Skip to main content

Pre - Market Analysis (30th Jan 2022)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday.
2. Right now , dow futures are lower.
3. Asian markets are mixed.
4. SGX Nifty is up 30-50 Points.
5. There's no point discussing Global markets today.
6. As we are dealing with our own local issues as of now.
7. The talk of the town is Adani Group.
8. Every stock Market participant during last 2 days have not spent as much time with their wife /gf /husband /bf as they have spent on researching Adani stocks.
9. They shouldn't have wasted so much time in research and should've spent their time with loved ones.
10. As Ultimately my Pre Market report would clear all.
11. Now , the Adani stock price has gone below the FPO price.
12. FPO price is in the range of 3100-3200 and stock price is around 2800 
13. Who will subscribe to FPO when they can buy shares much cheaper from the Market?
14. Also over the weekend Adani has come up with a 450 page report addressing one by one the allegations made by Hindenberg. 
15. I haven't gone through it in detailed , and had an overview of it.
16. If Adani somehow manages to lock their shares in upper circuit today.
17. The sentiment around people would change.
18. Now the game is only about sentiment  
19. As in the short run Market runs on sentiment.
20. If the shares ain't locked in upper circuit during first 30 minutes then there would again be a free fall.
21. Another problem which the group has is of pledged shares.
22. This group has taken loans from Bank and pledged their shares.
23. Say you pledge shares of 100rs , you get a loan of 80rs.
24. As long as shares are above 80rs bank doesn't react.
25. As it comes to 80 the Bank starts to sell shares in open market as they do not wish to risk their money.
26. So if shares keep falling today as well Banks will be afraid and that will trigger margin call.
27. I get a sense today that Adani shares could be locked in upper circuit.
28. There would be Management appearances over Media trying to gain trust of investors etc.
29. If it isn't locked in upper circuit today , then get ready for a major problem and collapse in markets.
30. Nifty might trade between 17400 to 17700 today.


Popular posts from this blog

Pre- Market Analysis (5th May 2022)

U.S Markets closed higher yesterday. Asian markets are higher. SGX nifty is up 150 points. Yesterday was a very tricky and unexpected session. As soon as Market opened there was a continuous selling. Market was falling left , right and center without taking any support. I was wondering why is the Market going against the global cues Then we got the news about RBI Governer press conference. So some informed people already knew about this rate hike. Hence there was a sudden selling in the markets. RBI hiked repo rate by 40 basis points and Cash Reverse ratio by 50 basis points. Repo rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from RBI. When the rate is increased banks borrow money at higher cost and in turn loans also get costlier. This slows down the growth and liquidity in the Market temporarily. Cash reserve ratio is the interest free deposit money which banks have to keep with RBI. RBI uses that money without having to pay any interest on it. Increasing CRR means RBI is

Pre - Market Analysis (18th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed lower on Thursday. Asian markets are all lower. Dow futures are lower right now. SGX Nifty is down 250 points. Indicating a huge gap down at the open. Reason is the Global markets underperformance plus not so good corporate results. Infosys has disappointed and missed earnings by street estimates. Infy ADR was down 9% in last 2 trading sessions in U.S Hdfc bank also missed earnings but asset quality has been improved. Today we can expect huge gap down openimg in infy. Hdfc bank has limited downside left because it has already fallen a lot after the merger news. 17150-17200 is a strong support on Nifty and this is where 200 DMA kicks in. If you are a Bull this is a large support area. Markets are oversold and this offers a good opportunity to go long. Nect support comes in at 17k. If global markets keep declining then no support would work. Bank Nifty 200 DMA kicks in at 36800. Bank Nifty looks much stronger than Nifty currently as IT isn't included in

Pre - Market Analysis (11th April 2022)

U.S Markets closed mixed on Friday. Dow Jones closed slightly higher. S&P 500 was flat and Nasdaq is very weak. Right now , Dow futures are lower. SGX Nifty is down 100 points. So we are in for a gap down opening today. Friday was a quite interesting day. As expected , RBI policy was a status quo. Nifty broke Thursday low of 17640 and traded below for quite some time. And then for a short squeeze. All the shorts were trapped and we had a big rally. Most importantly , India VIX was down 7% on Friday. I expect markets to consolidate between 17600 to 18100 for a while. I do not see a reason to be excessively bearish now. Markets went from 17700 to 18100 because of hdfc twins. And then crashed to 17600 because of these both stocks. These both stocks have given up all of their gains and are back to Pre merger levels. There is very limited downside now for these stocks and expecting these stocks to bottom out soon 17500 to 17600 is a strong buy zone on Nifty. Also earnings se