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Showing posts from December, 2021

Pre - Market Analysis (30th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday. Right now U.S futures & Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is at 17200. Dow Jones is just few 100 points away from all time high. Yesterday as well we had a lack lusture trading day. As it's year end , the Volumes are very little. Due to these less volumes there's not much movement in Markets. Market was within 17200 to 17300 until 3 pm for most of the time. After 3 pm there was a sudden downmove. Nifty fell 70-80 points whereas Bank Nifty fell 300 points. Today's expiry is expected to be rangebound as well. Range for today could be 17150 to 17300. 17200 PE had the highest open interest on Tuesday. Now 17300 CE has added huge amount of open interest. This is going to be a stiff resistance for the day. Bank Nifty has also witnessed aggressive call writing at all the higher strikes. Upside and downside both seem to be quite limited for today. But we never know , in this low volume environment one small big move can create tr

Pre - Market Analysis (29th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday. Right now U.S futures & Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is at 17200. Dow Jones is just few 100 points away from all time high. Yesterday after many many trading days we had stability. Nifty for the whole day traded within just 70-100 point range. Same goes with Bank Nifty as well. Yesterday was a very quiet and a flat day on the indices. 17200 PE added more than 30L contracts yesterday. It closed near 50 points yesterday. So these writers are safe upto 17150. As long as we hold 17150 there should be some positivity. Once we break 17150 then we could have more downfall as these writers would run for cover. Surprisingly the premiums are too less now. 17200 PE which is just 30 points away from spot is at 50 when we have 2 days left  Such sort of premiums are generally on Wednesday afternoon. Reason is the India VIX. India VIX has crashed and that's why premiums are dropping significantly. FII's for the first time after 32 trad

Pre - Market Analysis (28th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. S&P 500 hit a fresh all time high. SGX Nifty is trading at 17200. Both the U.S Market futures and Asian markets are slightly lower now. Yesterday it was a highly volatile day. Nifty fell nearly to 16800 in first hour. Then shot up nearly 250 points from lows to close at 17100. Today another 100 point gap up is on cards. So the Market is making life highly difficult for positional traders. Intraday traders finding it a bit easier to handle the same. FII's have sold just over 1000 crores yesterday. Because of year end there are very low volumes of indices and stocks  Any small sell / buy order is creating large moves. RBL Bank panic caused the first hour selling yesterday. But immediately the Market saw some stability at lower levels. This huge gap up today I don't think could be sustained. 17150 , 17200 is an immediate resistance so this should negate the rally. If we sustain over these levels for 30-45 mins then we could cont

Pre - Market Analysis (27th December 2021)

U.S Markets were closed on Friday. Most of the Global Markets were shut due to Christmas and New Year Celebrations. SGX Nifty is down 30 points. On Friday our Markets were under severe pressure. As soon as we opened , there was a big selling Nifty broke 17k. 16900 was tested and there was a good short covering. Everything happened with Volatility and VIX was higher 3%. I've seen many times in the past , as soon as VIX is near 15 it goes higher. VIX has not been below 15 in past 4 Months. This time as well im expecting the same. Both the FII's and DII's were net sellers on Friday. Though the amounts and volumes were less as it might be due to profit booking. Im expecting the Volatility to continue for December last week. 4 trading sessions are left and 17k strike option has the highest open interest. 300 was the combined premium so range comes between 16700 to 17300. 17150 is the 20 day DMA and is likely to act as resistance  Friday's low of 16900 should come

Pre - Market Analysis (24th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday. U S markets are closed today due to Holiday week of Christmas. Right now Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is at 17150. Yesterday after many trading sessions for the first time we had a stable Expiry. Nifty traded flat and within a range. The most important factor is India VIX. India VIX has crashed 12% in last 2 trading sessions. Now India VIX is close to 15. India VIX close to 15 indicates a stable Market. With not much big moves in store. Anyway due to a holiday week we would not be having much volumes today. Yesterday we had the lowest volumes of last 1 year. Hence Market was flat. Premiums are already too low now as we are in the final week of monthly Expiry. Time decay would also be fast considering 5 trading sessions left  IT stocks are looking quite strong. Infy and Tech M have hit fresh all time high yesterday. The magnitude of FII selling has also come down in last 2 trading sessions. They have sold for less than 1000 crores i

