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Showing posts from September, 2021

Pre - Market Analysis (30th September 2021)

U.S Markets were about 200 Points higher Yesterday in our Markets trading hours. By Evening this strength fizzled out and U.S Markets closed almost flat. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. SGX Nifty is Trading at 17670. Most Important thing , U.S VIX was down 3% Yesterday. Yesterday we opened more than 100 Points lower and recovered during the day. Last hour witnessed profit booking in our Markets. Yesterday I had given a Expiry range of 17600 to 17900 this played out very well for Yesterday. Today as well this range holds out till 2 pm. After 2 pm sometimes the expiry issues kicks in and markets move drastically. If the Global Markets are silent then the above range should play out for the day. September was a fairly Volatile month. Nifty shot up 1100 Points in 3 weeks then fell 500 Points and recovered. Only for falling another 400 Points in the last week. Yesterday top 6 stocks were from PSU Bank's. I don't remember when was the last time this happened. All priv

Pre - Market Analysis (29th September 2021)

U.S Markets were lower Yesterday. Asian Markets were down Yesterday. Right now Dow Futures and Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty is trading near 17650 now. Yesterday it was a highly volatile trading day. Nifty opened above 17900 was down 300 Points to 17600 and recovered 150 Points during the end. India VIX was higher Yesterday as well. Monthly expiry is always volatile. Futures , Options Contracts all expire at once and that causes indicisivess. The reason was such large fall at Intraday was due to Bond Yield rising. 10 Year bond yield was up by ₹1.5 yesterday. When Bond Yields rise people shift money from Equity to Debt Instruments. Plus crude oil also crossed 80$ / Barrell. Bond Yield issue was there even in the month of March 2021 and Markets reacted violently then. I don't expect the reaction to be much fierce for now. Markets won't react twice for the same stuff. Expecting Nifty to expire between 17600 to 17900. This should be the trading range for today and

Pre - Market Analysis (28th September 2021)

U.S Markets were higher Yesterday. Asian Markets were higher too. Right now Dow futures are flat but Asian Markets are higher. SGX Nifty is Trading near 17900. Friday and Monday (Yesterday) markets opened gap up and the same has been sold into. Yesterday there was a decent gap up but Intraday Nifty tested 17800 and recovered from there. 17800 PE & 18000 CE has the highest open interest in options. Yesterday 17900CE also added some open interest. For some reason if Market does cross 17900 to 18000 then 100-200 Points rally is likely on the cards. India VIX shot up 8% Yesterday and closed above 18. Premiums have been rising for far away Options due to the same. Auto Stocks have performed reasonably well Yesterday. IT Index was down 3% and kept Nifty under pressure. Sectoral Rotation is common in Bull Markets. As the Economy is opening up money is being shifted from IT (Work from home) companies to Hotels , Holidays , movie stocks etc. Expect Nifty to trade within 17800 to

Pre - Market Analysis (27th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat on Friday. When our Markets were trading on Friday, U.S futures were 150 Points lower and have recovered during the day. Asian Markets are also Higher. SGX Nifty is Trading near 18000. Looks like we may gap up above 18k today. Markets have been in a big Bull run since 7500 Nifty. There hasn't been a 10% correction on Nifty since 7500. Evergrande issue created some panic temporarily in the Markets. Markets have moved on as this has been settled. 18000 CE has the highest open interest in Options followed by 17800 PE. If we settle above 18k for some time then there is every possibility of a huge short covering rally. These traders when trying to cover there call options can propell the Markets even higher. Real Estate sector has been outperforming from quite some time. According to my Analysis, Capex cycle is back in real estate sector. I expect the Real Estate prices to go up in coming year. Real Estate and Stock Market are two best avenues of Inve

Pre - Market Analysis (24th September 2021)

U.S Markets were higher by more than 500 Points yesterday. Asian Markets and Dow Futures are flat now. SGX Nifty is Trading near 17850. Markets have been extremely Volatile for the past week. Nifty and Bank Nifty were moving almost a percent on a daily basis. Last Friday Nifty was at 17800 then it fell about 500 Points in 3 sessions and recovered entire losses in remaining 2 sessions. Nifty expired at almost the same level of Friday's high. Yesterday was a dream rally for the Bulls. Due to huge fall in the Market , there was aggressive call writing over the week. Yesterday all these call writers were trapped. Plus it was an expiry day so they had no other alternative apart from adjusting Positions. These aggressive call writers have propelled the Market even higher. Yesterday I expected some sort of resistance near 17800 as it was the previous high. Market did consolidate near those levels. But had crossed during the day. Maybe due to expiry issues we had such a fantast

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd September 2021)

