC. Government has announced that IRCTC has to share 50% of convenience fee with Govt. The stock is in split and shares have not been credited yet to demat. This sudden news will cause a panic in the Market. People invest in the company looking at its management and Trust . IRCTC was preferred because of its Monopoly and no intervention in Corporate Governance. This change will hit a big damage and impact the reputation of the Management. October Expiry was the worst for Bulls. Markets crashed Yesterday due to heavy FII selling and also Expiry related issues. 17800 is the critical level for today. If we close below 17800 today then it's time to become bearish in the short run. If we manage to hold on today then we can expect stability going forward. Traditionally November is a very good month for Bulls. Last 3 Years November has given p

Pre - Market Analysis (28th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is flat at 18220. Yesterday it was a boring Market until 2 pm. Last 1 hour , Nifty fell 100 Points and Bank Nifty by 200 Points. This is due to huge FII selling. FII's have been booking profits heavily and have sold more than 12k crores in last 5 trading sessions. Due to such heavy selling market is trading violently between 18000 to 18500. In spite of such big selling by FII's Nifty is down by only from 300 Points from all time high. This is because the DII's and the retail keep supporting Market as lower levels. Yesterday all the Banking stocks witnessed heavy profit booking. Axis Bank came out very good results but it fell 6% thereafter. Predicting stock specific move after results is too tricky as it all depends on F&O positions lined up. Expecting November to be a very boring month for trend followers whereas highly profitable for option sellers. Expecting VIX to crash belo

Pre - Market Analysis (27th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat yesterday. Right now Asian Markets are lower. SGX Nifty is flat at 18260. Yesterday it was a surprise rally in our Markets . From past 1 week all the gap ups and rallies have been sold into. Yesterday the Markets reversed and witnessed some short covering towards the end. Nifty closed at the highest point of the day. India VIX fell 6%. It was a dream day for option writers. Today will be an Equally volatile and difficult day for option writers. Wednesdays are generally highly volatile and Market turns violently on both the sides. Yesterday because of some good corporate results Nifty outperformed Bank Nifty. After Market hours Axis Bank has come out with results and it were better than expectations. Banking stocks have run up too quick in last week so have to see the reaction of the stock. 18000 seems to be a strong support now for our Markets. For November Month as well , highest open interest added at 18000 PE. Expect Nifty to expire between 18100

Pre - Market Analysis (26th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed at record highs Yesterday. More than 80% of the U.S Companies have declared better than expected results. Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is up 30,40 points. Yesterday we opened above 18200 but within minutes markets crashed. 18000 was broken for a brief amount of time and Market touched 17950. Then we had witnessed a sharp recovery from those levels. Reliance in spite of declaring good results seemed dull yesterday. ICICI Bank was the star of the show. Up more than 10% yesterday and single handedly took Bank Nifty higher. Bank Nifty at a brief moment was up 1300 Points. Profit booking was witnessed after that and it closed 700-800 points higher. Yesterday HDFC Bank was down more a percent. This is a classical Market situation where one business captures Market share from other. HDFC Bank was the most loved FII stock but since Aditya Puri resigned it has lost its Mojo. Money has now been shifting to ICICI and Axis. Bank Nifty still has enough legs to c

Pre - Market Analysis (25th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. Asian Markets and Dow Futures are flat now. SGX Nifty is Trading near 18150. Markets have been super volatile from last 4 trading sessions. Nifty has corrected 550 Points from 18600. Bank Nifty keeps hitting fresh highs. There was a time when Nifty was hitting fresh highs on regular basis. Bank Nifty was flat. Now the tide has changed and money is flowing to Banking stocks. ICICI Bank over the weekend has declared box office results. Reliance results were good as well. The problem for the Market is FII selling. FII's have been selling very aggressively from last 4 trading sessions. Selling more than 2000 crores on a daily basis. This is causing a negative sentiment in our Markets specially in Nifty for a short term. The issue is many traders have been stuck at higher levels as they have been used to such corrections  Also this is one of the longest corrections in last one month. Expect Markets to remain volatile and also there are man

