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Showing posts from August, 2020

Pre - Market Analysis (31st August 2020)

U.S Markets closed mildly Positive on Friday Asian Markets are all Trading higher. SGX Nifty is around 11760. Indicating a gap up of about 80+ Points. Bank Nifty is the star of the show Currently. Bank Nifty was up 1000 Points on Friday and has clearly broken out from all its Resistances. Bank Nifty itself is taking Nifty higher. Weekend another major news was announced relating to Reliance - Future group deal. Expecting Reliance to Trade on a Positive momentum after this. Only last week RBI Governor said markets will correct. Markets are moving higher with more momentum after that. Today's talk of the town is Reliance buying Future Retail. Second big news is the extension of Moratorium by Banks. Moratorium extension is Negative for Banks and vice versa. PSU banks are looking so strong and on a serious Bull Market. Look for pockets which was not performed in the recent rally. These are where you can make money now. Buy the Dip and ride the Trend. Nifty might trade betwe

Pre - Market Analysis (28th August 2020)

US markets trading at fresh record highs with each passing day.  Asian markets are slightly Bullish. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11620. This has been a Phenomenal rally by the Markets. Nobody expected markets to recover so quick , so fast. August Month has also been a great Month for Bull's. How long will this rally sustain? Can our Markets touch fresh record highs? The Answer is Yes , anything is Possible. The rally is so strong that Bears are being taken to cleaners. Expecting a Month of Consolidation for September.  These are all Probabilities , not Certainties. Markets can do anything out of the box. August Month belonged to Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty was underperforming for last 2 Months. But in August Bank Nifty Single Handedly took Nifty higher. It is a Buy on dip Market. Just follow the Trend and make money. Do not do anything fancy. Reliance has entered into Consolidation phase. FiI's have been buying continuously whereas DII's have been selling. Nifty might

Pre - Market Analysis (27th August 2020)

US markets closed at record highs & up 0.5% But Asian markets are not mixed.  SGX Nifty is almost Flat. Yesterday for the first half Nifty traded only within 30 Point range. Second half was witnessed by massive short covering. Bank Nifty & Nifty were up significantly. I did mention in my previous blog that If 11500 crosses and sustains we would witness 11600 instantly. We are not far from the targets. FII's were net buyers yesterday but DII's were net sellers. Shared an SBI Strategy on Telegram and it's running at 6k profit per lot. Link of Telegram Channel Today Expiry seems to be on the Bullish side But you never know with Monthly Expiries. Big Moves might also happen. As an Option seller we have stuck to Equity Option Selling and have avoided Nifty & Bank Nifty as Volatility is always high for Monthly Expiry. Today will look to sell on every dip. Bank Nifty has been Outperforming the Nifty. PSU banks looks strong a

Pre - Market Analysis (25th August 2020)

U.S Markets were up 1.4% Yesterday. Global Markets are touching fresh highs almost on daily basis. Asian Markets are Positive. SGX Nifty is Trading near 11500. Yesterday I mentioned that my view was Bearish but it went wrong.  Nifty however took Resistance near 11500 but it's a matter of time till it breaks out. I have changed my view to Bullish during the day Yesterday. A Trader should know when to change views and not be stubborn to keep Trading based on the same old Practice. Bank Nifty is carrying Nifty & Building Strength in the Markets. FII's were Net Buyers Yesterday & DII's were Net Sellers. Everybody is wondering what's taking this market higher. Economy not doing well , Businesses not Performing well due to Lockdown. So why are Markets going higher. I have answered this in my Q&A Session done this weekend. Reason is Interest Rates which is leading to big Liquidity in Stock Markets. Bank Interest rates have been lowered. Fixed Deposit in

Pre - Market Analysis (24th August 2020)

US markets ended Positive on Friday. U.S Markets are making fresh highs almost on daily basis now. Asian markets are mostly positive. SGX Nifty is higher by about 15 Points. Friday , the Markets have opened with a huge gap up but the gap ups are Unable to Sustain. This is a no follow through market. There is no follow through & it's lagging. Also , Markets are Trading within a tight range. On Friday , Nifty Traded in the range of just 40-50 Points. This is because VIX was below 20. I feel that India VIX was made a double bottom near 19.5 and has bottomed out. FII's were net Buyers whereas DII's were net sellers on Friday. Monthly expiries are always Volatile. A big move is expected on any side of monthly Expiry. My view is Bearish with a Stoploss of 11500. Pharma Sector looks topped out and not much steam left there. Auto Stocks are Outperforming and may continue to do so. Bank Nifty might continue to Underperform the Nifty. Nifty might Trade between 11340 t

