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Showing posts from November, 2021

Pre - Market Analysis (30th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed 200 points higher yesterday. Asian markets are flat to negative now. SGX Nifty is up 20 points. Yesterday our Markets were highly volatile. As soon as Market opened Nifty crashed 250 points at the open. This has been a regular feature as soon as our Market opens. This huge selling happens because of Machines. Machines are much faster than humans and we cannot stand in front of them. Nifty yesterday tried to break 17200 but failed. What's more worrying is Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty fell 20% from highs and is in a Bear Market now. Yesterday advance decline ratio was also very weak. 420 advances to 1570 declines shows a very weak advance decline ratio. Clearly momentum is lacking on the upside. This is a sell on rise Market until Nifty crosses and closes above 17250 in the near term. 17000 is the highest open interest in put options. Both in monthly and weekly expiry. So this could act as a support. I'm expecting a rangebound Market now. 17000 to 17250 i

Pre - Market Analysis (29th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed 900 points lower on Friday. Right now Dow Futures and Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty is up 80-90 points. Last Friday was the worst day of the year for all the asset class. All markets fell and it was a bloodbath. Equity Markets fell drastically , the pace of the fall was surprising. India VIX was up 25%. There was a panic in all markets and all over the World. Over the weekend there were many positive and negative news over omicron. I have a noticed one change in trading than I used to do before. After the popularity of Algo trades , the Volatility is rising exceedingly. Machines are much faster than humans. Just placing numbers in machines and then the pace towards down side rises at a rapid pace. So Stoploss is a must now. Never stand in front of machines trading. Frankly speaking , currently I don't have a view on Market. Market is solely news driven. The news coming related to Omicron and Vaccines will drive markets for a short term now. Howe

Pre - Market Analysis (26th November 2021)

U.S Markets were closed yesterday. Some major developments have taken place overnight. There's a new variant of Corona virus which has been identified in Africa. Some cases have been found of this variant in U.S as well. So U.S has banned flights from Africa. SGX Nifty is indicating a 150 point gap down at open. But I do not think we are going to open this lower. India doesn't face any issues due to this Covid variant. Plus I feel Covid concerns may slow down the pace of tapering by Fed. This could be a positive for the Markets. December is a long month with 5 weekly expirys in it. 17000 PE has the highest open interest in December series on the downside. So this could act as a good support for whole of the December series. For Intraday , one should look to buy this gap down with a stoploss of yesterday low ie , 17350. 17250 is a good support on the lower side. Now the Market is consolidating between 17250 to 17600 with high Volatility. This range could go on for a

Pre - Market Analysis (24th November 2021)

U.S Markets ended mixed Yesterday. Asian Markets and Dow futures are mixed now. SGX Nifty is up 40,50 Points. This gap up is without any reason and is likely to be sold into in first half. Yesterday I mentioned a trading range of 17250 to 17500 for Nifty and that worked well. First trade of buying near 17250 with a stop of 17200 also succeeded. Many are trading with money from my blog views but always remember I'm right 60-70% of the times. When I'm right I make money , when I'm wrong I try to minimize losses to the best possible extent. Net always I try to be profitable due to this. So if one is trading from my blog it's on your own risk so please follow strict stoplosses mentioned in Blog. Indian Govt has banned all the private crypto currencies. Let me put some data here. India has 10 crores investors of Crypto currencies whereas 7 crore investors in stock Market. Stock Market which is such a highly regulated old Market has less investors than the most un

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd November 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. There was a news regarding Jerome Powell's re-appointment as Fed chairman. U.S Markets shot up 300 points during the trading hours but all the gains were wiped off during the day end. Asian markets are weak. SGX Nifty is indicating a 100 point gap down. I will not at all be interested to sell gap down today. Selling at already 100 points fall after a 500 points fall yesterday in not a risk favour trade. I would look at pullbacks close to 17470-17520 to sell into with a stoploss of 17550. Also I would be willing to take a buy trade close to yesterday's low of 17250 with a stoploss of 17200. Because we have fallen almost 800 points in 4 trading sessions so a possibility of small recovery is always existing. So my range for the day is 17250 to 17500. I would like to trade the boundaries with strict stoploss. If I do not get boundaries then I would sit quiet. Sometimes not doing anything is the best scenario. If you sell the gap down