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd October 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. S & P 500 hit a fresh all time high Yesterday. Asian Markets and Dow futures are flat now. Yesterday was the most Volatile expiry after March 2021. In March Monthly expiry I remember Nifty fell 200 Points Intraday , recovered all the losses and again fell during the day. It was a 3 sided move but fortunately was only 2 sided. I have stopped doing weekly options sellng on Expiry and on Expirys I'm shifting to next week expiry options. Reason is premiums are too low and moves like yesterday can make you bankrupt. For earning pennies the risk is too high. Yesterday DII's turned buyers after selling for 2 days continuously. FII's still remain net sellers. In the past I've observed no correction has lasted over 500 points on Nifty. Last month Nifty fell from 17950 to 17450 made a bottom and then blaste higher. This week we have got a correction of 500 points exactly. Also most of Nifty stocks are down 3-4% except banks and R

Pre - Market Analysis (21st October 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Dow hit a fresh all time high yesterday. Asian markets are higher  SGX Nifty is at 18350. Our Markets have been going through a brutal correction phase. Yesterday Nifty was less than a percent but I can assure you most of the portfolios have been down by 3-4%. Midcap index fell 2.5% yesterday. This is a very healthy correction as the over leveraged and over valued hyped stocks have been coming to fair valuations. Correction isn't over yet and I expect the weakness to continue for short term. Global Markets might keep hitting fresh highs but here we might face temporary underperformance. Last hour reversal is just due to Volatility and that cannot be stated as a recovery. Only if we get a closing above 18500 can we say the Market is strong. Bank Nifty is outperforming the Nifty  Yesterday Nifty closed -0.8% lower but Bank Nifty closed flat. PSU Banks witnessed significant buying yesterday. 18000 and 18200 has the highest open interest

Pre - Market Analysis (20th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Nasdaq is just 1% away from record highs. Technology stocks are outperforming both in U.S and India. Right now Asian markets and Dow futures are flat. SGX Nifty is Trading at 18450 almost flat. Yesterday was a highly volatile trading day. Nifty witnessed a huge gap up near 18600 and this got sold into within minutes. Market recovered swiftly during the day and closed near 18400. Yesterday there was heavy profit booking in momentum stocks. All the stocks that have rallied too quick too fast started to fall. Nifty heavyweights were mostly higher yesterday it was just broader Market collapse. HDFC Bank ADR was up 2.5% yesterday in U.S Market. Can expect it to outperform today as well. Wednesdays are mostly volatile trading days but I feel today could be a silent day as we have witnessed volatility yesterday. Expect Banking stocks to continue outperforming. HUL results didn't help the Markets either. As soon as the resukts were announced

Pre - Market Analysis (19th October 2021)

U.S Markets were down 300 Points at one point of time but closed almost flat. Nasdaq is just 2% away from record highs. Right now Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty is Trading at 18560 now indicating another 70-80 point gap up. Well this is a run away Market that we are witnessing. Huge gap ups being sustained and while traders are waiting for dips to enter into , the dips are not coming. Yesterday was the day of IT Stocks , Metals and PSU Banks. HDFC bank declared good results but it witnessed profit booking. All the other Banking stocks shot up yesterday. SBI hit a lifetime high of ₹500 on Intraday basis. I still somehow feel a short correction is imminent but we cannot predict the time. Market might run up even more and then correct. One should manage the risk and go with the Market. The trend is surely up and there's no question of it. Rather than looking to sell , the focus should be to buy at important levels. HDFC Bank ADR was up 0.7% yesterday in U.S so Expecti

Pre - Market Analysis (18th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Thursday and Friday. Dow Rallied 1000 Points in these 2 days. Right now Dow Futures are flat and Asian Markets are lower. China GDP data was announced today Morning which was below Expectations. Hence , Asian Markets are under pressure. SGX Nifty is Trading near 18420 now. It has been a dream run for our Markets in October. October 1st low was 17450 and now it's nearly a 1000 Point rally considering SGX. This rally is without the support of IT index. Bank Nifty has also witnessed a phenomenal rally of close to 2500 Points for October. The talking Point over the weekend was HDFC Bank results. Media has been reporting it's above Expectations but the issue here is Stock has already rallied before results. Any disappointment found in results would lead to a big fall. TCS hit fresh ATH before results of 4000 , results were not that bad but the Stock fell. Move after the results is quite difficult to predict because it's totally onto the E

