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Showing posts from December, 2022

Pre - Market Analysis (30th December 2022)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. 2. Asian markets are mostly higher. 3. Dow futures are slightly lower right now. 4. SGX Nifty is up 40- 50 Points. 5. Yesterday there was a huge short coveralls rally in the markets  6. Nifty for all towards the first half was trading near 18k. 7. It broke 18k for a brief moment as well. 8. In the second half Markets started to recover. 9. Yesterday markets closed at the highest point of the day. 10. This is a good sign for the Bulls. 11. December month has not been that Bullish and optimistic. 12. In the past , December has always been a lack Lustre month. 13. As due to Christmas etc FII's go on holiday and there are very less volumes. 14. This December has been quite volatile. 15. Yesterday we closed exactly near 18200. 16. 18200 is the short term resistance now. 17. If we cross and gain strength above 18200 , then 18400 opens up. 18. Range would shift to 18200 to 18400. 19. January should start with a Bullish bias. 20. Many lar

Pre - Market Analysis (29th December 2022)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Asian markets are mostly lower. 3. Dow futures are slightly lower right now. 4. SGX Nifty is down 70-80 Points. 5. The stock making headlines of daily basis is Tesla. 6. After Acquiring Twitter , Tesla is down 70%. 7. Tesla has got a Hugh weightage in Nasdaq. 8. So this stock is dragging the index lower. 9. We don't know when the bottom would be made in such stocks. 10. It's better not to chase falling knives unless we have a clarity. 11. Today we may open near 18050 or so as per SGX Indication. 12. If we open close to those levels , it's a good buying opportunity.  13. 18000 PE has the highest open interest for today's expiry. 14. One can keep a stoploss of 17950 and go long near 18000. 15. I expect a rangebound move today between 18000 to 18200. 16. If we break any of these levels then we would have 70-100 points move very quickly. 17. This is less likely to happen unless Dow futures goes much lower or much higher

Pre - Market Analysis (28th December 2022)

1. U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. 2. Asian markets are mostly lower. 3. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. 4. SGX Nifty is down 50-70 Points. 5. Yesterday was a high volatile day. 6. Recently , FIN nifty has also been an index where trading volumes have been rising. 7. Tuesdays are the days of FIN Nifty expiry. 8. This adds up to the Volatility.  9. Yesterday as well markets closed higher. 10. It was the second consecutive day of markets closing higher. 11. 18200 CE has the highest open interest.  12. This would be a resistance for coming two trading sessions. 13. High open interest was added at 18000 PE Yesterday. 14. So we have a lower level to work with as well. 15. 18000 to 18200 is the range for nifty. 16. Bigger move should come only after any of the level gets taken out. 17. Nifty has been outperforming Bank Nifty during the last couple of days. 18. Profit booking has started in Bank Nifty after the huge outperformance.  19. Nifty might trade between 1800

Pre - Market Analysis (27th December 2022)

1. U.S Markets were closed yesterday. 2. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are higher. 4. SGX Nifty is up 80-90 Points. 5. Yesterday there was a rally in the markets. 6. Is this a relief rally or a trend reversal we will come to know today. 7. 18000 short straddle the highest open interest in monthly options. 8. This Short Straddle is trading at 200rs. 9. So the range for Nifty is 17800 to 18200. 10. Also there has been huge put writing at 17800. 11. Huge Call writing at 18200 is also taking place. 12. Option sellers are predicting a range of 17800 to 18200. 13. Yesterday the DII's have bought for more than 3000 crores. 14. In Monthly expiry , generally big moves take place in the markets. 15. I expect this range to be taken out either upside or downside. 16. I see all the media writing and saying that we fell due to China Covid etc. 17. If we fell due to China Covid issue why didn't the other markets fell. 18. We fell because we were outperformin

