Skip to main content


Showing posts from September, 2020

Pre - Market Analysis (30th September 2020)

US markets closed Negative Yesterday. Asian Markets are Trading Flat. Right now, as Presidential Candidates heated debate is going on, US futures are Trading higher. From Past 2 Months markets have been all over the place but the mean was near 11200 on Nifty. Bank Nifty was one of the major Volatile Indice. Now Markets will be closely keeping an eye on U.S Presidential Elections. This is likely to be the next biggest event for the Markets. FII's have sold more than 1000 crores Yesterday. DII's supported the Markets in October expiry beginning. But FII's now have been selling relentlessly. One has to be cautious now on the long side. Liquidity seems to be curbing in the Primary market due to many IPO's being launched. IPO's have been oversubscribing more than 50X each on average so majority funds are blocked there. India VIX is slowly inching higher. I will look to build short Positions near 11300-11350 on Nifty (Positional) Possibilities that Reliance ma

Pre - Market Analysis (29th September 2020)

US markets were up 2% . Asian markets are Flat SGX Nifty is also flat. October series has started on a great note for the Bulls. Bank Nifty up more than 1200 Points and Nifty up more than 400. There was some excessive shorting on the last Expiry and that has been covered now which we call as Short covering and that's the reason of the rally. Market will repeatedly question you that are we in a Bull Market? When Corrections are being witnessed. And After a big correction it will get back to its normal ways of a Bull Market rally. RBI Policy is also Postoponed. Maybe RBI is waiting for Supreme Court Verdict wrt. Interest on Interest case going on. After the Court Verdict RBI may come up with their decision soon. Interestingly , Supreme Court Verdict has also been Postponed. Indian Judiciary , you know:) FII's have stopped selling upto now for this Expiry and DII's have started buying. This is the main reason of the short covering rally. I'm not interested to p

Pre - Market Analysis (25th September 2020)

U.S Futures were down more than 2% Yesterday when Indian Markets were active. That was the reason of such a big fall Yesterday. 11000 was the place of support and that was taken away. Bank Nifty below 21k. Now U.S Futures are slightly positive so SGX Nifty has recovered from 10800 to 10900. Month end expiry and all longs trapped. Everything contributed to a huge fall in the Markets. FII's have been selling relentlessly for the past week. As I previously mentioned , September will belong to the bears and the same happened. Coming to October series. One thing is for sure , unless Nifty crosses 11200 I won't be taking long Positions. I will be Bullish only when major resistance areas gets taken out and we sustain. Because when Market falls it falls with high steam and when it goes up the speed is of tortoise. This is a sell on Rallies Market now. Sell on Rallies until you get a clear Breakout. Many countries Considering to Lockdown again. Corona Virus vaccine getting p

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd September 2020)

US markets stabilised Yesterday. Closed in Green , though not a big rally but stabilisation is a good outcome. Asian Markets are mostly flat. SGX Nifty is also flat. Markets this week and highly Volatile. Within seconds , the Positions have been changing. Trading in this Market without a Pre determined plan and Stoploss can kill a Trader. So better to follow these rules while Trading or stay away from Trading in such heavy Volatility. 11200 was a major support for Nifty and it got taken out Yesterday. Infact we closed below 11200 on Nifty Yesterday. 21000 is a major support for Bank Nifty & that was also breached Yesterday which is not a good sign. We are clearly on a sell on rally market now. Use every Pullback / rally to sell into this rally. I have been selling Call options of Banking stocks as I'm bearish about Bank Nifty. Markets have been irrational post March but sooner or later they have to come in line in Reality. That's what is happening currently. Thi

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd September 2020)