Pre - Market Analysis (21st August 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. This Market is changing trend with each passing day. After FED minutes everyone was Bearish but market retrased again. Asian Markets are also higher. SGX Nifty is up by 100 Points. 11500 is the area where highest open interest in option chain Which means highest call writing . So this will act as a Resistance unless people start shifting over. I am Expecting a correction in our Markets now. A correction of 200-300 Points. Reliance is below 20 DMA. Markets are at all time highs. So there is a good risk reward in this trade. Shorting near 11400-11450 would have a risk of 75-100 Points but if it works it can fetch you 200-300 Points. Trading is all about Analysing risk & reward. Nothing is certain here. If you want to be right every single time , trading is not for you. You cannot be right every single time. 11500 is the Stoploss for Short Trade. I might be wrong also , so trade on your own risk. Consult your Financial Advisor and Trade

Pre - Market Analysis (20th August 2020)

US markets closed Slightly Negative Yesterday. Down Futures are now down more than 150 Points. Asian Markets are all Negative  SGX Nifty down 140 Points. Reason is U.S Fed take on the Markets. U.S Fed Minutes Triggered selling. U.S Fed presented a Cautious to negative stance on the Economy , which is triggering sell off. AGR case hearing at 2 pm today. These 2 events leading to sell off. As we are at intermediate highs it is making bigger. FII's were net Buyers Yesterday whereas DII's were net sellers. Apple becomes the first company to cross 2 Trillion $ market cap. Today looks to be a very Volatile Expiry. Many news flow coming and most of it are on Negative side. Usually a big move is there on Expiry days. And this time it would be Interesting to see where it comes by. View has become Negative for short term. Nifty might Trade between 11140-11340 today.

Pre - Market Analysis (19th August 2020)

US markets closed Slightly Positive U.S Markets have been Trading at life time highs now. Asian markets are in Green. SGX Nifty is up by 50 points. From Fridays Reversal we are up more than 300 Points. Buy the Dip, Buy the Dip is what I have been recommending. Currently we are Trading at fresh Intermediate highs. Nifty is just 8-10% away from all time highs. Bank Nifty is way below. Catch up rally in Bank Nifty is Expected. Yesterday Bank Nifty Outperformed Nifty. 11350 was a big Resistance for our Markets we have closed above it Yesterday. FII's have bought more than 1000 Crores Yesterday. DII's have been saying Crash Will happen , Crash will happen. Nifty will go to 6000 -5000 and they are the one's missing out. Short Sellers will add as fuel to this Markets now. Mentioned this to paid Members. Now we are in an OPEN SKY. Open Sky means Markets can go anywhere from here. I won't be Surprised if we get a 150-200 point rally on Nifty this Expiry.

Pre - Market Analysis (18th August 2020)

US markets ended flat. U.S Markets have been Consolidating from last week. Asian markets are also Flat. SGX Nifty is now flat near 11270. Yesterday I mentioned that Friday yas just a shake off and the Trend would bail us out. Yesterday Markets Consolidated until 3 pm. Bears tried their best to pull Markets Lower but Couldn't. Finally in last 30 mins we Witnessed a good short covering. August Month has been a Month of Consolidation. Nifty has been Moving all over the place but mean is about 11200. Expecting Markets to Consolidate with a big Positive Bias. Reliance Underperformed Yesterday and in Spite of that Nifty closed 0.5% higher. This shows that Broader markets have also started to perform. Midcaps have been Outperforming since the March crash. Small caps too have been in a league of their own. Underperformer in this Market is Bank Nifty. Nifty is just 7-8% from all time highs. But Bank Nifty is more than 50% away from it's all time highs. HDFC Bank after Aditya

Pre - Market Analysis (17th August 2020)

U.S Markets ended Positive on Friday. Asian Markets are also Trading higher. SGX Nifty is up by 90+ Points. On Friday , Markets fell Suddenly. There was no news , no Announcement but yet Market fell 250 Points from days high. This could be due to AGR event Expectations. Markets owe no Obligation to anybody. Each and everyone just has to look through their own eyes what looks good for them. According to me it was a Negative sensing for the event. It was a big shake up for the Bulls. Falls like these are a good Opportunity to build long Positions specially in a Bull Market. Every dip is a buying Opportunity. Trends don't change so easily and Quickly. Over the Weekend , everywhere people were Bearish. Markets would crash , 7500 to be tested again. Just after a 200 Point fall , talking about a crash is Stupidity. Markets have Rallied a lot and these sharp dips will come in between. Short Sellers will add more fuel to these Markets  One Negative point is Reliance is being pu

Pre - Market Analysis (14th August 2020)

