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Showing posts from May, 2023

Breakout !! (29th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is up 160 points. 4. Asian Markets are higher. 5. Friday was a breakout day. 6. Nifty finally broke out of the huge resistance.  7. All over the May month , there was stiff resistance at 18400 for nifty. 8. This level got taken out decisively on Friday,  and markets closed at the highest point of the day. 9. This shows extreme Bullishness in the markets currently. 10. While Bank Nifty is yet to break out of 44100 levels. 11. Today with this huge gap up Bank Nifty might straight away open above the resistance.  12. India VIX currently is close to all time low. 13. Markets are inching higher on the expectations of debt ceiling issue being settled. 14. 18700 CE has the highest open interest among weekly options for nifty. 15. FII's have started buying aggressively for the Indian Equities. 16. This is a huge gap up if we open as per what SGX Nifty suggests. 17. IT Stocks are

Welcome June (26th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is down 40-50 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Yesterday was a stable expiry. 6. With huge short covering in the 2nd half of expiry. 7. Monthly expiry throw in lots of surprises as we have always seen. 8. Yesterday was no different. 9. 18300 CE low was 2rs Yesterday. 10. From 2rs it had went all the way up to 32rs. 11. The market tone currently is still Bulish. 12. I'll be Bullish until 18050 holds  13. All the levels I mention here are of Spot levels. 14. Still the range of 18200 to 18400 holds on Nifty. 15. I expect some outperformance in Bank Nifty now. 16. For more of the last expiry , Bank Nifty had underperformed. 17. Expecting it to cover up underperformance now. 18. Nasdaq in the U.S Market was higher yesterday. 19. Nasdaq is the IT index of U.S Market. 20. Expecting Indian IT Stocks to outperform now. 21. Yesterday even when markets were lower ,

Consolidation!! (25th May 2023)

1.  Markets closed lower Yesterday. 2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is Flat. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Yesterday was a profit booking day. 6. Yesterday Nifty was rangebound in the first half. 7. In the second half there was some Volatility. 8. Nifty for most of the day traded near 18300. 9. Today is the monthly expiry. 10. 18200 to 18400 is the range coming now for the expiry 11. Monthly expiry are also unpredictable , it can throw in lots of surprises. 12. Specially during the 2nd half of the trading session today  13. Bank Nifty is finding continued resistance near 44100 levels. 14. Support being witnessed at 43500 levels.  15. So the range for both the indices are absolutely clear. 16. Nifty range is between 18200 to 18400. 17. Bank Nifty range is 43500 to 44100 . 18. Once any of these levels get taken out then we could expect a trending move. 19. Once 18400 gets taken out then there would be a shift 100 points move towards 18500. 20. Sim

Reversal from 18400 (24th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. 2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is lower by 40-50 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Yesterday was a reversal day. 6. Not exactly a reversal day , it could be termed as a profit booking day  7. Majority of the profit booking happened in the final 30 minutes. 8. Nifty fell 70 points from the day high. 9. Bank Nifty closed slightly negative. 10. Weighted average rates of the last 15 minutes are taken during closing. 11. Hence it's showing a better picture than what exactly is reality. 12. 18400 could be a double top for this expiry. 13. As of now , the current picture shows the same. 14. Bank Nifty is underperforming Nifty since many trading sessions now. 15. Current range for nifty is between 18200 to 18400 now. 16. Bank Nifty is facing stiff resistance at 44100 levels. 17. Twice now , it has reversed from 44100 levels. 18. Volatility is a bit high in the final week of expiry. 19. U.S VIX inched 8% h