Pre - Market Analysis (20th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. Asian Markets were also lower. Right now Dow futures and Asian markets are down. SGX Nifty is down 100 points indicating opening around 16900. If one Remembers , last time we closed near 16900. The next day we had a huge gap up and a big rally from there. Today we are likely to open near 16900. 16800 is a short term low on Nifty. We had made a panic bottom around these levels previously. The Momentum is quite strong towards the downside. Many Index heavy weights are below it's 200 DMA. Bank Nifty already below it's 200 DMA. Trading below 200 DMA indicates a short term bear Market. Everything isn't worse. Today's first hour is crutial. If we sustain today's low and start to recover during the day then we might have double bottom at 16800. Which is a Possibility. Purely from risk reward type it's advisable to exit short Positions at open. Buy trade with a stoploss of 16800 offers a good risk reward  Nifty might Trade

Pre - Market Analysis (17th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Bank of England hiked the interest rate due to Pandemic. U.S reported highest number of COVID cases yesterday. Even though Accenture reported stunning results yesterday , Nasdaq was down 2%. Yesterday expiry showed the poor performance of our Markets. There was a huge gap up but it was sold into heavily. Nifty couldn't even hold onto the gains for an hour  SGX Nifty right now is at 17290. Today the most important level to watch out is yesterday low and high. Yesterday low was about 17190 and high was 17370 thereabouts. Within these levels Nifty would be in a rangebound territory. Once if any of these levels gets taken out and it sustains then we can expect a trending move. India VIx was down 8% yesterday and option premiums are too low. Specially the Put option premiums are too low. No point in selling put options at such low premiums when FII's are all out to sell Indian markets. Yesterday last 30 minutes buying helped Nifty to r

Pre - Market Analysis (16th December 2021)

U.S Markets until 1 pm IST were trading lower yesterday. After 1 pm there was a short covering rally and Dow closed 300+ points higher. Fed Decision was as per Expectation. Most Importantly , U.S VIX crashed 12%. Due to this Fed Uncertainty VIX has increased in India as well. Yesterday in last 30 mins Put option premiums shot up heavily. Now as the Uncertainty is over , premiums have been reduced in U.S. It was a relief rally yesterday in U.S Now U.S Markets may move towards Santa rally. SGX Nifty is at 17350. Most Important Question is will the Gap up sustain? 17350-17375 is the key today. If we sustain above these levels for 30 mins then likely we will be having a follow through kinda day. Else FII's may sell into the same later during the day. 17300 CE added huge open interest yesterday. Hence if Market starts sustaining these sellers would be in trouble and would propell Market even higher. First 30 minutes no trade should be taken and once should be obs

Pre - Market Analysis (15th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now Dow futures and Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is at 17300. Ahead of FOMC meeting Market is under pressure. Markets can handle good news , bad news but cannot handle uncertainty. U.S Markets have fallen 4% in anticipation of Fed meeting so I feel negative news has been factored in. Today we might have some upside in U.S Markets. Fed has always been pro Market after the Lehmann brothers collapse. It's less likely they would come out with something very negative and disrupt the Markets. FII's have sold for 750 crores yesterday and hence Market was stable. FII's will be going inactive in last part of December. So we can expect volumes to reduce going ahead. Today we can expect an inside day within yesterday range on Nifty. Yesterday Midcaps and small caps closed in green. Only due to FII selling large caps were under pressure. 17400 CE added huge open interest yesterday. So Nifty might face stiff resistance in the r

Pre - Market Analysis (14th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower yesterday. Right now Dow futures and Asian markets are mixed. SGX Nifty is at 17300. Ahead of FOMC meeting Market is under pressure. Markets can handle good news , bad news but cannot handle uncertainty. Yesterday Nifty fell from high of 17630 to 17350. This is a big fall Intraday. FII's are the reason behind the same. Yesterday FII's have sold for more than 2700 crores. Nifty closed below it's important support of 17400. Now next support is at 17200-17250. 17600 CE has the highest open interest in weekly options. Markets would continue to remain volatile until clarity emerges. Yesterday the Broader Market was doing well. Advance- Decline ratio was favourable and Midcaps were slightly lower  Only the Index heavyweights were under pressure. It was a concentrated selling by FII's in index heavyweights. Nifty might Trade between 17200 to 17500 today. One can look to buy this gap down with a stoploss of 17200. stockmarketadvisory.in