US markets closed flat , the same has been going on from quite a long time now. Asian Markets are Mindly Positive. SGX Nifty is Trading around 11340. August upto now seems to be a Month for Consolidation. Markets have been Consolidating since last 2 weeks. Nifty has been Trading within 300 Point Range. With AGR news Postponed there is no major event for Markets. Nifty & Bank Nifty is Consolidating but Midcaps are Outperforming. Midcaps are in a Bull Market of their own. Investors should be very Careful here. As Good Quality Stocks are not Performing now from some time ,investors make the mistake of loading up the Portfolio with Junk Midcap Stocks. When Markets fall these stocks will fall rapidly while Quality Stocks won't fall much. So Investors should always stick to Quality stocks. Bank Nifty is showing some strength but all rallies are being sold into there. From few weeks Nifty is opening gap up and selling off during the day. This seems to be picture. FII's

Pre - Market Analysis (13th August 2020)

US markets closed at all time highs Yesterday. Asian Markets are Mildly Negative. SGX Nifty is down 20 Points. Yesterday , GDP numbers in U.S were negative and dropped by more than 20% which Points a recession out there. Markets are Ignoring all these news and are racing ahead. Markets & Economy are 2 Different things. Index is filled with Quality Heavyweight stocks and they perform well in bad times. So Economy might Seem bad but Markets might go higher. India VIX is below 21 now. Premiums are very low now. Sold 11400 CE &11200 PE at ₹20 each. (Today Expiry). Both closed at 13 and now Expecting both to open at single Digits . A good news for the Bulls is Bank Nifty is Beginning to perform. Bank Nifty has Sustained above 22k and is slowly gaining momentum. But commenting anything about Bank Nifty is not at all Possible. It has the Power to move 1000 Points in a day. FII's were net Buyers Yesterday but DII's figure continue to be Negative. Last 2 Expirys mark

Pre - Market Analysis (12th August 2020)

US markets closed Lower after 7 days of Outperformance. This must be a Normal Profit booking as they hit Fresh all time highs Yesterday. Asian Markets are mostly lower. SGX Nifty is down 100+ Points. Previous Metals like Gold Silver were all down Yesterday. Gold was down 5% and silver was down 12%. It's Amazing how one Night can change total set up. But still I feel that Trends do not change in one day. Our trend is Bullish and every dip is buying Opportunity till the Trend bends. Markets have been Moving very Volatile between 11100 & 11400 and expiring near 11200. 11200 seems to be the mean for Markets now. Markets going everywhere but coming back to 11200. Yesterdays upmove was Majorly because of Bank Nifty & Reliance. Reliance reversed back from lower end of it's range of 2100. Markets recovered from there after touching to 11300 Yesterday. Markets will give these moves and keep bears active and Eventually trap them. So the best idea is to follow the Tren

Pre - Market Analysis (11th August 2020)

US markets were Consolidating. Asian Markets are Positive. SGX Nifty is up 70 points. Markets broke out of 11300 Yesterday but due to Postponement again in Supreme Court Verdict profit booking came. Today again we are going to open above 11300. Bank Nifty is going to open above 22k. What's more important is follow through. Once we get follow through above these levels the target for Nifty is 11500. Im selling Put Options Aggressively. Every dip is a buying Opportunity. This is a Bull Market rally which is confusing many people. But sometimes the best way is to not to think much and follow markets. Markets will give us a sign when they start reversing. Until then it's better to stay with the Trend and follow it. Titan results were not upto Street Expectations and were poor. Axis Bank and ICICI Bank have done QIP and raised money. Whether markets take it as positive or Negative is to be seen today. Supreme Court Verdict is likely to become a Non Event now after so muc

Pre - Market Analysis (10th August 2020)

US markets ended flat on Friday. Asian markets are also Flat. SGX Nifty is Trading around 11200. From last 2 weeks Markets have been Trading within a fixed range. Downside level is around 10900 & on the upper side it's around 11250. Within this 350 point Range Markets have been very Volatile and are giving big Swings. Big move is expected only after this range breaks. Either on the Upside or Downside we can expect big Moves. Today is a very major event lined up for our Markets . Supreme Court AGR Case event. This event was Postponed since few Months but today we might get final hearing. This event is important as few banks are also involved in it . Bank Nifty has about 20-25% weight in Nifty so this should be kept in mind. Markets are likely to be highly Volatile today. With VIX falling in last few days there was hardly any scope for Short Straddle. Today if VIX rises I Might take a short Straddle of 11200 Nifty August Expiry. Another Important event today is Titan

Pre - Market Analysis (7th August 2020)  U S Markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are Positive. SGX Nifty is down by about 20 Points. U.S Markets are just a percent away from new highs. This is Clearly a Standout. In the Month of March Markets were crashing but they have recovered with a faster pace. U.S Jobs data is an Important event to watch out for today. Also a Big STIMULUS is around the Corner in U.S. This will have a major impact on the Markets. This Year there is U.S Elections & Trump will not let Markets fall. If U.S Markets don't fall we don't fall. We don't go up in the same pace as U.S Markets because we have our local issues like banks etc. We should head higher Slowly. There was a heavy Volatility Yesterday. Bank Nifty at one point was 400 Point higher and the entire rally was sold into within minutes. This shows that the Banking index and stocks is the Weakest link in this Market. Nifty will continue to Outperform as Nifty is married to Global Market