U.S Markets were down 2% Yesterday. But now there seems to be a recovery and Asian Markets are Trading Positive. SGX Nifty is up about 50-60 Points now. Yesterday as Europe Markets opened, the news came that US 2 Trillion$ suspicious money handled by Banks. This Triggered a big sell off in Banking stocks all over the World. To just let you know the magnitude of this news , Indian Economy is 2 Trillion$ & the Amount of Scam figure was Equal to Indian Economy figure. U.S is considering another Lockdown to control the Corona Virus spread. Indian Cases are now more than a lakh per day. Indian Govt doesn't seem to be worried about it nor does Indian Media. Both are busy looking after "Bollywood". Bank Nifty was already very weak. 22000 was the support area of Bank Nifty and it broke decisively so more selling pressure witnessed. Markets will be Irrational and choppy. 11200 is a strong support on Nifty and if that's taken out we can witness further crash. Fi

Pre - Market Analysis (21st September 2020)

US markets closed Negative on Friday. Asian Markets are mostly flat today. SGX Nifty is down 10 Points. Fridays are becoming highly Volatile now. I'm observing this from quite few weeks now. Bank Nifty collapsed more than 600 Points on Friday in less than 30 Minutes. I was Relaxing and preparing for the weekend😃 but this fall caught the attention. After due research there was a news found. There were some tensions at India Pakistan border due to which there was a fall in Major indices. Maybe due to this news there was a fall. But by the end of the day things stabilised a bit on Nifty while Bank Nifty continues to lag. IT Stocks and Reliance look good and are Supporting Nifty. Option sellers need to be very careful while reading in Monthly expiry contracts. Premiums are too low and the Vega (Volatility) effect is quite high. Better to sell Stock options or trade in next Month options. Markets make a 200-300 Point move on Monthly Expiries. Will look to play that move aft

Pre - Market Analysis (18th September 2020)

US markets closed lower Yesterday. Asian Matkets are Flat with a Negative Bias. SGX Nifty is very Flat. Markets have been Highly Volatile for quite some time now. Yesterday Expiry was also the same. Directionless markets with high Volatility. Plus SEBI rules creating panic & volume changes in the Exchange. Traders should be very Cautious while dealing with such type of markets. Hedging is a must. The simple Strategy to Trade in such markets is to buy gap downs and sell gap downs. Buy Drawdowns and sell rallies. Because I do not expect the Markets to go very high from here nor expect it to crash a lot. Bank Nifty is still very weak and has not witnessed any recovery. It still seems to be a laggard. FIIs and DIIs both were net sellers in Cash market yesterday. DIIs have sold for more than 1000 crores. Now this is a big Number. Monthly Expiries can be even more Volatile & then some trending move might be witnessed by Tuesday Afternoon. Nobody knows what will happen , l

Pre - Market Analysis (17th September 2020)

US markets ended Flat Yesterday. Asian Markets are Trading Negative. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11510 & down by 100 Points. Just a Month to go for the U.S Presidential Election. This will be a major event for the Markets and will decide the Future course of Action. Currently we are Consolidating with a positive bias. U.S Fed made an Important Announcement Yesterday that there would be low interest rates for next 3 Years. This is a positive thing for Equity markets as low interest rates increase Liquidity in the Markets and fusion additional cash. IT Stocks and Reliance are Trading at fresh all time highs. Pulling up Nifty higher. Bank Nifty is still very very weak. Was up only 0.5% Yesterday while Nifty was up more than a Percent. Clearly Money is not chasing the Financial Stocks as of now. Markets can continue to be Irrational more than what you can imagine. Today is weekly expiry so Expecting some Volatility going ahead. Bank Nifty in itself will be highly Volatile tod

Pre - Market Analysis (16th September 2020)

US markets closed Positive Yesterday. So Asian markets are Flat. SGX Nifty is down 10 points. Yesterday in second half we witnessed a heavy short covering in Bank Nifty. 22000 is the major support level for Bank Nifty and it bounced back exactly from that zone. Bank Nifty is highly Unperforming Nifty still. A 800-1000 Point recovery here cannot be ruled out. Day before Yesterday , IT stocks ruled the market. Yesterday Pharma and Reliance. Reliance is Unstoppable and will continue to hold Nifty. So being bearish on Nifty wouldn't work as the saviour Reliance won't let it drown. So currently I'm Bullish on the Market. Every dip will witness buying Opportunity. DII's were net sellers but FII's net buyers. Market are Likely to consolidate with Positive Bias. Bank Nifty should recover most of its losses. Nifty might Trade between 11420-11600 today.

