Skip to main content


Showing posts from March, 2021

Pre - Market Analysis (31st March 2021)

US markets closed slightly lower Yesterday. SGX Nifty Yesterday night was near 14950. Right now SGX Nifty is around 14850. Asian markets are a bit weak. Hence this weakness in SGX Nifty. I have been actively trading since 9 years in Stock Market now. One thing I always expect from Stock Market is Uncertainty and Surprises. Yesterday both Nifty & Bank Nifty were up more than 2.5% as on closing basis. After a big gap up many were expecting Markets to consolidate or be weaker. But Market continued the rally. As a trader it's important not to be stubborn and stick to your original plan. If plan isn't working change the same immediately. So in last 2 trading sessions both Nifty and Bank Nifty are up more than 4%. Now the most important question. Will we rally further , whether there will be a sell off or will we consolidate? I feel that 14600 is a good support on the lower side for this weekly expiry. We had a broad based rally these two days plus both FII's &

Pre - Market Analysis (30th March 2021)

US markets closed a percent higher on Friday. Yesterday our Markets were closed but World Markets were open. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday. SGX Nifty is now up 160 Points. So we are likely to open with a big gap up today. Asian markets are mostly higher. US 10 year bond yield above 1.7%. Bond Yield above 1.5% is a worrying sign for the Emerging Markets. Covid cases are also increasing across India. FII's have turned net sellers. So looking at all these paramaters I feel this is the time to sell Call Options against this gap up. This gap up has no Meaning. There are some disturbing things going on in U.S Markets. On Friday, Institutions have sold 20 billion worth of shares due to forced liquidation of Archego. You may remember what happened in U.S when there were disturbances due to GameStop. Indian Markets also fell at that time. I feel unless the things settle down in U.S now our Markets would also be weak. On Friday India VIX crashed more than 10% and option Prem

Pre - Market Analysis (26th March 2021)

US markets closed Positive after quite some time yesterday. Asian markets are also recovering. SGX Nifty is higher by 120 Points. Yesterday was the Most Volatile Expiry I've seen in my entire lifetime.. Bank Nifty opened Positive then went down 1000 Points , recovered 1000 Points post 1 pm and then after 2.45 fell 700 Points. This type of Volatility is Unbelievable and quite insane. Yesterday I mentioned that my view is Bearish / Neutral. So the idea was to sell Call options and it made fantastic return Yesterday. Yesterday was the first month after March 2020 where Nifty has closed Negative. FII's have turned net sellers now. This is the time to stay cautioned. Look for Sharp bounces to sell Into. April is a long series and it has 5 weekly expirys. Yesterday we fell a lot more due to Expiry issues. Expecting Markets to recover around 14400-14500 in the short term. Nifty might Trade between 14220-14480 today.

Pre - Market Analysis (25th March 2021)

US Markets opened Positive Yesterday but Ultimately closed in Red. Nasdaq is also Trading lower. Asian Markets are mostly in Red. March would be the first week where Nifty has expired Negative. FII's have started to sell. When FII's press sell Button this is how Market falls. SGX Nifty at one time was below 14500 but has recovered now. 14500 is a near term support for Nifty if that breaks then next support comes around 14350. Same way 14700 CE has added highest open Interest yesterday. That would act as a resistance today. Monthly Expirys are more Volatile than weekly Expirys as there is excess participation. Futures Contract Expiry also happens the same day. Plus rollover of some Futures Positions too. This creates added Volatility. I have sold Many Call Options. 14750 CE , 14800 CE , 14700 CE on Nifty. Have sold 34000 , 34100 , 34200 , 34300 , 34400 , 34500 CE on Bank Nifty. Will look to exit these trades in first half as premiums would come to single digits mostl

Pre - Market Analysis (24th March 2021)

US markets closed lower Yesterday. Right now U.S Futures are trading slightly lower too. Asian markets are Flat. SGX Nifty is trading near 14800. Wednesdays are one of the most Volatile days for the week. Today I expect Markets to be Volatile. Yesterday the Supreme Court Verdict was announced and it was on Expected lines. Verdict can be considered to be as Positive for the Banks. Crude is down more than 15% in a week. As India is the highest Importer of Crude , it's a positive news for us. On the other side there are some negative news too. Due to Covid cases increasing , many states and Cities are again resorting to lockdown. As proved by Health Experts , the second wave of Corona Virus is deadly dangerous. Vaccination has arrived but has been going on in a slow pace. Also there is fear among many owing to Vaccination. Bank Nifty has been Underperforming Significantly. This is Dragging Nifty lower as well. Expecting the Markets to expire between 14500 to 15000 for this