Pre - Market Analysis (26th December 2022)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday.  2. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4.SGX Nifty is up 80-90 Points. 5.Friday there was yet again a bloodbath in the markets. 6.As soon as Nifty broke 18k there was a huge sell off. 7. I had mentioned that if 18k gets taken out then we would be heading towards 17800. 8.Nifty closed exactly near 17800. 9. I did not expect 17800 to come on Friday itself. 10.Such was the intense sell off that Nifty went close to 17800 the same day. 11.This sell off is majorly due to China Covid news. 12.There have been reports that China will stop giving covid updates . 13. This would help people a lot as the panic caused due to the same would be lower. 14.17800 to 18000 is the range for nifty now. 15. If we break 17800 then we must prepare for 17500. 16.Bullish only above 18k. 17. Expect a consolidation within this range. 18.Nifty might trade between 17750 to 18050 today. 19.stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd December 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  Asian markets are mostly lower. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. SGX Nifty is down 100-120 Points. Market texture has turned to Highly bearish now. Any gap up or short covering rally has been sold into aggressively. India VIX a week ago was at 13 & yesterday it went above 16. This indicates that the Volatility has also been rising. As the Volatility rises , so does the option premiums. Last expiry week is generally highly Volatile & the Gamma effect is also at its peak. This is due to many factors such as roll overs , expiration of all the contracts etc. Yesterday after market hours when I checked the data came another shock. FII's & DII's both were net buyers yesterday.  They have bought yesterday for combined 2000 crore plus. In spite of positive buy data markets closed lower yesterday.  18000 PE has the highest open interest in monthly options. Today , 18000 is likely to be tested. If we break 18000 then

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd December 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  Asian markets are mostly higher. Dow futures are higher right now. SGX Nifty is higher by 100-120 Points. Yesterday was a highly Volatile trading day. It wasn't just volatile it was an unexpected trading move. Yesterday there were news that China has enduced more lockdowns due to Covid 19 cases. There have been a surge in Covid 19 cases in China. Also there have been few cases of Omicron variant detected in India. Because of this news markets crashed. The crash was so severe that Nifty fell 300 points from day high. Bank Nifty more than 1000 points. India VIX at one point of time was up 15%. My view is that Covid is history. We have fought with it,  dealt with it and we have moved on long ago. It won't come back nor it will have an impact. Mini crash like yesterday offer a good buying opportunity.  As people forget logic during these times and take decisions based on emotions. Whenever emotions are given importance than logic ,

Pre - Market Analysis (21st December 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  Asian markets are mostly higher. Dow futures are higher right now. SGX Nifty is higher by 70-80 Points. Yesterday was a highly Volatile trading day. It wasn't just volatile it was an unexpected trading move Yesterday the Bank of Japan announced that it would be tweaking its policy. There wasn't any change announced and it was just announced of a change in the policy. As soon as this got announced markets began to crash. Japanese index Nikkei fell 1000 points in no time. Dow futures turned more than a percent negative. Our market also started to fall in the morning. I took the opportunity and sold put options 18k and below for monthly series. Nifty found support near 18200 and bank nifty took support near 43k. Both quite important support levels were held yesterday.  I feel yesterday's low should be the bottom for December expiry. Both for nifty and bank nifty. Yesterday Both FII's & DII' s were net buyers. Any so

Pre - Market Analysis (20th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Asian markets are mostly lower. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. SGX Nifty is down 30-40 Points. Yesterday we had a sort of short covering rally in our Markets. Markets found support near 18200 and recovered sharp. Now the range for nifty is 18200 to 18500. Nifty might consolidate in this range for a while. November expiry was at 18500 for nifty. December month we first moved towards 18900. Then fell back to 18350. Moved towards 18700 again Fell all the way to 18200. Now again close to 18500. On a close to close basis , Markets having gone anywhere. Expect December expiry somewhere close to November expiry. It should be plus or minus a percent from 18500. Bank Nifty on the other hand has been scaling fresh heights. Nifty is finding momentum because of Bank Nifty. Nifty might trade between 18300 to 1855p today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (19th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Asian markets are mostly lower. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. It was a Quadruple witching day in U.S This is the day where the Stock futures , Index futures , Option Contracts etc expire on the same day. This happens for 4 times in an Year. On this day markets are extremely volatile. Markets have now turned Bearish. There has been some news going on regarding Russia - Ukraine war as well. Missile explosions have aggrevated as well. Insiders knew about this news on Thursday itself. They started to sell. We came to know about this on Friday afternoon. Markets have closed at the lowest point of the day on Friday. Also it was the lowest point of December month. This indicates the trend has turned bearish. 18200 is the immediate support for now. Once 18200 is taken out the next support is at 18000 only. Nifty might trade between 18120 to 18420 today. A bigger range for the day as Markets have turned Volatile. stockmarketadvisory.i