Pre - Market Analysis (14th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. Right now , Asian Markets are higher. Dow Futures is higher more than 100 Points. SGX Nifty is at 18250. It was a breath taking rally yesterday in our Markets. Usually Wednesdays are considered to be highly volatile but yesterday was an easy trending day. All the call writers and short sellers had to run for cover propelling the Market higher. Generally the gap ups do not sustain but once momentum continues it can go far. Chasing today's gap up is not advisable. We have already 200+ Points yesterday. Let Market come near 17150-17200 to enter once again. At October beginning , when Nifty was at 17550 I said that low of 17450 would be a bottom for our Markets. At least for October series. There's no looking back since then. Infosys results were above the street expectations. Infosys ADR closed 4% higher in U.S. Today we can expect 2-3% gap up in Infosys. Yesterday U.S Fed has indicated of beginning the taper tantrum process from Nove

Pre - Market Analysis (13th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. Right now , Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty is at 18050. Yesterday was quite a surprising day for the Markets. SGX was indicating a huge gap down of 100+ Points. But we opened only 30 Points lower. Then Market fell during the day but closed near 18000 towards the end. Again a record closing for our Markets. This Market is looking very strong. Money has now been shifting from IT Sticks to Banks. This is what happens in a classical Bull Market. Sectoral Rotation under which investors book profit in one sector and it's overvalued. Money moves to other sectors. Staying with the winners is the way to make big. Today is Wednesday and Wednesday trades are highly volatile. 18000 CE still continues to have highest open interest. If we sustain above 18050 then there is a chance of short covering rally. 17900 is a good support now. Infosys is set to declare results today and after TCS results the expectations have been lowered. If Infosys can

Pre - Market Analysis (12th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Right now , Asian Markets are flat. SGX Nifty is at 17880. We are likely to have a gap down opening today. 17800 PE added high open interest yesterday. This should be a strong support for the Markets. Dips should be bought into with a stoploss of 17800 on Nifty. Bank Nifty outperformed Yesterday and took Nifty higher. IT index fell 3% yesterday still Nifty managed to cross 18k. 17800 to 18k is the range for Nifty in short term. Expecting some recovery in the IT Sector from here. TCS results were good but the street expectations were too high. Tomorrow , Infosys is coming with the results and that's going to be an important event for the Markets. Sectoral Rotation has been happening and money is being from IT sector to Banks. That's the reason of outperformance of Banks yesterday. 18000 CE continues to have high open interest inspite of nifty crossing 18k yesterday. Nifty might Trade between 17800 to 18040 today  stockmarketadvisor

Pre - Market Analysis (11th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat on Friday. Right now , Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty is at 17900. TCS has declared results over the weekend and the results seem sub-par. We cannot judge how a stock reacts just after results as it depends on the long -short position existing during that instance. IT Stocks have run up quite a lot factoring in good results and now any sort of disappointment could be damaging. Over the weekend Reliance announced Takeover of Solar company. It was done to tighten its grip in the power sector. 18000 CE has the highest open interest in weekly as well as monthly expiry. Despite Nifty going to 17940 on Friday , open interest kept adding. These sellers are quite confident on Nifty not taking out 18k soon. If by any means 18k gets taken out , Market will rally 100-200 Points in no time. All these writers could be trapped propelling the Market higher. RBI Policy as expected was status quo on Friday and INDIA VIX fell considerably. Option premiums on both

Pre - Market Analysis (8th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets were on fire Yesterday. Right now the Dow Futures and Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty right now is at 17860. Usually when the Wednesdays are very volatile it's always a sideways expiry. Yesterday was quite a silent and sideways expiry. From today we will be having Corporate results coming up. TCS will be the first company to declare results. My Gut feeling is that this Quarter is going to be fantastic for all the sectors and profits would be the highest ever witnessed. Many of the promoters and Directors will be surprised looking at the performance. Demand is quite high across all the sectors currently. Yesterday Mahindra lauched XUV and 25000 bookings were done in 57 minutes. These are some extraordinary numbers reported by any Auto Company. Diwali is coming up and last year Indians couldn't celebrate it due to Covid. This year we Indians would be celebrating it twice as grand as possible. Titan has shot up 10%