Pre - Market Analysis (23rd March 2021)

US markets Opened on a Negative note Yesterday but closed higher. Asian markets are mostly Trading higher. SGX Nifty is almost flat / Positive. Yesterday FII's were net sellers and they sold heavily in Pvt Sector Banks. Bank Nifty Underperformed Significantly yesterday. Due to Bank Nifty Underperformance , Nifty also was dragged. Supreme Court ruling on loan moratorium case is due to today. This is the reason why Bank Nifty under performed yesterday. Due to Uncertainty because of Ruling , FII's must have booked some profit. I expect the Verdict to be a Non event today and it might be postponed further. How will the Markets react to the same will be Interesting to see. 15000 CE added highest open interest yesterday. So this can act as a stiff resistance for this expiry. March series was highly Volatile and generally in the last week Market makes a big move. Expecting a big move in these 3 trading sessions. But for that to happen Nifty should either cross 15k or break

Pre - Market Analysis (22nd March 2020)

Asian markets are slightly positive. Dow Futures are trading lower. SGX Nifty is trading around 14800. On Friday , within few minutes of Market opening Nifty and Bank Nifty broke the Monthly low. Nifty made a low of 14350 but then bounced back 350+ Points by the end of the day. This was supported by big short covering later during the day. US markets showing divergence. Dow Futures down but Nasdaq is up. U.S Markets are in a Consolidation phase. Indian Markets too on a close to close basis is in a Consolidation. March Month is typically a Consolidation but with huge Volatility. Dow Future down but Nasdaq Future up. Covid cases increasing rapidly in India. Maharashtra seems to be the worst effected. Many states starting to put restrictions and having mini lockdowns. Market as of now isn't reacting to such news. FII's buying spree is on. On Friday , both FII's & DII's bought and were net buyers. FIIs have bought for Rs 7500 crores in last one week. We have

Pre - Market Analysis (16th March 2020)

US markets closed slightly positive yesterday. Right now , U.S futures are also Trading higher. SGX Nifty is Trading near 15000. Yesterday in the first half our Markets fell Drastically. It slowly started to recover in the second half. The issue right now is the India VIX. India VIX keeps rising as there is a fall in the Market. Friday it was up 8%. Yesterday up 4%. Option prices are very high currently due to higher VIX. Volatility is also extreme. Moves are very fast and violent. Calls above 15200 have been written aggressively. Do not expect Market to go much higher from here at least for this expiry. 14500 PUT also has good amount of open interest. So not expecting Nifty to go below 14500. Nifty might Trade between 14860-15080 today.

Pre - Market Analysis (10th March 2021)

US markets were up Yesterday. S&P 500 was up 2% and Nasdaq up more than 4%. U.S Markets have given a clear breakout Yesterday. SGX Nifty is now Trading around 15250. Both FII's & DII's were buyers Yesterday. Not only they were buyers but they have bought Aggressively. Expecting 2nd half of March to be fairly Bullish. Do not sell options for March series. Market might shock you on the upside. Bond Yields in U.S have lightened up and this will give Financial sector a boost. Also there has been a big amount of short covering at higher levels. 15100 , 15200 have added more interest. All these are likely to be trapped today. They can propell Markets higher in coming time. I'm selling 14000-14500 Put Options for Monthly series as of now. To hedge it one can sell 16000 CE. For short term I feel we can touch 15500. Consult your Financial advisor before taking any Position. Nifty might Trade between 15120-15320 today. Dow up 300 Points. As

Pre - Market Analysis (9th March 2020)

US markets opened positive but immediately witnessed a good amount of profit booking. Dow up 300 Points. Asian markets are mostly weak. SGX Nifty is higher, trading around 15060 now. Yesterday Markets did gap up but then got sold off then recovered again sold off and closed almost flat. It was a highly Volatile intraday session but on a close to close basis Market was up only 18 points. Bank Nifty is taking support at 35000. This seems to be a strong support area. The concern now for Bulls is even FII's have started selling now. Selling is a bit aggressive now. But FIIs keep selling. They have sold for Rs 1500 crores Yesterday. In F&O also, they have added short positions. Also huge amounts of Call writing has been done 15000-15200 call options. This is a truncated week so the expiry is tomorrow itself. Options premiums reduced drastically yesterday as they were very high on Friday. Expecting this expiry between 14800 to 15200 with heavy Volatility. Nifty might Trad