FIN Nifty Expiry!! (23rd May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday. 2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is higher by 40-50 Points. 4. Asian Markets are higher. 5. Yesterday was a momentum continuation day. 6. Nifty carried its momentum from Friday and closed at the highs of the day. 7. Last 2 trading sessions , Nifty has closed at the highest point of the day. 8. Before the last 2 trading sessions,  for 3 consecutive trading sessions Nifty closed in red. 9. Nifty had reversed from 18400 levels all the way to 18050 levels. 10. In the last 2 trading sessions , it has reversed all the way from 18050 levels to 18300. 11. The larger trend of the markets is Bullish. 12. In was just a shake off in between to cut the weak longs off. 13. Markets was in a continued upswing and almost everyone was long on the markets. 14. Hence it was a jerk to cut the weak longs off. 15. 18050 to 18400 is the bigger range for Nifty now. 16. Nifty is trading violently within this range. 17. Volatility has

Finale Expiry Week (19th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed  higher yesterday.  2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is higher by 40-50 Points. 4. Asian Markets are higher. 5. Yesterday was a strange trading day. 6. I say strange because SGX Nifty pre market was showing 30-40 point gap up opening. 7. Nifty opened around 120 points higher. 8. This was a huge gap up out of nowhere. 9. So naturally it was an excellent shorting opportunity.  10. The Volatility again yesterday was super high. 11. Nifty tested the previous day low of 18100 once again yesterday.  12. There was an intense selling during the last 30 minutes yesterday.  13. Surprisingly,  INDIA VIX hasn't inched higher in last 3 days of extreme sell off. 14. This shows that there is lesser panic in the markets right now.  15. Currently,  we have a good risk - reward trade opening up on Nifty. 16. 18100 looks as a double bottom being made on Nifty for the short term. 17. There are fever indications for the same  18. One could g

Relentless Selling (18th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed significantly higher yesterday.  2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is higher by 40-50 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Yesterday was again a trending day. 6. It was a trending day towards  downside. 7. Nifty opened around 15 points higher yesterday and Bank nifty around 100 points. 8. As soon as Markets opened there was a relentless selling. 9. Nifty from 18300 dragged down all the day close to 18100. 10. Last 30 Mims there was some recovery due to short covering. 11. India VIX closed flat yesterday.  12. The kind of Volatility it was yesterday,  VIX isn't reflecting the true picture. 13. As soon as Markets are coming to the flag end of May month,  Volatility has shot up. 14. It's advisable to keep your Positions as light as you can. 15. Do not sell naked options in such environment.  16. Always use risk defined strategies to gain edge in such market conditions.  17. Expect some sort of support near yesterday'

FIN Nifty reversal (17th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday.  2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is lower by 40-50 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Yesterday was a Volatile FIN Nifty expiry. 6. Markets reversed 150 points from the highest point of the day. 7. This also comes to a percent type of reversal. 8. Now , Nifty us back to the range of 18200 to 18350. 9. 18200 is a strong support on Nifty now. 10. Bank Nifty reversed as well from 44k. 11. It could be termed as profit booking Yesterday.  12  Generally , such type of reversals either make you consolidate in the previous range. 13. They can even break the previous swing high from which they have reversed. 14. 18500 CE has the highest OI in monthly options. 15. This also caused the markets to correct from these levels. 16. I expect markets to consolidate in the short term. 17. U.S VIX went up 5% yesterday. 18. Expect India VIX also to rise a bit. 19. Nifty might trade between 18200 to 18450 today.  20.  stockm

Markets in an Upswing (16th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is higher by 40-50 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Mondays are generally trending days. 6. From last 2 years im observing that Mondays are mostly the trending days. 7. Either markets closes at highest point of the day or at the lowest point of the day  8. Yesterday the markets have closed at the highest point of the day. 9. Nifty finally has crossed the important barrier of 18350. 10. I kept saying whole week that Nifty was trading in a tight range of 150 points. 11. The range was 18200 to 18350. 12. Within this range , markets were moving two way. 13. This range had to break soon. 14. Yesterday Markets have closed on a Bullish tone. 15. Bank Nifty was the outperformer.  16. It was now crossed 44k  17. Banks are steaming ahead and are outperforming nifty currently. 18. 18500 CE has the highest OI in monthly options. 19. This is likely to act as huge resistance now. 20