Pre - Market Report (15th September 2020)

US markets closed 1.5% higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are Mixed. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11470 so we can almost expect a flat opening. Yesterday our Markets opened above the Resistance level of 11500 with a big Gap up. First half the Markets were flat but we Witnessed big selling pressure in second half. This was a Total Surprise. Bank Nifty fell by more than 400 Points in about half an hour & Nifty by 100 Points. Maybe S&P fitch negative outlook on the Economy was the reason for this sell off. But later durring the day we recovered 50% of the losses as well. So it was a high Volatile day yesterday. India VIX from Negative 1% was up 3% at one point of time. From last 1 Month these sudden Intraday collapses have been happening without any major reason. The star of the show Yesterday were IT Stocks. IT index was up 5% yesterday. All the IT stocks are on a league of their own. Previously I had mentioned that there are 2 factors for this Bull Market. One is IT stocks

Pre - Market Analysis (14th September 2020)

US markets closed Mixed on Friday. But Asian are Trading Positive. SGX Nifty is up 50 points and trading near 11500. SEBI Regulations have forced Mutual Funds to allocate Sufficient Percentages equally to Midcaps and Small Caps stocks. Large Cap funds need to funds 25% in Mid and Small Caps. The time given to shift according to this method is by 1st January 2021. Will there be a sell off in large cap stocks due to this Regulation? Today we need to watch out the same. FIIs continue to buy in Cash Market. DIIs continue to sell. They have sold for more than Rs 700 crores. This Market is trading nowhere since last Month. Going up , going down but coming back to its mean level of 11500. But Markets have been Very Volatile within this period. The next big event for the Market is U.S Presidential Election. It's impact will be started to seen within a Month. Guess that Markets are waiting for clarity to unfold. Reliance won't let Nifty fall a lot. So Nifty trend is Bullish.

Pre - Market Analysis (10th September 2020)

US markets closed higher yesterday. Asian markets are flat. U.S futures in red now so SGX Nifty is almost flat Yesterday night it was higher. SGX Nifty is down slightly. So markets are expected to open flat. Option writers like Markets to open flat specially on Expiry days. Global markets are highly Volatile and are giving big Moves on both sides. Stocks like SBI, Axis Bank fell nearly 20%. SBI once again below Rs 200. Yesterday afternoon news came that Silver lake is investing in reliance retail. Reliance bounced back from lows and recovered the Market. Expecting a flat to negative expiry today  Today one more major news is supreme court hearing on banks interest. That will create high Volatility today. Option writers should be careful today. Look to take Minimum Quantity at first with fixed Stoploss and dont keep positions open till 3.30 Nifty might trade between 11200-11380.

Pre - Market Analysis (9th September 2020)

U.S Markets fell 3% Yesterday. Asian Markets are mostly trading Negative. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11280. Nasdaq has fallen more than 11% in last 3 Trading sessions. Nasdaq is Technology companies index in U.S Technology stocks are getting beaten up abroad. Tesla which became 5X since March is Underperforming. Let's come to our Markets now. India China border issues going on & Yesterday indian Border forces have issued some official Statement. Corona Virus Cases are continuing to peak up. Government is slowly opening up the Economy now. GDP Growth rate was -24% (Negative) Media won't show you this , later on when GDP comes in Positive Govt will come and take credit. The point is it is so low now & with Opening up of economy , the Growth rate is bound to increase. Banking stocks case is going on in Supreme court for interest waiver. This is keeping Bank Nifty under pressure. Bank NIFTY rallied in August End but now has given up most of the gains. Yesterday t

Pre - Market Analysis (8th September 2020)

US markets were closed yesterday. So nothing Major Macro Cues. Dow futures are Trading in Green now. Our Markets , in spite of many issues are consolidating. Consolidation is not a bad thing at this point of time. Infact it's considered Positive for the Bulls as of now. Yesterday Idea - Vodafone event was a non event. There was nothing Major except a name change. This is nothing to be considered as Strategic alliance. Bank Nifty is looking very weak. Any small Pullback in Bank Nifty is also getting sold into very Aggressively. FII's & DII's have also been selling very Aggressively. From last week their selling has been accentuated. The view as of now is Negative - Neutral. Traders should look to sell into any Pullbacks. Buying on dips should not work for now. Markets can remain Irrational for some time now but sooner or later they will come in line with economy. Nifty might Trade between 11200-11380 today.