Pre - Market Analysis (8th March 2021)

US markets closed higher on Friday. Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty indicates more than 100 Point gap up as of now. Thursday it was a big down , today a big gap up. Volatility continues to be extreme. India VIX was up on Friday which is natural when Market goes lower. Today's gap up is majorly due to good Job numbers posted in U.S Market is being Volatile but is Trading within the range. Rangebound Approach is to be adopted for making money in this Market. Mean Reversion strategy should be used by students attended training from me. The primary range is 14800 to 15200. Broader range is 14500-15200. Take counter positions near extremes and apply Mean Reversion. Fundamentals data from China is also good. They have reported good Export Import data. It's March End and it's Financial Year closing time. Squaring up of positions , booking profits etc are natural in such scenario. Volatility can increase as we go ahead in March series. Nifty might Trade between 1492

Pre - Market Analysis (5th March 2021)

US markets fell Yesterday. US 10 Year Bond yield shot up to 1.55%. This is bound to happen due to more stimulus the Bond Yields will go higher. This is a worry for our markets. Another worry is the Volatility. U.S VIX is now close to 30. India VIX close to 30. Yesterday the Volatility was high. Expecting Volatility to increase going further in March series. Nasdaq is down by more than 10% from recent high. More than 10% fall in U.S Terms is considered as a correction. A fall of more than 20% is considered as Bear market. Asian Markets are beginning to recover slowly. SGX Nifty made a low of 14800 now trading around 14970. Option Premiums are too high indicating significant Volatility going forward. If we break today's low I won't be surprised to see 14500 again. Expecting Nifty to be volatile between 14800 & 15200 and this is the short term range. Nifty might Trade between 14880-15080 today.

Pre - Market Analysis (4th March 2021)

US markets fell Yesterday. Nasdaq down more than 300 Points. Technology stocks are facing a hit as they are highly Overvalued abroad. Asian Markets are all Trading lower. Ten year bond yield has gone up from 1.14% to 1.49%. SGX Nifty Indicating big gap down today now trading at 15020. Yesterday Markets broke 15k and closed significantly higher. Now Markets indicating severe gap down. I mentioned Yesterday my range for expiry as 14800-15200. Markets are highly Volatile within this range. Option writers who exited calls yesterday after big rally and held puts will again face severe hit today. This Volatility will cause Attacks to writers. Plus today is weekly expiry. 15100 Put has 39L open interest whereas 15000 Put has 59L open interest. If we start trading lower big unwinding will happen in these options. This can create more panic on the downside. I've sold 15000 PE & 15300 CE Yesterday. Expecting this gap down to cause some issues. Will look to manage positions an

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd March 2021)

US markets fell Yesterday. Asian Markets are Trading mixed. SGX Nifty is now Trading above 15k. Yesterday last hour we witnessed a heavy short covering. Nifty was up 150 Points and Bank Nifty was up 300 Points. 15000 CE has the open interest. Option writers have sold this Call Option heavily. Once we break this level we might witness a heavy short covering as option writers would look for cover. I feel Markets will expire somewhere near to previous week expiry level. Previous week we expired around 15100 guess this week also it's going to be the same. 15200 is a big resistance for Nifty and it has reversed almost 4-5 times from that level. So the Possibility of crossing 15200 seems difficult this week. On the down side 14800 should act as a good support. So the range comes in between 14800-15200 for Nifty for this expiry. Unless anything drastic happens or fresh news triggers out. I feel we should expire within above levels. Generally Wednesdays are Rangebound sessions

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd March 2021)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. Right now Dow Futures are also higher. Asian Markets are mostly Positive. SGX Nifty indicates a gap up of 100 Points. It's amazing how the perception changes. On Friday when Market fell everybody was talking about Interest rates , Inflation etc. Now when Markets are rising , talk is about Stimulus , GDP etc . As I always say , Bears last for only 1 day in Bull Market. Bulls come roaring back the next day. Every Correction is an Opportunity to go long in Bull Market. Yesterday we fell a bit due to Intraday Volatility but then closed at the high Point of the day. Bank Nifty was volatile between 35000 and 35500. The Good news is that India VIX has fallen 10% Yesterday. Put Options premium fell by 70-80% for weekly options Yesterday. I'm looking to sell 14300 PE on every dip on Nifty. 15000 is a resistance going ahead and the next resistance is 15200. These 2 are important levels to watch out for on the upside. GDP data was at 0.4 on