Long Consolidation (15th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday 2  Right now , Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is down 40-50 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. Election results were announced over the weekend. 6. We all know the outcome , how market will react to the same is a big question 7. There would be a first hour Volatility In the markets. 8. As the market will open. 9. Expecting markets to settle later on. 10. Markets are still in that tight range. 11. 18200 to 18350 is a tight trading band. 12. Nifty us moving Vigorously within these levels. 13. If this range doesn't get taken out in first hour then expect this range to continue for some more days. 14. This has already been a long consolidation within this range. 15. Bank Nifty was the outperformer on Friday. 16. Banks look much more stronger than Nifty currently.  17. Elections verdict according to me is likely to be a Non - Event. 18. I don't see big market change due to the same  19. Individual banking stocks loo

18200 - 18500 (12th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Dow Jones was weaker among all the indices. 3. Nasdaq closed slightly higher. 4. Right now , Dow Futures are slightly higher. 5. SGX Nifty is down 40-50 Points. 6. I don't think we will be opening that lower. 7. Yesterday was a flat expiry. 8. There was large moves in between to trap option writers. 9. All in all it was a stable expiry. 10. Nifty is now trading in a right range. 11. 18200 to 18350 is the range for nifty. 12. Many a times it has been moving within this range. 13. This range would not hold on forever  14. There would be a possible move either side. 15. I expect a breakout above 18350 soon. 16. Markets are in an upswing and as we have moved higher too quick there's a consolidation going on. 17. Expect this consolidation to continue until elections verdict. 18. There's a big move possible hence it's better to keep your positions light over the weekend. 19. I'm personally not carrying any positions o

Consolidation!! (10th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is as flat as it can be. 4. Asian Markets are mostly lower. 5. It was a complete consolidation yesterday. 6. Markets opened with a gap up of about 50-60 Points yesterday. 7. It was the same throughout the first half. 8. In the 2nd half there was a slight profit booking. 9. Markets closed flat yesterday.  10. 18200 is a good support on Nifty as if now. 11. The 2nd big support is at 18050. 12. I have sold Monthly puts below 18050 and calls above 18600. 13. Expect markets to trade between 18200 to 18500 for a while now. 14. 18500 CE has the highest open interest for Call Options. 15. 18000 PE has the highest open interest for Put Options. 16. So the monthly range as of now comes to be 18000 to 18500. 17. There's no doubt that Markets are in an upswing. 18. One has to look for going long in the current scenario. 19. Shorting the markets to make pennies isn't a good idea  20

Markets at swing high !! (9th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is up 20-30 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mostly lower. 5. It was a complete U-turn yesterday. 6. Friday there was a huge profit booking in the markets  7. Bank Nifty had crashed 1000 points on Friday 8. Yesterday it was complete opposite. 9. It was a huge short covering rally yesterday and markets closed at the highs of the day. 10. It was a huge zig - zag type of move yesterday.  11. India VIX is close to 13 now. 12. Option premiums are ultra low now. 13. Expect premiums to stay lower in the coming months too  14. I'm having a Bullish view on the markets now. 15. First support for nifty is at 18200. 16. Major support to come around 18050 levels. 17. Many shorts are still in the system due to Friday's move and they are likely to cover in due time. 18. That would cause further rally in the markets. 19. Ride your longs , trail your stoploss to ride the big move. 20. In tr

Reversal from 18250 !! (8th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is up 20-30 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mostly lower. 5. Friday was a complete roller - coaster day for the Bulls. 6. Market opened with positivity but then selling started. 7. The selling was so severe that Nifty broke 18200 and went all the way to 18100 within an hour. 8. Such was the intensity of the selling.  9. One Positive thing about Fridays action of U.S Markets is the collapse of VIX. 10. U.S VIX collapsed 14% on Friday. 11. It was going up aggressively before Friday. 12. On Friday , INDIA VIX also jumped higher by 5%. 13. HDFC twins along with Indusind Bank were responsible for this collapse on Friday. 14. Rest of the market was pretty ok. 15. During the day , it felt as if FII's were the one who were booking profits. 16. To my surprise , FII's were net buyers for 700+ crore. 17. DII's have sold for more than 2000+ crores. 18. After the month of October 2

