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Showing posts from March, 2022

Pre - Market Analysis (31st March 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. It was a minor profit taking day yesterday Globally  U.S Markets have been rallying from past many Trading sessions. So , profit booking cannot be ruled out. Right now Dow futures are higher. SGX Nifty is up 40-50 points  Today is the final day of the Financial year plus all the contracts would expire today. Today we can expect some Volatility. From last few days , markets have been trading in a small range after gap up. Yesterday, Market tried to cross 17500 but failed and closed exactly near 17500. Expecting upper end of 17500 to be taken out in a couple of days. Today could be a ranging day with some Volatility. Inda VIX closed just above 20 yesterday. Expecting this to go down below 20 in the coming days. The good thing about yesterday's rally was the advance- decline ratio. Number of advanced were 1300 whereas declines were just 600. This broad based rally shows we have more room on the upside. 17500 short straddle has been added

Pre - Market Analysis (30th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Right now Dow futures & Asian markets are slightly lower. SGX Nifty is higher by 120-150 points. Indian Market is in a consolidation mode. 17000 to 17500 is the range and this consolidation is with huge Volatility. Today we may have a test of 17450-17500. I don't think we may surpass this level today itself. As 17200 short straddle has the highest open interest and it's at 300rs. These people will make profit between 16900-17500. There were reports claiming Putin and Zelensky have agreed to negotiate and talk. Also there were reports to end the ongoing War. U.S VIX crashed yet another 3% yesterday. This is below 19 now. India VIX closed near 21 yesterday. Expecting this to come even lower in coming days. Markets have been highly volatile since feb end. In March itself Nifty has made a swing of 3500+ points. From 17200 to 15700 and now 17500. This is some crazy swing and it causes positional trading very difficult. Markets con

Pre - Market Analysis (29th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Right now Dow futures & Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is higher by 80-90 points. Indian Market is in a consolidation mode. 17000 to 17500 is the range and this consolidation is with huge Volatility. Big one sided trend would develop only once this range gets taken out. Until then this would continue to be a ranging Market. Most important thing to note here is U.S VIX closed below 20 yesterday. Just 2 weeks back it was above 30. VIX crashing indicates stability in the Market. It's also an added advantage for option writers as premiums keep falling. In high VIX environment it becomes very difficult to manage Positions. Yesterday we had another test of 17000 but again there has been a fantastic recovery. As and when Nifty has been close to 17k Market has recovered quickly. India VIX closed at 22 yesterday. Expecting this to go lower as well in coming days. This is now a buy on dip Market. Market expecting some good news from Ru

Pre - Market Analysis (28th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. Right now Dow futures & Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is higher by 40-50 points. Indian Market is in a consolidation mode. 17000 to 17500 is the range and this consolidation is with huge Volatility. Big one sided trend would develop only once this range gets taken out. Until then this would continue to be a ranging Market. The War is worsening day by day with no signs of compromise / settlement yet. There have been many attempts of peace talks but all have been in vain. All this have kept the markets highly volatile. Commodity prices have been changing 3-4 times a day with moves. Previously , there used to be hardly 1-2 % change. Imagine the plight of business traders dealing in steel etc. PVR and Inox announce merger to form India's biggest multiplex chain. While this merger is looking beneficial for Inox shareholders as it's at a premium of 17%. The important point here is would they get the approval of competition comm

Pre - Market Analysis (25th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Right now Dow futures & Asian markets are flat. SGX Nifty is higher by 40-50 points. Indian Market is in a consolidation mode. 17000 to 17500 is the range and this consolidation is with huge Volatility. Big one sided trend would develop only once this range gets taken out. Until then this would continue to be a ranging Market. Last time , when the Crude prices crossed 125$ Nifty was at 15700. Now again crude prices are rising but markets are resilient. Only 1 major reason is that FII's have stopped selling as they used to do before. Since the day BJP has won elections FII's have sold very less compared to before. In some situations they have bought as well. This is what is keeping the markets resilient. Bank Nifty would be under serious pressure as long as crude prices keep rising. Inflation also is a big worry as commodity prices keep going higher. Another factor Is the global markets rally. U.S markets are also above 200 DM