Pre - Market Analysis (16th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  Asian markets are mostly lower. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. SGX Nifty is down 50 Points. Yesterday it was a surprise. As soon as Markets opened it started to go lower. Markets stabilized in between but ultimately it kept moving lower. Nifty after coming close to 18500 spent lots of time near that zone. It tried to recover and settle. Global markets turned negative meanwhile. Dow futures kept crashing down. Also it was expiry so due to expiry related issues things aggrevate. 18500 PE had the highest open interest and as soon as this was taken out there was a one way fall. Generally the reaction of the event is given on the day of the event by the markets. Here it's not the case. U.S Markets have reacted to the Fed event yesterday.  Still I feel yesterday it was some over reaction by our Markets. We should settle down and start to go higher. India VIX moved higher by 7% yesterday.  Nifty might trade between 18300 to 1860

Pre - Market Analysis (15th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  Asian markets are mostly mixed. Dow futures are flat right now. SGX Nifty is down 50-70 Points. Yesterday it was a volatile trading session in U.S Market. It was the Fed policy day. Fed as expected didn't give any surprises.  It was expected that they would raise interest rates by 50 basis points. Fed did exactly the same. They increased rates by 50 basis points. Commentary relating to Inflation was also most important. This Commentary gives an idea as to what Fed thinks about the Economy.  What all steps they might consider taking in future etc. FED according to me didn't sound much Hawkish relating to Inflation.  The Commentary was on a slightly Dowish tone. Markets went all over the places. Finally settling lower. So all the events have been completed now. There are no planned events that remain for December series. India VIX is now at 52 week low. It has inched below 13. Nifty might trade between 18500 to 18800 today. stockma

Pre - Market Analysis (14th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  Asian markets are mostly higher. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. SGX Nifty is up 100 Points. Yesterday it was a volatile trading session in U.S Market. Yesterday was the most important Inflation numbers to be announced in U.S Expected Inflation was 7.3% but it actually came at 7.1%. As Inflation numbers came at lower than expectation this triggered a huge rally. Dow was up 800 Points at one point of time. Nasdaq was up 4%. During the day all these indices turned negative. Just to close higher slightly. It was a intense volatile trading day yesterday. Maybe market participants are waiting for Fed comments today This is why they must have been cautious yesterday.  Today all the eyes would be on Fed decision.  Bank Nifty is heading towards 45k. Banking stocks are leading the rally. Nifty might trade between 18580 to 18820 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (13th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  Asian markets are mostly mixed. Dow futures are slightly lower right now. SGX Nifty is up 30-40 Points. Yesterday it was a volatile trading session.  As soon as Markets opened , there was a heavy sell off. Nifty even broke 18400. After getting close to 18350 , markets recovered. Yesterday the resistance was at around 18500. Once 18500 Is crossed and we get a closing above 18500 , the range would once again shift from 18500 to 19000. Yesterday our IIP & Inflation data were announced. IIP reduced by 4% which is not a good sign. Inflation also came in at below 6%. It's a mixed bag kind of news. One is Positive and the other one is Negative.  Today we have the U.S Inflation numbers. Inflation in U.S is also expected to cool off. Tomorrow would be the Fed meet. Fed comments relating to Inflation etc should also be watched closely. Yesterday,  Nifty went everywhere but closed at the same level as of Friday. Nifty might trade between 1

Pre - Market Analysis (12th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday.  Asian markets are mostly lower. Dow futures are slightly lower right now. SGX Nifty is down 70 points. Friday we had a massive sell off in the markets. Advance Decline ratio was also very bearish. Number of stocks falling were almost 4X for number of stocks rising. This isn't a good sign at all. As i mentioned before that Nifty is likely to test its 20 DMA. 20 DMA is around 18400 for nifty. On Friday,  this level got tested and then nifty recovered swiftly. There was a swift short covering rally during the end of the day. Expecting 18400 to be a good support for now. If this breaks then 18200 opens up. This week is likely to be highly Volatile as well. We have many data points coming up. Today we have India CPI data. Tomorrow U.S CPI Inflation data. Wednesday we have fed meet. So all these events will make markets volatile  Nifty might trade between 18380 to 18600 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (8th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed slightly lower yesterday.  Asian markets are mixed. Dow futures are slightly lower right now. SGX Nifty is trading flat. Yesterday it was all about RBI expiry. It was expected that RBI would raise repo rate by 35 basis points. Exactly the same thing happened. RBI as expected raised repo rate by 35 basis points. Market went through a short covering rally as soon as this was announced.  Nifty recovered 60-80 Points. Later on when RBI commentary began it was mostly on the Hawkish side. Once 18600 got broken market inched lower. Last 30 minutes yesterday was highly Volatile. Nifty had a short covering rally and crossed 18600 only crashing 80 points from there. So now the trend has reversed. 18500 is the next support now. 20 DMA is around 18440. As I said few days ago , buying near 20 DMA is advisable for trend followers. Now , market is giving a nice entry level. From 18900 to 18550 , Nifty reversed quick and sharp. Nifty might trade between 18450 to 18700 to

