- US markets moved more than 4% positive or negative for 6 consecutive sessions in 1929 Great Depression.
- Yesterday it moved 4%, for the 6th consecutive session & now DOW futures are down more than 4%.
- This crisis is bigger than 2008 Financial crisis.
- SGX Nifty is trading between 9000 and 9100.
- In three trading sessions, FIIs have sold for US$2 billion.
- That is a huge selling.
- DIIs are actively supporting the markets.
- Option premiums are very high as India VIX keep increasing.
- Nifty 7700PE, least strike available, trading around Rs 40 even for tomorrow expiry.
- Bank Nifty 20100PE, least strike available, trading around Rs 290 for tomorrows expiry.
- I do not remember seeing this kind of premiums even in 2008. People are BEARISH to their neck.
- But in F&O, data looks encouraging as FIIs are covering their short positions, writing puts.
- As of now, SGX Nifty down suddendly to 8900.
- Continue to watch DOW futures, if that goes to lower circuits, more panic will come in India.
- On any bounce, time to unwind long positions.
- We may be in for a prolonged bear market.
- Things may change if Corona Virus disappears but this may take lot of time.
- Until then it's better to be Cautious & On any bounce, sell Call options, in small quantities.
- Yesterday we held 9000 levels on Nifty for 3/4ths of the day but in last 30 mins huge selling pressure led to break down of 9000 on Nifty. More Weakness likely to appear on both the Indices.
- Corona Virus is a Big issue that whole World is facing now & problems will keep Accentuating in near future.
- Rather than Banning Short Selling , advice for SEBI would be to reduce Trading hours.
- In 2008 , all the Indices fell by more than 50% , Nifty is down 30% from all time highs.
- If this is 2008 or much worse than 2008 , we can witness Trading near 7000-6500 levels in coming Future.
- I have just been selling Call Options for now.
- Premiums are attractive & being Expiry Tomorrow the decay will be very Quick.
- I do not see any better way than Selling Call Options in these Kind of Volatile Markets
- India has 140 reported Cases of Corona Virus whereas U.S has 5000 reported Cases of the Same. Being the 2nd most Populous Country having just 140 cases creates uneasyness.
- With only 13 lakh people tested we needs to improve our Testing Mechanisms so that we tackle this Immediately or this can cause a scare in coming time.
- Upcoming 2 Weeks are highly Crutial for India. Trend shows that Corona Virus is at its Peak in 4th & 5th week & India is Approaching into the same.
- Just read some reports and got to know that after Development of VACCINE it takes atleast 3 Months to test the same. So Vaccine Cure for Corona Virus is a long way ahead.
- 8600 is the next Support on Nifty & it's just a matter of time it gets taken away.
- Try to sell into Rallies / Pull Backs they will come. Selling into a 200-300 Points gapdown creates high risk.
U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Most importantly , S&P 500 VIX crashed 10%. There was huge Volatility in global markets due to Fed event. Markets remain volatile only when they have topped out or have bottomed out. Right now I feel we have bottomed out at 16850. Asian markets are slightly lower now. Dow futures are lower. SGX Nifty is at 17500. Finally , the most awaited day has come. Budget 2022 is going to be presented today. Expectations are of a good and stable budget. Reasons are the Elections coming up and LIC IPO in March. Govt very well knows if LIC IPO has to go through , Market sentiment has to be good. Without good market spending it would be very difficult for IPO to go through. Market had already fallen a lot before the budget. Although we have rallied in last 2 days but still we have some upside left. Though I feel it's not favourable to chase today's gap up. Today's gap up is a good opportunity to book profits those who carried longs. Bud
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