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd March 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now Markets are flat. Yesterday India VIX shot up 8% without any negative news. Premiums on both the sides are quite higher. Calls and Puts both are commanding higher premium. This is because of India VIX rise. India VIX rising without any big negative is a matter of concern. FII's who bought aggressively before weekend on Thursday have sold aggressively yesterday. Yet again they might start their selling spree once again. This is what is going on since last 6 months. FII's keep selling , DII's keep buying. Market becoming highly volatile. 17500 , 17600 CE in weekly options has the highest open interest. IT index has supported Nifty all the way from lower levels. Now I feel they should stabilize and it's upto the financial stocks to give leadership. SGX Nifty is at 17200 now. 17300 is a strong resistance for Nifty. Once we close above 17300 will we see fresh buying. Crude oil again goes above 110$ & this is a neg

Pre - Market Analysis (21st March 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher on Thursday & Friday. Markets all over the World have witnessed heavy short covering over last 2 weeks  Right now Dow futures and Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is up 100 points  There's not much news over the weekend. War doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon. Markets ignoring the War and focusing on economy. Crude Oil slips below 100$/barrel  This is a very positive news for India. There are reports stating India is buying crude oil from Russia at a cheaper price. 25-30$/ barrel cheaper crude oil is being offered to India by Russia this positive sentiment has driven market higher. Fed rate hike also seems to be factored in and Market is looking ahead  Now the focus is on Corporate results and earnings. Next month we would start getting corporate results so those would be in focus. U.S VIX has dropped more than 10% in last 2 trading sessions. This indicates stability in the Market and we might not have huge gap ups or gap downs on

Pre - Market Analysis (17th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Yesterday he had the Fed event and it has gone as per expectations. Fed has increased rates by 25 basis points. Markets fell as soon as this news broke out  But recovered all of its losses from the lowest point of the day . Nasdaq was up 3.7% yesterday. Most importantly, CBOE VIX crashed 10%. This is the biggest fall in VIX in last 2 months. Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty indicating a gap up 300+ Points. This is another huge gap up after yesterday's one. Nifty in last 2 days has made a low of 16600 and now opening near 17300. This is a 700 point swing. There is no positive development from Russia-Ukraine front. No Positive outcome has emerged from the talks. Fed also indicated more rate hikes to come in coming months. I somehow feel SGX is over reacting today and we might get a dip close of 17100-17000 today. Expecting India VIX to also fall drastically today. Nifty might Trade between 17000-17300 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (16th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. During Market hours Dow futures were lower. Yesterday Nasdaq outperformed all the major indexes after so long Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is indicating a big gap up of 250 points. Yesterday exactly near 200 DMA we witnessed a severe selling. Nifty crashed 300 points from day high and Bank Nifty crashed 1000 points. This is a reversing Market and the reversals can be quite strong. India VIX shot up to 27 yesterday. Yesterday U.S VIX crashed 6% and closed below 30 which is a good sign. Russia - Ukraine talks don't seem to have any good outcome  No solution is being found yet on that front. War doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon. Today as well we could find some sort of selling pressure near 17k. One can sell this gap up with a stoploss of 17000 on Nifty. We have fed event today and I feel it's already factored in So it's likely to be a Non - Event. Crude Oil slips below 95$ / barrel. This is a very positive devel

