Skip to main content

Option Greeks Explained (Vega)

Options Vega Explained

Option contract prices will increase as the probabilities of them expiring in-the-money are greater and will go down as the probabilities of them expiring in-the-money decreases. As options get closer to being in-the-money they capture more of their underlying assets move, as they get farther away from being in-the-money they capture less of their underlying assets move. High volatility increases the odds of an option having the ability to be in-the-money on expiration. Extreme volatility also increases the risk of loss to the option seller with a strong adverse move and an option price will increase to account for the higher risk and compensate the option seller for this risk.

Vega measures an option’s sensitivity when there are changes in volatility of the underlying asset.

Option vega is the measure of the amount of money per underlying share that an option contract value will gain or lose as price volatility rises or drops by 1 percentage point. Both call options and put options will increase in contract value when price volatility rises.

Vega can be one of the most important Greeks to understand and track for an option trader. During more volatile markets and charts the value of option strategies will be very price sensitive to changes in volatility, especially with extreme price range expansion. The cost of at-the-money options, and especially straddle and strangle option plays will become more expensive with changes in volatility on the underliers.

The volatility of an asset is measured by the magnitude and speed that price moves up or down, and can be based on any changes in the recent price range or historical prices in a stock or commodity future contract. Vega will change as there are large price changes in a stock or commodity an option is written on. Vega value in the price of an option will decrease as the option gets close to it’s expiration date or it gets past a risk event like earnings or any other important announcement that could cause a big price move. Vega is the component in pricing of options to account for the risk that a seller is taking on based on the current and estimated volatility of the underlying stock. Options increase in value during times of greater volatility and decrease in times of less volatility and after risk events have passed.

If you purchase a stock that is on a company that will announce its earnings before the options expire the expected volatility and the move of the price that is expected due to that event will be priced into the option. An at-the-money option will give you an idea of the expected move of a stock. If a stock is at 100 and an at-the-money 100 strike call option is normally 3 one week until expiration but earnings are before expiration and the 100 strike is 13 instead of the normal 3 then the odds are that the 3 is the normal theta value and the extra 10 is the vega value pricing in a 10 move after earnings. One thing that trips up new option traders is that that 10 Vega value will be almost completely gone when the option opens for trading the following morning after earnings are announced and digested on the chart.

The stock could open at $110 and your option still be worth $13 as your Vega value has been replaced by intrinsic value and you could still have $3 in theta value. To trade options through earnings you have to overcome the price of the volatility that will be gone after the event with enough intrinsic value of the option going in-the-money to be profitable. Some vega can also be priced into options before major events like Fed minutes, a congressional bill, a crop report, or a big jobs report. Always be aware that options are pricing in moves in time and volatility to compensate the option sellers for their risk taking. Option pricing is very efficient for the known volatility of events. It is the following of trends, systems, reactive technical analysis, and risk/reward ratios that can provide an edge.

Vega tends to expand and retract over time. Markets go from volatile to trending or range bound and back to volatile over time and vega tracks the risk in volatility by pricing it into options contracts. Peak vega pricing is with the at-the-money option in a chain and decreases as options get farther in-the-money or farther out-of-the-money as the probabilities change for the option expiring in the money due to volatility.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Pre - Market Analysis (30th Jan 2022)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Right now , dow futures are lower. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. SGX Nifty is up 30-50 Points. 5. There's no point discussing Global markets today. 6. As we are dealing with our own local issues as of now. 7. The talk of the town is Adani Group. 8. Every stock Market participant during last 2 days have not spent as much time with their wife /gf /husband /bf as they have spent on researching Adani stocks. 9. They shouldn't have wasted so much time in research and should've spent their time with loved ones. 10. As Ultimately my Pre Market report would clear all. 11. Now , the Adani stock price has gone below the FPO price. 12. FPO price is in the range of 3100-3200 and stock price is around 2800  13. Who will subscribe to FPO when they can buy shares much cheaper from the Market? 14. Also over the weekend Adani has come up with a 450 page report addressing one by one the allegations made by Hindenberg.  15. I haven't

Pre - Market Analysis (2nd Feb 2022)

1 U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday. 2. Right now , dow futures are lower. 3. Asian markets are mixed. 4. SGX Nifty is down 150 Points. 5. Yesterday was the Fed event in U.S 6. It was expected that they would raise rates by 25 basis points. 7. The same happened yesterday and in spite of that Markets crashed yesterday.  8. Yesterday was a highly Volatile day. 9. Markets were all over the place yesterday.  10. Before the budget , markets were higher. 11. During the budget , markets were flat. 12. After 1 pm markets were at the peak of Volatility.  13. Bank Nifty was down 1000 points by 2.45 pm. 14. In next 30 minutes it recovered all of its losses. 15. The budget was neither good nor bad. 16. The income tax slabs have been revised but also the insurance benefit has gone. 17. All the Insurance companies crashed yesterday.  18. This is a structural change coming out of budget now. 19. Adani stocks crashed yesterday.  20. So clearly there was valuation over hang which is gettin

Nifty hits 17k (15th March 2023)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Right now , U.S Futures are lower. 3. SGX Nifty is up 80-100 points. 4. Asian markets are mixed. 5. There has been 4 days of relentless selling in our Markets  6. The reason doesn't seem to be Banking collapse in United States. 7. U.S Markets have settled after a knee- jerk reaction. 8. Our Markets haven't settled yet. 9. This isn't a selling like the previous ones. 10. Previously FII's used to target few nifty stocks  11. Used to sell them and create panic. 12. This selling is now an all around selling. 13. Broader Markets have been bleeding extensively. 14. There is pain all around. 15. Now 17300 becomes a very important resistance. 16. Nifty might retest 17300 and then break 17k. 17. Markets won't collapse in a hiff.  18. There would be intermittent rallies in between to take weak shorts out. 19. FII's have now been selling aggressively.  20. Nifty might trade between 17000 to 17300 today. 21. stockmarke