Pre - Market Analysis (7th September 2020) US markets were down 1% on Friday. Markets were very Volatile in U.S In spite of good jobs data in was down 3% at one Point. But in the last hour it has recovered most of the losses. Asian Markets are mildly Negative. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11340 now. U.S Markets are closed today so market should focus on local cues. As we will get direction from local Factors only. Markets are looking weak now. One side of the Economy front everything is turning negative. But Markets kept rallying. This was only because of excessive liquidity. When Markets rise without support of other factors mostly economy , a good correction is expected. When will that correction happen nobody knows. We cannot exactly time the Market. But this is not a market to buy into now. This is the Market to sell into the Rallies. All the Rallies/ Pullbacks near Resistance levels should be sold into. Idea is going to announce an important strategic news today in the Afternoon. So this sto

Pre - Market Analysis (4th September 2020) US markets were down 3% Yesterday. Nasdaq crashed more than 5%. People are considering it as profit booking . Is it profit booking or Trend reversal , time will say. Markets goes up very slowly but the downside is too fast and surprising. SGX Nifty is down 150 Points. Bank Nifty has already Underperform for whole of this series. It was up 2000 Points once but again back to Normalcy. Today can be a Black Friday for our Markets. This Liquidity driven rally which wasnt backed by Fundamentals should have. Ended at some point. Now do not go and chase the dip blindly. It's not like before that every dip will be bought. Now try to focus on sell on rallies type. Because clearly markets have been facing resistance on higher side. Yesterday Nifty was down hardly 20-30 points. But Bank Nifty was down more than a percent. It is looking very weak. Today U.S jobs data is a very important number to track. Just a word of caution do not go and buy the dip now. We

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd September 2020)

US markets closed a percent higher yesterday. But Asian Markets are Flat. SGX Nifty is up by 30  Points. The talk of the Town is SEBI pledging & Margin rules. SEBI Regulations have bought in too many complications for traders who trade with higher capital. Monday Markets fell Drastically most of it was due to SEBI pledging rules & some of it was Indo - China news. In the Blog I mentioned that sharp sell offs give opportunity to enter in Bull Markets. Nifty is up 200 Point from Monday low. Until further clarity I've not been doing trading. SEBI rules not to be tried & tested for further continuation. Bank Nifty is so highly volatile due to Illiquidity that 200-300 Point moves are happening in 5 minutes. One should be very very cautious while trading in such situations. There are so many issues which are persisting right now. Firstly , the Pledging issues. Many of our clients have applied for Pledge request but it's still not being accepted. It shows in Pe

Pre - Market Analysis (1st September 2020)

US markets closed Flat Yesterday. Asian Markets are mostly in Green. SGX Nifty is up 80 Points near 11450. Yesterday our Markets Witnessed big selling pressure. Indo - China border news and also SEBI new Margin frameworks were the root cause for the same. India VIX was up 22% Yesterday. Put options prices rose to 10 X Intraday. This is a one off day and usually doesn't happen many times. Expecting Markets to be very Volatile today as well. Today also in the first half bears will try to sell every rally. If you get follow through on the short side you should go short. If there is no follow through and Markets cross the day high then we can withess short covering. So one should be prepared to trade both sides today. GDP data was also very bad and not as per Expectations. The Million dollar Question is? Has the Trend changed or is it just a Single off day? According to me it's a Single off day. In Bull Markets sharp corrections like Yesterday present buying Opportunity