U.S Markets were higher Yesterday. Asian Markets and Dow Futures are higher now. SGX Nifty is Trading near 17650. Yesterday the Markets were volatile due to Fed tapering statement to be released later during the day. FII's sold Yesterday. HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank were the top losers of Yesterday. Yesterday Fed announced "If Economy remains strong then they would start tapering". In U.S there is a saying "Never fight the Fed". Fed for the majority of the times has positive outlook towards stock markets. Yesterday also the similar thing has happened. Probably the FII's might have sold Yesterday due to this Uncertainty regarding FED. They might start buying spree from today. Yesterday U.S futures were higher when we were trading and it was giving an indication of the momentum to continue. Evergrande news is over now and markets won't react twice for the same news. There was a deep fear of 2008 recession being repeated due to Evergrande collapse.

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd September 2021)

U.S Markets were higher Yesterday. Asian Markets and Dow Futures are flat now. SGX Nifty is Trading near 17500. Yesterday our Markets recovered all the losses of Monday. Most Importantly , India VIX fell 6% Yesterday. Fear has been subsided now for the short term. U.S VIX fell 10% Yesterday. Yesterday in the first half our Markets were highly volatile. Nifty futures fell below 17400 more than 5-6 times during the day. Yesterday when our Markets were trading , Dow futures were higher by 200 Points. This subsided the fear in our Markets. Yesterday it was a highly Volatile session. For this Expiry each and every day has been highly volatile and uncertain. Expecting today to be a rangebound day. As this Expiry has already been volatile , Wednesday might not be that volatile as they used to be. Both FII's and DII's were net buyers yesterday. 17500 strike price has the highest open interest in weekly expiry. 17300 which was the yesterday's low is a good support for us

Pre - Market Analysis (21st September 2021)

U.S Markets at one point of time were down 850 Points. But has recovered 300 Points in last 30 minutes. Right now , Dow Futures are higher. SGX Nifty is Trading near 17450. Hong Kong Markets are at 52 week low. Dow is down 2000 Points from all time high. Yesterday it was a highly Volatile session. Nifty opened lower , recovered during the day and then came severe selling. Nifty closed towards the lowest point of the day. Last 30 minutes it was a panic selling in the Markets. What was more difficult was rising VIX. Yesterday everything was down except the VIX. VIX was firmly in Green throughout the day. This rising VIX created lots of problems for option sellers and Yesterday was a difficult day to handle. 17500 strike price has the highest open interest. Lots of straddles have been added here. 17500 Combined premium is about 230₹. Option writers expecting 17270 to 17730 range for the Nifty for this expiry. 17250 is a strong support for our Markets now and 17500 should act a

Pre - Market Analysis (20th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Right now , Dow Futures are Negative. SGX Nifty is near 17450. Global Markets are jittery due to Evergrande loan Default case. Evergrande company is China based real Estate Company and is one of the largest in the World. There has been news floating around that they have been defaulting on loan dues. Due to which the Global Markets are jittery. On Friday Nifty touched 17800 but soon we witnessed a heavy profit booking. This might be due to the Weekend as traders don't wish to carry Positions over the Weekend. Today's gap down might be lower than what SGX is indicating. SGX doesn't show the exact situation most of the times. In the past when such gap downs happened we have recovered during the day. Today as well I feel the same. 17450 is a strong support for Nifty and as long as we hold on to this level one should consider buy on dip. India VIX closed higher on Friday and it's likely to open higher today as well. We might n

Pre - Market Analysis (17th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Dow futures are almost flat. Asian markets are shining in Green. SGX Nifty is near 17700. It's the same Old Story today as well. Same old Story of a Classical Breakout and Trapped all the Short Sellers. Now there is no stopping for the Market. The new story is of Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty had the highest call writing at 37000 CE and soon as this got taken out , there was a fantastic rally. Nifty is already in a Bull run of its own and now if Bank Nifty joins , the party would be much bigger. Right now I see many People still Bearish and expecting Market to crash. We handle 100+ Accounts of various clients and whenever we go long 20% of them text us to buy put options as Markets would crash. We trade according to our plan and not according to views of Individuals. So they buy Put Options themselves and blow up their Accounts. The point I'm trying to make here is , as long as these bears exist in the Market we will keep going higher.