Pre - Market Analysis (13th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. Right now Dow futures and Asian markets are higher. SGX Nifty is at 17660 now. On Friday U.S Inflation data was announced. The Actual Figure came at 6.8%. Expected Inflation rate was also at 6.8%. This was the highest Inflation in last 40 years of U.S history. Experts were pointing out that if this Inflation rate is announced then the Markets would crash. All The growth stocks would be hammered. But on Friday the Markets decided to go higher. So Markets can be Irrational until one goes bankrupt. Maybe the Market participants are expecting that due to this Inflation percentage , fed might delay tapering. Also Fed might postpone interest rate hike. On Wednesday we have a very important Fed meeting. Market would be keenly watching this event and Markets might remain jittery till Wednesday. Right now Nifty is Trading violently between 17400 & 17600. For 2 Consecutive days Nifty has found support at 17400. 17600 has been a resistance and

Pre - Market Analysis (10th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. Dow futures and Asian markets are mixed now. SGX Nifty is trading at 17500. Today U.S inflation data is about to come in U.S and there's why some pressure exists. Yesterday after many days Market were a little stable. Before Yesterday Nifty and Bank Nifty have been making 2% moves on daily basis. Yesterday things seem to have settled a bit. FII's have sold more than what DII's have bought yesterday. But due to Expiry related issues etc Market might have been stable. Last 2 consecutive Friday's markets closed at the lowest point of the day. This week as well we are sitting on huge gains on both indices. So people would like to take off some money to go into the weekend. Also there is uncertainty in Global Markets so that is general. Evergrande , one of the World's largest real estate developer defaulted in their loan and is on the verge of Bankrupcy. Need to closely track the Developments here. 17600 is a hurdle for now

Pre - Market Analysis (9th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed slightly higher yesterday. Dow futures and Asian markets are mixed now. SGX Nifty is trading at 17550. Yesterday we had a big short covering rally in our Markets. Nifty has come near it's higher range of 17500-17600. Im not much hopeful of today's gap up and I feel it should be sold into durring the day. Markets have rallied on the back of short covering and positive Global Cues. Now it's the time for Consolidation / Profit booking. 17400 PE has the highest open interest for today's weekly expiry. This should act as a strong support and if this breaks we might see much more downside from here. 17530 is the 20 DMA for Nifty and 17600 Is the higher range so if one is long the profits should be taken off here. FII selling has reduced but the numbers are not that great yet. FII long position is at 73% which suggests a profit taking zone. Also Yesterday FII's have net sold in Cash and Futures Market. Today we might have a Volatile expiry co

Pre - Market Analysis (8th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed 480 points higher yesterday. Dow futures and Asian markets are mixed now. SGX Nifty is trading at 17340. Yesterday we had a big short covering rally in our Markets. Some news paper reports suggest that FII's have received legal notices related to tax issues. Also they are not happy with T+1 settlement rule to be implemented by SEBI. Hence FII's are selling in such huge quantities. DII's are ready to support the Market. This is creating some high Volatility and making trading almost impossible. Yesterday we had 300 point rally in spite of which FII's have sold 2500+ crores. At any point of time again this selling may resume. In such Volatility it's better to stay out or to trade with 1/5th of your normal volume. Bank Nifty has shot up 1000 points yesterday and is supporting Nifty as well. In 2019 , similar situation happened and FII's started to sell aggressively. Nifty fell from 12000 to 10700 is no time. It was a mini Bear Market

