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Showing posts from November, 2024

Dreadful Expiry Day & Whats Ahead ? (29th Dec 24)

1. U.S Markets were shut yesterday. 2. Asian markets are higher right now. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX is now close to 15 5. Yesterday was a dreadful expiry. 6. I say Dreadful because the Volatility was at its peak. 7. It was a crazy roller coaster trading day. 8. There were 100 points move in Nifty in just minutes. 9. Markets falling is one thing , but markers falling 200-300 points I just minutes is a concern. 10. Yesterday there were many interesting things that I have noticed. 11. FII's have sold for 11500cr Yesterday.  12. This is the highest single day selling of 2024. 13. In spite of Nifty & Bank nifty crashing Yesterday, the broader markets were strong. 14. Mid & Small caps closed in Green. 15. It was clear that FII's wanted to bring Index down by just selling big in a few stocks. 16. Today's trading session is a very important trading session 17. This is because generally the first trading day sets the trend for the whole m

Monthly Expiry Setup (28th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed slightly lower yesterday.  2. Asian markets are higher right now. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX is now close to 14. 5. Last 2 trading sessions , Put option premiums of even December series have come down sharply. 6. People are expecting 23200 as a bottom now. 7. Good thing about this Market is its going up slowly after a 1000 point rally. 8. Also testing the patience of many. 9. Markets are in a rising trend but the momentum is slow. 10. Bank Nifty is much strong and the reason is HDFC Bank. 11. HDFC Bank that was facing stiff resistance at 1800 levels since last 2 years has finally closed above 1800. 12. It has given a smooth breakout. 13. Hdfc & ICICI Bank both look strong so Bank Nifty is likely to lead the rally. 14. FII's have stopped selling. 15. They haven't began buying aggressively yet 16. FII's are momentum traders. 17. Once they start selling they keep selling for many days. 18. Similar is with buying. 19.

Buy on Dip? (27th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Asian markets are higher right now. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX is now below 14. 5. VIX below 14 indicates low Volatility and less fear in the markets. 6. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 20-30 points. 7. Tomorrow we have the monthly expiry. 8. Today is a day before the expiry. 9. Many option sellers would build positions today. 10. Markets have been in a strong grip since Friday. 11. FII's have also began to buy. 12. Confidence is coming back in the markets. 13. Markets would go up slowly and steadily. 14. It won't be like previous times where recovery would happen in weeks. 15. Once the market gets the confirmation that on ground consumption has been good then we would rally. 16. Right now , markets in a range of 24000 to 24500. 17. It's much likely that Nifty would expiry here itself. 18. On the other hand,  Bank Nifty is quite strong. 19. It's just 3-4% away from its ATH 20. Nifty migh

Will the Gap up Sustain? (25th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Asian markets are higher right now. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX crashed 10% on Friday. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 300-350 points. 6. If we go as per Gift Nifty , we are likely to open close to 24200. 7. This is some phenomenal recovery 8. The Nifty low on Friday was 23250 and now we are about to open near 24250. 9. This is some insane Volatility and a strong reversal of its kind. 10. It's a thousand points reversal in just 1 trading session. 11. That's why I always advice to be ready as one never knows when does the opportunity unfold. 12. 24500 according to me is the key level for Nifty. 13. If this is crossed , I will fully turn Bullish. 14. Right now the view is slightly Bullish. 15. Maharashtra elections would change the sentiment for the markets as now we have a big political mandate from the Ruling Party. 16. FII selling according to what I know was weak results and better opportunit

Will we close above 23500 today? (19th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Asian markets are higher right now. 3. Right now , Dow futures are higher. 4. U.S VIX crashed 4% Yesterday.  5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 40-50 points. 6. The next big trigger for our Markets is the State Elections.  7. It has the capability to move the markets by 2-3% 8. Markets have been stable for last 2-3 trading sessions. 9. Largecap stocks also look like they are stabilizing right now. 10. Reliance seems to have made a short term bottom near 1250. 11. I have sold 1200 PE of Reliance for November expiry. 12. Will do adjustments only if it closes below 1250. 13. Otherwise will let the profits run. 14. Yesterday's low of 23350 around is now a good support to work with. 15. Tomorrow is a local holiday due to voting. 16. As Markets are oversold , traders wouldn't like to carry their shorts before a big event. 17. Expect some short covering rally in the 2nd half today. 18. This is a sell on rally Market currentl