Pre - Market Analysis (7th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  Asian markets are mostly lower. Dow futures are slightly higher right now. SGX Nifty is trading flat. Yesterday was a flat session Nifty was trading close to 18600 for most of the day. It was almost a consolidation throughout the day. Throughout the day nifty was trading in just 50 point range. Nifty has now found multiple supports near 18600 18600 should be a good support for now. There are many events and also RBI policy in store. So due to Volatility markets might hunt stoploss. Traders need to keep in mind the Volatility and Gamma effect. It's advised to go in with low volumes at first. Not to go with heavy volumes at first. 18600 to 18900 is the range for now. Markets might consolidate within this range  Bigger trade would emerge only if either of these levels gets taken out. Nifty might trade between 18550 to 18800 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (6th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  Asian markets are mixed right now. SGX Nifty is down 30-40 points at the time of writing blog. Right now , dow futures are higher. Yesterday we had the exit poll results after market hours. Exit polls have predicted a clean sweep for BJP. Market might react to the exit poll results today. Tomorrow we have the RBI policy. RBI is expected to raise the rates by 35 basis points. RBI commentary should be heard with due attention. I'm not a politically inclined person and I have zero interest in politics. As my money is at stake right now , I have no option apart from tracking politics. FII's sold for 1176 crores yesterday whereas DII's bought for more than 2300 crores.  Yesterday as soon as market opened there was a heavy profit booking. Nifty did test the previous all time high of 18600. It was within a 100 point range throughout.  This consolidation was with huge Volatility. India VIX at one point of time also inched above 14 ye

Pre - Market Analysis (5th December 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. Asian markets are mostly higher. Right now , dow futures are lower. SGX Nifty is up 40-50 Points. Friday was the day of profit booking. I did say that 18900 could be the short term top. As of now it feels so. 18900 would be difficult to cross  There was huge open interest added at 18800 & 18900 CE. 18500 should be a good support on the downside. 20 DMA comes around 18440 on Nifty. This week is full of events. RBI policy , Gujarat Elections etc. Due to any of these events if we get a dip closer to 20 DMA that's an excellent buying opportunity.  Trend is up and this is just a pause in the trend. Volatility Due to the events provide us a good opportunity to enter the trend at much lower levels. Expecting nifty range to be between 18400 to 18900 for this week. Look for dips to enter into. Do not build longs on rallies. Nifty might trade between 18550 to 18800 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd December 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday. Asian markets were mixed yesterday.  Right now , dow futures are lower. Asian markets are also lower right now. SGX Nifty is down 40-50 Points. Yesterday the star of the show was IT index. IT index was higher more than 2% yesterday.  Now the money is shifting from Banking stocks to IT stocks. All this while it was exactly the opposite. I sense that markets have run up too fast too quick. A minor correction / profit booking would be healthy Markets moving in a straight line is always unhealthy. As and when the correction comes it could be destructive. Minor profit booking helps the market texture going forward. India VIX is significantly below 14 now. Yesterday there was a bit higher Volatility than normal days. Markets top out or bottom out with Volatility.  18900 should be difficult to cross in the short term. Nifty might trade between 18700 to 18900 today. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (1st December 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty is higher 80-100 points. Markets are now firing on all cylinders. Yesterday last 30 minutes nifty scaled higher by 100 points. I mentioned yesterday that big move would come if 18700 is taken out. Once 18700 got breached , there was a huge rally. Markets looking excessively bullish right now. We do not know where will this momentum stop. Until then we just have to ride the trend. Keep trailing the stoploss and keep riding the trend. That's the way to go from here We have weekly expiry today and expirys generally can be volatile. Particularly after 2 pm Volatility is likely to increase. So it's better to close positions by 2 pm. The only worry I have is Gujarat state elections. Markets are going into the elections with huge optimism. Thats the only worry as of now as any disappointment could cause a big crash. Nifty might trade between 18600 to 18900 today. stockmarketadvisory.in