Pre - Market Analysis (7th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed 600 points higher yesterday. Dow futures and Asian markets are mixed now. SGX Nifty is trading at 17040 now. Markets has been making huge swings now. Just imagine , Friday's high was 17500 for Nifty and yesterday low was 16900. That's a 600 Point fall in 2 trading sessions. This selling is not on the back of any negative news nor on the back of negative global cues. Many are contemplating that this fall is due to Omicron Variant scare. I don't think so. Omicron Variant as many agencies pointed out is less deadly than Delta Variant. The biggest problem now for the Market is FII selling. FII's have now sold for 85000 crores in last 1 Month. Yesterday I expected a selling of 5000 crores but it has come at 3400 crores only. One shocking point is that only 1 stock of Nifty 50 closed higher yesterday. Rest all 49 stocks closed in Red. Until this FII selling goes on this is a sell on rally Market. Rallies and pull backs will come. Those are oppor

Pre - Market Analysis (6th December 2021)

U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. U.S Tech Index Nasdaq closed significantly lower. This is due to the Jobs number reported were quite low compared to expectations. On Friday our Indian Markets also witnessed profit booking from highs. Nifty fell 300 points from 17500. Markets from November have been quite Volatile. Nifty is making almost 200-300 points on a daily basis. Reversals are happening with extreme speed and Volatility. This is a ranging Market but with a huge Volatility. This is because both the FII's and DII's are in a tug of war. DII's buy to support the Market but FII's keep selling. Friday all the commodities and all the Cryptos fell. Right now Asian markets and Dow futures are higher. SGX Nifty is up 50 points. We might open flat today. RBI governer conference on Wednesday regarding interest rates is a very important event to focus. I don't think Market is fearing Omicron. Many reports have suggested Omicron to be less deadly than Delta

Pre - Market Analysis (3rd December 2021)

U.S Markets closed 650 points higher yesterday. Omicron fears seems to be subsiding now in the Markets. Dow Futures are Asian markets are slightly lower. SGX Nifty is down 30-40 Points. Last 2 days been a positive surprise for the Bulls. Markets have rallied 400 points in last 2 trading sessions. Yesterday last 1 hour huge short covering scaled up Nifty to 17400. FII's were net sellers even yesterday but sold for less than 1000 crores. Is everything fine and are we out of the woods yet? I don't think so. We have multiple resistances for Nifty near 17450 , 17500 and 17600. 17600 is the most stiff resistance of all and Nifty has reversed 2-3 times from there in the past. 17200 is a good support now. So now the range seems to be 17200 to 17500. Markets are quite volatile and there have been large moves almost on an everyday basis. 17000 PE continues to have the highest open interest in monthly options. Larger range would be 17000 to 17600. Market seems to be overextend

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd December 2021)

U.S Markets closed 450 points lower yesterday. Surprisingly , Asian markets are outperforming Global Markets. Right now Dow futures and Asian markets are higher. Yesterday U.S Markets were trading higher for most part. News broke out regarding an Omicron case found in California. This caused huge panic selling. U.S VIX crossed 30 yesterday. VIX above 30 is a red flag and one has to be careful. Yesterday for the first time after many sessions we had a stable closing. Bank Nifty closed strong and showed some momentum. Nifty at one point witnessed selling but was bought into from lows. Smart money has been shifting from Global Markets to Asian markets. Asian Countries haven't discovered an Omicron case yet. I expect Markets to consolidate for some time now. 17000 to 17300 could be the range. Unless any fresh news or triggers are emerged this range could play out for 2-3 trading sessions. Bank Nifty looks strong and 36000 is a good support. Put option premiums are quite hig

Pre - Market Analysis (1st December 2021)

U.S Markets closed 600 points lower yesterday. Surprisingly , Asian markets are outperforming Global Markets. All Asian market futures are trading higher. SGX Nifty is up 60 points. Yesterday most of the Retailers have been kicked out of the Market. Such was the Volatility being witnessed yesterday. Market is throwing out most of the people now. In First 15 minutes Nifty rallied 150 points yesterday and about 300 points in first hour. The pace and momentum at which this happened was mind boggling. Joe Biden announced that lockdowns were not needed currently. That bought optimism yesterday. Then came the news of Moderna. Moderna announced that Vaccines are less effective against Omicron Variant. This led to a bloodbath in Global Markets and we started to fall off the highs. Things get even worser when Jerome Powell said that Inflation is not transitory and we have to live with it. He gave an indirect indication regarding interest rate increase and reduction of Bond Purchase.