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd November 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Right now Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is almost flat. There were many developments over the weekend so I'll write them one after the other. Firstly , there has been Covid Resurgence in Germany and Australia. Some of them have announced full lockdowns again due to which U.S Market fell. In India as well , few doctors pointing out that last 8 days cases have been rising. Secondly , Reliance has cancelled the Saudi Aramco deal. Now we know why Reliance was falling everyday. Insiders get the news before handed and I feel it has been priced in. Now its not the time to sell Reliance as it has already fallen. Third major development is the waiver of Farm laws. Our Prime Minister , Narendra Modi apologized in media and waived the farm laws. Many are pointing this out as Election move etc etc. Let's not get into politics and just analyse from Stock Market perspective. Before the previous Union Elections , BJP

Pre - Market Analysis (18th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Asian markets and Dow futures are lower right now. SGX Nifty is indicating 20-30 point lower opening. There is only one word to describe these markets. That is Volatile. Markets are on a serious Volatility in November series. I've seen Corona Virus , Nirmala Candle , Taper Tantrum etc and handled well. But this November Volatility is too much. 17800 is the next support for Nifty. Bank Nifty is too weak. Friday's low has been breached for both Nifty and Bank Nifty. We have a long weekend coming so traders wouldn't like to carry their positions on weekend. Expecting a high volatile expiry today. Bank Nifty Feb high was 37700. After this Bank Nifty fell a bit went to 41800. All these gains have been wiped out in just few weeks. 18000 CE has added huge open interest in both weekly & monthly options. These levels are not likely to breach today. Short term view is bearish. I'm selling only call options now with hedge. Nifty

Pre - Market Analysis (17th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Retail Sales data of U.S have come better than Expected. Asian markets are mixed. But SGX Nifty is weak. SGX Nifty is down 70 Points. Though India VIX is collapsing daily but the Markets remain to be highly volatile. Yesterday after 2 pm there was a huge selling. Last 1 hour Nifty broke 18000. High amount of Call Options have been sold at 18100 and above strike prices. Nifty is likely to test the Friday's low of 17900 today. This should act as the first support for our markets. If we are unable to hold onto this level , then we can expect further selling downside. 17800 should be the next support and if that is gone then 17600. November has been a very difficult month for traders. Due to such huge Volatility and unexpected moves all the traders are struggling to manage. Option writers are also facing issues in handling positions. Usually the Wednesdays are highly volatile and the Volatility is expected to go higher today. 18000 , 181

Pre - Market Analysis (16th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed flat Yesterday. Asian markets and Dow Futures are slightly higher. SGX Nifty is trading near 18200. Yesterday as well SGX was indicating a gap up near 18220 but markets opened at 18140. After opening we tried to go near SGX level but 18200 became a stiff resistance. 18200 CE added 50L contracts yesterday. 18200 CE has been sold heavily yesterday and 18000 PE as well. Option sellers are expecting a tight range of 18000 to 18200 for this expiry. In the past as well when there has been heavy call writing Market rallies as and when this call writers get in trouble. November has been a failrly rangebound and volatile Market. There have been big moves within the range. India VIX was also higher by 3% yesterday. Yesterday the low for Nifty futures was 18100. 18100 got tested yesterday and Market has respected this level. Nifty is looking strong but Bank Nifty is looking quite weak. 39000 CE was sold heavily yesterday. Hedging could be done selling CE in Bank Nif

Pre - Market Analysis (15th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Right now Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are flat. SGX Nifty is up 100 points near 18200. FII's have been relentlessly selling for whole of November. Until they changed their mind on Friday. Friday for the first time FII data was positive and this led to a huge short covering in the Market. Market was highly volatile in whole of November. Friday we opened with a gap up hit 17900 and then zoomed towards 18100. 18100 was a very important level as it was the upper range for the month. Now we have closed at the upper range and today's gap indicates that Market has broke out. 18300 and 18420 is the next resistance for Nifty. Bank Nifty has huge call writing at 39000. Today's gap up might be somewhere near this range and if call writers start to wind up , then we might see a rally there as well. Today is a very important day to watch for FII data. We need to confirm whether its a continuous buying or just one off day on Frid