Pre - Market Analysis (15th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. U.S Markets are down for 5 trading sessions out of last 6 sessions. Whereas Indian Markets are up for straight 5 sessions. Right now Dow futures and Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty is flat near yesterday closing. Yesterday was a fantastic rally in our markets. It was a stable Market and a slow and steady rally. This was due to major contribution by HDFC group stocks. Both HDFC and HDFC Bank led yesterday's rally. Mid caps were underperforming throughout the day  It was the large caps which kept Nifty in check. We have fed meeting on Thursday and that's why U.S markets are jittery. Because of higher Inflation , FED is expected to increase rates. This is leading to a fear in the markets. Yesterday india VIX kept inching higher. It was higher throughout the day. Put options were not falling proportionately whereas call options kept rising. Expecting markets to test 200 DMA today near 16950. Yesterday we did cross 20 DMA of 16850

Pre - Market Analysis (14th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. When our Markets were trading , Dow futures were down 100 points  Then news came that Putin was given clue of development in talks with Ukraine. This led to a huge short covering in global markets. SGX Nifty touched a high of 16850 and came all the way to 16480 as U.S Markets closed lower. Right now as dow figures are positive , SGX Nifty is flat  U.S VIX fell on Friday as well  Expecting India VIX to go below 25 today. As I had predicted , Market to be volatile between 16400 to 16800. Thursday and Friday have passed and we have been trading in this range. Big trend and momentum will develop only once we cross either of these levels. Until then , expecting ranging Market within this range  15750 to 16750 rally in 2 days can be termed as pullback as of now  I don't see it as a trend reversal yet. 16900 is the 200 DMA and only once we cross this level will the trend become positive. Until then the trend is still negative and this is a s

Pre - Market Analysis (11th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Asian markets are trading lower. Right now Dow futures & Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is down slighlty near 17500. Yesterday it was a very pleasant surprise. SGX Nifty was indicating 16600 but we opened at 16750. Last 2 days we are opening a but higher as per what SGX is suggesting. Election results have come as per market expectations. India VIX was down 12% at one point of time yesterday. Yesterday U.S Inflation data was out. Inflation data was as per expectation but core CPI data came higher. This triggered a huge sell off in first hour. Second hour the Market recovered half of its losses. More significantly , U.S VIX crashed 7% yesterday. Yesterday we have also passed through major event. So in next few days India VIX can also fall 4-8%. 16400 is a strong support and 16800 is a big resistance. Expecting Market to consolidate in this range for a while  200 DMA is at 16900 and I will become only after this is crossed  As of no

Pre - Market Analysis (10th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Asian markets were higher yesterday. Right now Dow futures & Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is up 300 points. Yesterday we had a fantastic rally all over the World. All the World Markets have rallied heavily. All the markets on an average are up 3-5%. We also had participated in the same yesterday. War fears are declining and a compromise arrangement is being made  This is cooling off all the commodity stocks  Plus pumping in fresh liquidity. Today we have expiry plus we have election results. Both these events will bring in huge Volatility into the Markets 16800 is a very important resistance. Until this gets taken off I will look to sell rallies. Everything is not good yet and Inflation and rate hike is still round the corner. These could be relief rallies and Market could be normal after the same. Today's action totally depends on the election verdict. VIX crashed 4% yesterday. If results come pro Market then expecting it

Pre - Market Analysis (9th March 2022)

U.S Markets were significantly higher yesterday at one point of time. But it closed lower. There's a saying , Amateurs open the Market and professionals close it. Yesterday this significance got realised. Right now Dow futures are slightly higher. SGX Nifty is down 70 points near 15920. Yesterday we had quite a volatile day but we closed at the highest point of the day. There was a fantastic short covering rally at the end. There's news floating around that Ukraine no longer insisting on NATO membership. Which is a good sign . This War is goes on more further will prove highly costly to all the interested parties. Commodity prices are shooting up like no tomorrow. This will shoot up inflation and govertments will ne forced to wage the War. Still if Ego comes between then it's difficult to say  DII's for the first time have been very tough fight to FII's and they have been buying in huge quantities as well. LIC IPO is round the corner. So there might be G

Pre - Market Analysis (8th March 2022)