Pre - Market Analysis (16th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Yesterday when our Markets opened Dow Futures were lower. During the day it started recovering a bit. Right now Dow Futures are flat. SGX Nifty is near 17520. Yesterday was a fantastic rally for both Nifty and Bank Nifty. Nifty was struggling to cross 17450 for whole of the last week. Yesterday it has broken out of Consolidation. Now the short term support has been shifted to 17400. Yesterday I expected a High Volatile day within the range of 17250 to 17450. As Market opened the price action was quite Bullish and we broke all time high. That's when I started to sell put options aggressively. Also Nifty is up 10000 Points from last Year March low. From 7500 to 17500 is a fantastic rally. Do not short this Market , it will burn your hands. Wait for Dips and good buying zones to enter this Market. Rather than focusing on 50-100 Point short trade , you will be missing out of 300-500 points upmove. Better to follow the trend than being to

Pre - Market Analysis (15th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Right now Dow Futures are higher. SGX Nifty is near 17420. Yesterday the Markets opened above 17400 and also sustained for first half. In the Second half it was Volatile and we witnessed slight profit booking. Nifty closed below 17400 Yesterday. Today also I feel that this Gap up on a close to close basis might not hold on. 17250 to 17450 is the range for Nifty. Yesterday SGX Nifty made a high of 17450 as U.S Inflation data was according to the Expectations of Market. As soon as U.S Markets opened , there was a heavy profit booking. Today also I expect Nifty to be Volatile between 17250 to 17450. The Plan for today is to sell 17000 and 17100 Put Options of Next week Expiry. Provided if Nifty comes to 17300-17250. I won't be selling Call Options as I expect a Breakout on the higher side in due course. Premiums are too low now as VIX closed lower Yesterday. Right now it's not favourable to sell Options. As VIX inches higher and ther

Pre - Market Analysis (14th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Dow Jones for the first time closed in green after 5 Consecutive negative days. Right now Dow Futures are higher. SGX Nifty is near 17410. Yesterday as soon as Markets opened there was a big dip in the Market. Nifty touched 17250-17270 yesterday and from there recovered towards the end of the day. India VIX was up 5% as soon as we opened. Towards Closing , India VIX closed lower. 17400 CE has a huge open interest this weekly expiry. Today we are expected to open gap up. As per the Indication of SGX Nifty. If this gap up gets sustained , then we might witness a large short covering rally for this week. 17250 is a strong support on the lower side. Yesterday Markets were weak because of Reliance. Reliance fell 2% Yesterday due to postponement in Jio Mobile launch. Banks also witnessed large amounts of profit booking Yesterday. IT led the recovery Yesterday with Infosys touching 1700. Rangebound view continues until we break out of 17450 dec

Pre - Market Analysis (13th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Dow Jones fell for 5 Consecutive sessions now. Right now Dow Futures are higher. SGX Nifty is down by 20-30 Points near 17350. Last Expiry was a bit surprising for me. During trading hours on Thursday expiry Asian Markets and U.S Markets were bleeding. Both were down significantly but still Nifty managed to hold on to gains & close In Green. For whole of the last week Nifty was rangebound. 17250 to 17450 is the range. This is a narrow range and I expect it to continue for a couple of days. After this we could expect some range breakout or breakdown. I have a slightly bearish view as of now. But still I don't feel Nifty would break 17200 for this Expiry. We only have 4 trading sessions for this Expiry as Friday was Holiday. Plan is to trade the range unless there are clear signs of one sided move. Not much significant news over the weekend which could impact the Markets. Ranging Markets are difficult to trade as there are sharp tur

Pre - Market Analysis (9th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Dow Jones fell for 3 Consecutive sessions now. Asian Markets are mostly lower. SGX Nifty is down by 30-40 Points near 17330. Yesterday as Expected Markets were highly Volatile. First half was quiet but in second half there no package announced for Telecom Sector. Due to this Nifty fell 100 Points Intraday to 17250 but ultimately recovered towards the end of the day. 17200 to 17500 range stayed intact and trading near boundaries worked well. Today im Expecting Volatility to continue. Global Markets are weak but our overall trend is up. We are in for a long weekend as there is a local holiday tomorrow. 3 days long weekend traders won't like to carry Positions home. Both side moves would be there today and not a one sided move. In this kind of Market it's better to focus on Trading the range. Yesterday's range was 17250 to 17400 broadly. Expecting today's range between 17230 to 17450. If Nifty gaps down towards 17280-17250 I

Pre - Market Analysis (8th September 2021)

U.S Markets were slightly higher yesterday. Right now U.S Futures are higher. Asian Markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is up 30-40 Points at 17420. A word that can be used to best describe Yesterday's market was "Volatile". Yesterday was a highly Volatile Market after many days. Nifty fell 100 Points as soon as Market opened to 17300 recovered 150 Points and was near 17450 again fell 80-100 Points to close at 17350. While all this was Happening , India VIX did not go higher. India VIX was lower throughout the day. This Volatility indicates we might have made a temporary top at 17500 for this Expiry. This Expiry range comes out between 17200 to 17500. Wednesdays are mostly Volatile days for the week but such Volatility was witnessed Yesterday. Wonder what will happen today. I would be trading at Extremes today. When Market dips and is near 17250-17300 I would be selling Put Options with a stoploss of 17200. Near 17450-17500 would like to sell call options above 17500