Pre - Market Analysis (7th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty right now is at 17780. There's only one word to describe the current Market and that is "Volatile". Market has been Highly volatile for this October. Nifty went up from 17450 to 17850. Then fell to 17600 Yesterday and now indicating a big big gap up. Probably until Results declaration and RBI Policy which is due tomorrow, the Volatility is likely to continue. Such Volatility is not good for short term traders and Option sellers specifically. U.S Markets in Pre - Market were down 300 Points but have now recovered and are in Green. U.S VIX fell by 15% Yesterday from day high. Yesterday India VIX rose 5% , expecting it to come back to Normal today. Bank Nifty actually closed stronger than Nifty that's due to HDFC Bank. Bank Nifty was down 0.5% whereas Nifty closed 1% lower Yesterday. Nifty future was trading at discount Yesterday this shows that the Market has been oversold. 17700 to 179

Pre - Market Analysis (6th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets were higher. SGX Nifty right now is at 17780. Talk of the town is Moody's upgrade. 2 years ago Moody's had rated a Negative outlook for India. Yesterday they have changed their stance and have changed it to stable. This is a positive local news. Yesterday I had mentioned that any dip due to Global cues should be bought into. Market opened 30 points lower Yesterday and it was a perfect buying opportunity. We have crossed important resistance of 17750 on Nifty. 17750 had the highest open interest in weekly options & these writers had to run for cover Yesterday. Our Market is fairly strong and every dip is a buying opportunity. 18000 for the Nifty is on the cards and Market will surprise you on the upside. Reliance led the rally after 2 pm. Reliance was up 2% yesterday after 2 pm and this led to large rally. PSU Bank's especially SBI looks strong and can reach 500 in short term. India VIX was down another 3% ye

Pre - Market Analysis (5th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Asian Markets crashed Yesterday. Nikkei was down 4% Yesterday. SGX Nifty right now is at 17600. OPEC Pointed out Yesterday for not increasing their Crude Oil Production. This led to shooting up of Crude Oil Prices. Crude Oil has crossed 81$ / Barrel. Facebook , Instagram and WhatsApp were down 6 hours Yesterday. Also there have been reports of Stealing  users data by hackers. This led to panic selling in IT stocks Yesterday in U.S. Nasdaq was down more than 3% at one Point. Yesterday was an Unexpected rally in our Markets even when Global Cues were Negative. 17450 is a strong support and 17750 is a strong area of resistance. Expecting markets to move violently within this range. Expecting a Breakout out of this range in the second week of October. Right now we are stuck between Weak Global Cues and Positive local cues. These sort of dips should be bought into at every declines. We are in a strong uptrend now. When Global Markets start to

Pre - Market Analysis (4th October 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Asian Markets are lower. SGX Nifty is Trading near 17560. On Friday Night SGX Nifty was indicating an Opening near 17650. Today Morning there was a news that China bans Trading of Evergrande shares in Stock Exchange. As the Company defaults debt obligation payment. This led to panic selling in China and Hong Kong. HDFC reports a 135% increase in the Loan Book and that's a staggering number. I feel HDFC twins have been bottomed out and should go higher from here. FII's turned into net buyers on Friday though the figure was small. DII's continue to support the Market at lower levels. Unless there's any significant news out of the Blue I feel 17450 is a short term bottom for our Markets. Nifty fell 500 Points from 17950 all the way to 17450. Corrections of 500 Points have been bought into very aggressively in the past. Also I expect corporate results to be above Expectations for this Month. This effect will be felt from Next

Pre - Market Analysis (1st October 2021)

U.S Markets were about 200 Points higher Yesterday during trading hours but have closed 500 Points lower . Asian Markets are lower. SGX Nifty is Trading near 17450. September was a very Good Month compared on close to close basis. Nifty rallied 900 Points in September. Currently we are in a situation stuck between very bad Global cues and Excellent local cues. Global Markets are in a heavy correction phase ahead of Inflation data tonight by U.S. On the Other hand , Tax Corrections , Sector Growth data have been excellent locally. Generally , gap downs due to Macro news offer a good opportunity to buy into. I'm Expecting the same for today. This gap down is a good buying Opportunity for short term traders and long term investors. October series I'm Expecting a positive situation for our Markets. Auto Sales data are going to come out today. I do not expect them to very good and that seems to be priced into the prices. Markets have been highly volatile from last 10 tra