Pre - Market Analysis (12th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday. Right now Dow futures are higher. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is up 20,30 points. Yesterday was a volatile expiry. Market kept falling since open. As soon as Nifty broke 17900 it's support level , the selling intensified. India VIX was 7% higher yesterday during the day. The final 30 minutes witnessed good amount of short covering. Nifty took support around 17800 yesterday. As I've been saying 17800 to 18100 is the range currently. Market is trading with huge Volatility in this range. Market is weak  specially the Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty hit an all time high of 41800 in October end. Now it's at 38500. Down more than 10%  because of inflation fears. The sentiment is negative now as we haven't a closing above 18100 for Nifty. At lower levels short covering is saving the Market from collapsing. Else the situation would've been much worse. Expect the range to continue for some more time. Nifty might Trade between 178

Pre - Market Analysis (11th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. U.S Inflation data has come at a multi decade high of 6.2% for October. This is the highest number in last 30 years. Dow futures and Asian markets are currently higher now. SGX Nifty is trading at 17960. Nifty is consolidating within a range of 17800 to 18100. Within this range it's been trading with high Volatility. Markets are waiting for some fresh triggers to give a fresh move. FII's have been consistently selling since October End. The magnitude has reduced than before but selling has not stopped. Yesterday due to Reliance Market was stabilized. Reliance seems to have bottomed out near 2500-2480. Before results it was near 2750 but witnessed profit booking and came to 2500. Reliance is an index heavyweight and a very important component for Nifty. Zomato has come with its results yesterday and it worsens every quarter. Losses increase to 500 crores in a quarter. A loss making start up acquires stake in other profit making sta

Pre - Market Analysis (10th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. After closing in green for 8 consecutive trading sessions they have witnessed some profit booking. It was one of the highest winning streaks for market. Today the inflation data is going to be announced in U.S. Ahead of the same markets are a bit shaky. Asian markets are lower. SGX Nifty is trading at 17960 today. We are likely to have a decent gap down opening today and I feel that 17920-17900 is a good buying opportunity. 17900 PE added huge open interest when we crossed 18k. This support level shouldnt break easily today. We are in a consolidation mode currently and there is no clear trend. Looks like Nifty is again going to fall back in 17800 to 18000 range before a possible big move. IndusInd Bank has stabilized yesterday and that has settled Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty is a good risk reward zone buy near 38900 -39000 which is Mondays low. Nifty near 17900 is a good opportunity to enter. We have supports at 17800-17850 and 17900 all the w

Pre - Market Analysis (9th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Right now Dow futures and Asian Markets are lower. SGX Nifty is at 18100. Volatility intensifies in November. Yesterday Nifty opened with a huge gap up , fell 150 points from day high. Took support near 17850 and then rallied 300 points. This is a three way move on a particular trading day. 18000 CE had the highest open interest until yesterday. More than 1 crore contracts were written for 18000 CE. Naturally all these traders had to run for cover as soon as we broke out of 18k. Currently the highest open interest has now been shifted to 17900 PE in weekly options. 18200 CE has the next highest open interest. 17900 to 18200 is Likely to be the range for the current expiry. IndusInd Bank was the stock in focus yesterday. Many loans were transferred to inactive accounts due to technical glitch amounting nearly to 34000 crores. This led to a 10% fall in no time for IndusInd Bank. This was the reason for underperformance of Bank Nifty yester

Pre - Market Analysis (8th November 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Right now Asian Markets are slightly positive. SGX Nifty is near 18k. November has been a fairly volatile month for index. Nifty at the end of october fell 1000 points from 18600 to 17600. Made a short term bottom from those levels and since then it has been a sideways Market. 17800 to 18000 is the range for Nifty. Nifty is moving with high Volatility within this range. The good news is that India VIX is falling continuously. India VIX is now below 16. India VIX below 15 is considered to be bullish trend moving forward. FII's were selling heavily at the beginning of November but now the magnitude has reduced. Many term that it might be due to tapering news or some issues in corporate tax etc. Whatever it might be , seems like the revenge selling is out of the way now. In the past I have observed as and when FII long position goes below 50% Markets in the coming weeks have rallied uniformly. Now it's the same situation In our Mark