Pre - Market Analysis (7th September 2021)

U.S Markets were closed Yesterday. There was a labour day Holiday Yesterday for U.S Markets hence not much Global cues. Asian Markets are mixed. Hang Seng is up while China is down Slightly. Dow Futures are slightly higher. SGX Nifty is Trading at 17420. Yesterday was a very flat day. Frontline indices consolidated throughout the day. The significant event was FII's have sold Yesterday. This came after 2-3 weeks of continue buying. This might be due to holiday in U.S hence they sold. Whether it's a trend reversal or not we have to see today. IT Stocks are on another planet in our Market. There has been a Non - Stop rally in IT Stocks. Wipro was the outperformer Yesterday. Bank Nifty continues to underperform. 17200 is a strong support for our Market in short term. Any sort of dip should be bought into and can be used to sell Put Options. Reliance after crossing it's all time is showing momentum. Short term target for Reliance opens up to 2600-2700 and this might

Pre - Market Analysis (6th September 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Asian Markets are higher currently. Dow Futures are slightly down. SGX Nifty is Trading at 17380. SGX Nifty hit 17400 on Friday. I had mentioned on Friday to focus on Nifty and not Bank Nifty , Purely because of IT stocks outperformance. Reliance news came out of nowhere and it closed 4% higher. This move according to me shouldn't be taken lightly. Reliance from 2380 went to 1880 and now it's back again at all time highs. Reliance has the highest weightage in Nifty and if Reliance goes 10-15% higher from here. 18000 targets on Nifty open up. Bank Nifty on the other hand continues to underperform. Nifty by itself with the help of IT and Reliance is gaining momentum. Bank Nifty will participate in bits and pieces but not in the same order as Nifty. 17500 targets on Nifty are in sight now. 17200-17150 are strong support zones for Nifty. We are trading at all time highs so there are no resistances for the Market. Hence there is non s

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd September 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are higher. Dow Futures are Flat. SGX Nifty is Trading at 17300. Yesterday at opening we had a slight gap down and it was immediately bought into. Any sort of dip the Bulls are latching onto it. Specially for Nifty , Previously Nifty finance used to have 35% weightage and IT near about 17%. Now the Nifty composition has changed. Nifty IT because of the Mammoth rally in last year has now become equal to Nifty finance. Both Nifty IT and Finance have 27% equal weightage. IT Stocks are in a tremendous Bull run. This last happened in 1999 before Dot com bubble. I do not see IT Stocks stopping here. The Momentum will continue further and has lots of steam left. Now the focus should be on Nifty than Bank Nifty. As Nifty IT has been outperforming Nifty is gaining momentum. Bank Nifty is underperforming and will continue to underperform Nifty in long term. So focus should be on outperforming index rather than thinking the Underperfo

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd September 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. Asian Markets are lower currently. Dow Futures are mildly lower. SGX Nifty is Trading at 17100. Yesterday the frontline indices closed lower after continued 3 trading days of upswing. This was on the cards & expected. After such a fanstastic rally , Market participants would prefer to book profits. Yesterday was just a normal profit booking day. Infact Yesterday's profit booking is very good for the Bull Market in long term. Markets cannot keep going up without pause. Intermittent pause and profit booking keeps it healthy for longer term. Auto Companies have been posting disappinting numbers. Hero Moto Corp reported 22% sales decline in two wheeler segments. GDP number reported was at par with Expectations. There were no surpirses nor disappointments on that front. Yesterday I mentioned the Expiry range between 17000-17250 & that worked very well for Yesterday. Continue with the similar view even for today. Expecting the Consol

Pre - Market Analysis (1st September 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. Asian Markets are higher now. Dow Futures are higher. SGX Nifty is Trading near 17150. Yesterday Nifty broke out of 17k. From past many Months I've been observing that Market makes a big move in first two weeks. Last few weeks there's Consolidation. This Month is no different. September expiry is a long expiry of 5 weeks. In the first week itself Nifty has witnessed almost 500 points rally. Bank Nifty did not participate in Yesterday's rally. India VIX was up 10% Yesterday even when Markets were roaring higher. This proves the fact that VIX doesn't rise only in falling Market. Even in rising Market , if Market goes up too fast in too less time then Call writers will be trapped. They would then look for cover to cut losses. This takes Market even higher. 17000 CE had the highest Open interest in weekly expiry. As soon as we breached 17k we witnessed a massive short covering. Today I expect a Consolidation on Nifty with sligh