18200 breached (5th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. It's been a hat trick of consecutive downward days in U.S Markets. 3. Markets have closed in deep red for 3 consecutive trading sessions now. 4. Right now Dow Futures are slightly higher. 5. SGX Nifty is down 70-80 Points. 6. Asian Markets are mostly lower. 7. Yesterday , once again it was a pleasant surprise on the expiry day. 8. Markets indicated a big gap down opening close to 18k. 9. Surprisingly,  markets opened above 18100 10. It was a trending sort of expiry. 11. There were few small dips on between but majorly the markets were trending higher. 12. Last 30 minutes there was a combined breakout in both nifty and bank nifty. 13. Markets closed significantly higher above 18200 on Nifty and 43500 on Bank Nifty which were the major resistance levels. 14. Both the FII's and the DII's were net buyers yesterday.  15. FII's bought for 1443 crore whereas DII's bought for a small sun of 462 crore. 16. These numbers

FED Effect (4th May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now Dow Futures are slightly lower. 3. SGX Nifty is down 70-80 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mostly lower. 5. Yesterday was the much awaited FED decision day. 6. Street Expectations going into the event was 0.25% rate hike. 7. FED Delivered the same. 8. So it was basically a non-event with no further surprise in terms of outcome. 9. There was a huge short covering rally in all the Global Markets before the event. 10. Even we have rallied one way from 16800 to 18200. 11. It's more of a profit booking type after the event. 12. Yesterday markets opened lower and were negative throughout the day. 13. It tried to recover during the day but only to get sold into in the end. 14. We are likely to open near 18k today. 15. As I've been mentioning , 18k PE has the highest OI in weekly options. 16. Today we have weekly expiry as well. 17. So one could consider going long near 18k with a stoploss of 40-50 points purely for intraday

VIX Surge !! (3rd May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed lower yesterday.  2. Right now Dow Futures are slightly higher. 3. SGX Nifty is down 70-80 Points. 4. Asian Markets are mostly lower. 5. First Republic Bank issue sent shock waves in U.S Market. 6. At one point of time , Dow Jones was down 600 points. 7. Towards the end of the day , there was some recovery. 8. This Banking crisis is heating up the issue in the Global Markets. 9. India VIX shot up 10% yesterday without any reason. 10. U.S VIX surged 20% yesterday. 11. Yesterday we closed above 18100 which is a Bullish Sign. 12. I expect Markets to consolidate between 18000 to 18200 for a while  13. Markets have raced higher in a short span of time. 14. There has been a non - stop continuous rally since a week. 15. Consolidation would help markets to gather steam  16. 18k Put has the highest OI in weekly options so it's likely to act as a major support  17. Meanwhile we may face resistance around 18200 levels. 18. Markers underlying tone is Bullish a

Markets Racing Ahead (2nd May 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. Right now Dow Futures are Flat. 3. SGX Nifty is higher. 4. Asian Markets are mixed. 5. FII's have turned net buyers since last week. 6. Whole of 2022 and first Quarter of 2023 they have sold aggressively.  7. Now they have started buying in huge Quantities.  8. Yesterday the GST Collection numbers were announced for April month  9. The GST Collection numbers were at all time high for the Month of April. 10. These GST Collection numbers have increased 20% month on month 11. GDP numbers are decreasing,  corporate results are not upto mark but GST numbers are rising. 12. This shows Government is sucking in more and more amounts from public. 13. This doesn't show increased Economic activities as on date. 14. Anyways , GST Numbers increasing is a positive trigger for the markets  15. The Government receives more funds from the public for public welfare and they can use it for Economic Growth  16. 18000 PE has the highest open in