Pre - Market Analysis (6th August 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. S&P 500 is just a percent away from it's all time highs. We are almost 1000 Points away from all time highs. Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is totally flat. Yesterday, our markets were highly volatile. Wednesdays are typically very high volatile days. After a big Gap up Yesterday Markets Witnessed big selling pressure. After that it Traded flat for the whole day. As Expected Yesterday Markets Consolidated for almost the whole day. Reliance also Witnessed big profit booking after touching it's fresh all time highs. Markets will be closely tracking Lupin results today. But most important is RBI policy at 11.30 AM. Markets are speculating as to what is RBI trying to come up with today. Will RBI extend Moratorium? Will RBI cut interest rates? Etc etc. Talk of the Town is RBI Policy. Interest rates are already very low and it seems less probable to reduce them more . Moratorium if extended can break the back of the Banks. RBI h

Pre - Market Analysis (5th August 2020)

US markets closed higher Yesterday. Asian Markets are Mindly in Green. SGX Nifty is down by about 40 points. Yesterday our Markets have Rallied about 200 Points. Rally was mainly because of 2 stocks. Reliance and HDFC Bank. RBI Approval for New Chairman in HDFC Bank Triggered rally. Reliance was up 7% Yesterday Majorly due to Short covering and some deal wins news round the corner. Markets have taken support the Important level of 10850 which I mentioned in the previous blog. From there it has reversed significantly and Rallied by about 200+ Points. Expecting a bit of Stabilisation & Consolidation today. RBI Policy is due Tomorrow and that would be an Important event to watch out for. Yesterday Surprisingly FII's turned Buyers whereas DII's remain sellers. Bank Nifty has not Participated in the rally yet. Yesterday Majorly due to HDFC Bank there was a big rally in the Banking stocks. After this Big rally the Question is what more from here? I expect some Consoli

Pre - Market Analysis (4th August 2020)

US markets closed on a Positive Note Yesterday. Asian Markets are all Trading Positive. SGX Nifty is up by about 40 Points. Yesterday our Markets fell below 11k and Witnessed a Breakdown. Trend looks Bearish as of now. Few Index Heavyweights on the Back of which Markets were running have started to correct. Reliance , HDFC Bank are down more than 10%. Aditya Puri News impact seems to have been effecting HDFC Bank a lot. Amit Shah (Home Minister) has been tested Positive for Corona Virus. Now Markets may be afraid that due to him testing Positive all the Politicians including PM are in risk of testing Positive. India is Slowly to be the First Country with highest Corona Virus cases. This could dent a severe impact on the Economy. Long Term investors should start booking profits in their Portfolio. Markets were Rallied Excellently and now is the time to apply Caution. Auto Sales have been better than expected. India's Monsoon has been more than 10% than Normal. India is a

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd August 2020)

US markets were Trading Negative on Friday but in last 45 minutes U.S Markets closed in Green from being down more than 300 points. Asian Markets are all over the place and are Trading Mixed. SGX Nifty is Trading Negative by 60 Points. First thing which im noticing in all the Markets is contraction of Markets. Contraction of Markets means a few stocks performing well , mostly index heavy weights. U.S Markets the highest Weightage is of Amazon and it has come up with great results  Indian Markets , Reliance has more than 15% weightage. Due to Reliance itself , our Markets have Witnessed big rally in the Month of July. So these handful of index Heavyweights are only Rallying. Other way of looking at it is Bank Nifty seems to be very Weak. Banking stocks havent joined the rally yet. So Bank Nifty is a major index to measure about Economy. Because of handful of companies Nifty crossed 11k. Auto Sales have imported Considerably and all the companies have posted very good sales n

The Power of Compounding

How much would you think a penny doubled everyday for 30 days would end up being just guessing? $10 dollars or $100 dollars maybe? How about over $5 million dollars? How is this possible? Through the power of compounding.  “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it.” – Albert Einstein is reported to have said.  A penny doubled everyday for 30 days…. Compounding capital is one of the greatest tools a trader or investor can use to create wealth. It is one of Warren Buffett’s Holy Grails of investing success. The principle of compounding is that you allow your money to make more money. Eventually your money is making more money than you could ever earn through working. While the growth of the doubling of a penny can be surprising and not intuitive there are ways to really compound capital with investing and trading over the long term at less impressive rates but still end up with a lot.