U.S Markets crashed Yesterday. Right now Dow futures are slightly higher. SGX Nifty is at 15750. Asian markets are mixed. Yesterday we had exit poll results. Exit Poll results cannot be trusted with 100% accuracy. In the past as well many of the times exit Poll results have gone wrong. Majority exit Poll show that BJP is likely to win UP again. This is a positive news for stock market. In Bearish times markets don't react to good news but react to bad news  15800 is a very important support on Nifty. Last year Market made a consolidation of 3 Months near 15800-16000 and then broke out. So technically it becomes a very important support this time as well  If this breaks then 15500 -14800 open up. The falls will be equally fierce as the rallies. Market did rally one way and now falls will also be one way. Right now we have crude oil shock impact as well. Crude Oil has shot up to 130-140$ / barrel. In history I've observed , whenever crude oil stays higher Nifty always

Pre - Market Analysis (7th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Right now Dow futures are down by more than a percent. Asian Markets are all trading negative. SGX Nifty is at 15800. Russia - Ukraine fears are not easing yet. It's 12th day of the War and still we do not have any chance of compromise nor settling down. This uncertainty creates panic selling amongst the crowd. That's what is happening right now. I won't be surprised to see Nifty below 15k by March end. March would be the worst month for stock market. We have exit poll results as well. Positive exit poll results would make Market stable. Negative results would inch market lower  VIX above 30 is a big problem. VIX went above 30 on 2 occasions. Corona Virus and Lehmann brother collapse time . As soon as it went above 30 it shot up to 84-86. Markets made lower circuits and then bottomed out. Right now the possibility of it happening exists. If you are a skilled trader you can benefit through this Volatility. If not better to stay

Pre - Market Analysis (4th March 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now Dow futures are down. Asian Markets are all trading lower. Reason of such negative sentiment is due to the above . SGX Nifty is now at 16250. Many including me thought Russia Ukraine War was a one off event. Negotiations would happen and finally everything would come at peace. But right now that's not the case. This doesn't seem to end anytime soon. The more the attack goes on the more likely war fears are going to escalate. Even if this War subsides we still have many other issues. Inflation, Interest rate hike being the major of them. We are likely to open below 16400 as SGX Nifty is suggesting. The next immediate support is at 16200. This was the low we made on Feb 24th Expiry day. If 16200 is taken out then downside remains open. As I've been suggesting from lot of time that this is a sell on rally Market. Use rallies to short the Market. Bull Market is history. We havent entered into Bear terrian yet

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd March 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Right now Dow futures are slightly lower. SGX Nifty is almost flat. U.S Market is making wild swings on almost daily basis. Because of the same we are also having huge Volatility. Option buyers can enjoy from Friday to Tuesday. Option sellers come into the picture on Wednesday. This is how one needs to function in the current Market. Yesterday there were reports that second peace talks between Russia & Ukraine were to be held yesterday. We currently do not know how much they have been successful. Another major development was Fed rate hike in March. Because of this ongoing War , commodity prices are expected to rise and shoot up even further. This will push Inflation a lot higher than what has been expected. Yesterday the Fed chairman gave indications that they are on track to increase the rates in March. We have our own worries regarding a giant IPO which is underway. Government won't back off with the IPO and they will ensure t

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd March 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now Dow futures are slightly higher. SGX Nifty is down 200+ points. This Russia - Ukraine seems to be prolong. Until this goes on , Market won't settle. Uncertainty would creep Market towards downside. Reports have been suggesting that we are going to have 2nd peace talk today. This will be going on starting from today. Slowly slowly all the countries are joining Ukraine and Russia seems to be left alone. This is a repeat situation of a break up actually. During break up , Girls have 10 other more girls with her to calm her down to make her realise life has to go on , you deserve better etc. In the Case of boys , friends just say Girl has been saved­čĄ¬. Now exactly the Boy (Russia) is standing alone without any support and this could impact Putin's mind and he could go for some frenzy options. Second option is he obeys to other countries has peace talks and ends the matter. If there is nuclear war then Market will collapse at