Will we hold 200 DMA ? (18th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed lower on Friday. 2. Asian markets are mixed right now. 3. There was some profit booking after a bug rally in U.S Markets. 4. U.S VIX crossed 15 on Friday. 5. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap down of 80-100 points. 6. The next big trigger for our Markets is the Maharashtra state elections. 7. It has the capability to move the markets by 2-3% 8. Over the weekend there were reports floating around that CLSA has increased India allocation. 9. Goldman Sachs has also in an interview said they are Bullish on India. 10. The issue here is we should not get overexcited immediately.  11. They might keep selling for a while even after such statements. 12. Focus on price action and levels to decide trading strategies. 13. Do not decide based on such statements. 14. Majority of the largecaps are already down 20-30% from the peak  15. All these are providing a good opportunity to enter. 16. A reversal is due anytime in the markets as we are at highly oversold levels. 1

Nifty tests 200 DMA !! (14th Nov 2024)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed Yesterday.  2. Asian markets are mixed right now. 3. U.S Futures are mixed. 4. The post Election rally has finally settled in U.S 5. U.S VIX is now below 14. 6. U.S VIX crashed 5% Yesterday. 6. Last 2 trading sessions , we have had brutal correction in our Markets. 7. Nifty has now officially corrected 10% from it's peak. 8. This is the first 10% correction after March 23. 9. This correction was very much due. 10. The Valuations had gone berserk. 11. Nifty had finally broken its big support level of 23800. 12. We might have a small pullback towards 23800 now as a bounce from 200 DMA. 13. If we do not bottom out here then we may fall another 1-2% on Indices. 14. Markets have fallen one way without stopping. 15. So a pullback might be due and then we decide from there the future course of action. 16. Bank Nifty which was the outperformer all this while also broke its support level of 51k Yesterday. 17. Now Bank Nifty is also at its final suppor

23800 Make or break (13th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed lower Yesterday.  2. Asian markets are mixed right now. 3. U.S Futures are mixed. 4. The post Election rally has finally settled in U.S 5. U.S VIX is now below 14. 6. After the August first week crash , where Yen depreciated and we fell 1000 points in 2 days , U.S Markets are up 20% from their lows. 7. We are again at the same level as August.  8. This has been a huge underperformance by us. 9. FII selling is the thing everyone talks about but that's just an output. 10. The main reason for all this is falling earnings , high Inflation etc. 11. If markets keeps going up ignoring all these factors , the crash would have been even more severe. 12. Nifty closed below 24k yesterday which is not good. 13. There was a sudden sell off after 1 pm yesterday.  14. It was so severe that Nifty fell 400 points from day high. 15. All the banking stocks were targeted yesterday.  16. 23750-23800 is a strong support zone , it should be held on if we expect stability

Signs of Stability in Largecaps? (12th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Asian markets are mixed right now. 3. S&P 500 has crossed 6000. 4. Bitcoin has made a new High of 90k. 5. The post election Trump rally has not stopped yet. 6. Tesla us up 25% since the Election results date. 7. This has been an all round rally in the U.S Markets. 8. Also there has been rally In all the Global Markets. 9. Our Markets are currently stabilizing wrt large caps.  10. Yesterday there was a 300 point recovery from 24000. 11. The recovery was sold into & the markets closed flat. 12. As long as 24k holds , markets would try to make a bounce towards 24500. 13. Now markets would focus on the upcoming quarter results and not on the quarter that had went by. 14. Reliance is the biggest disappointment in this fall. 15. Reliance had made a High of 3200 and now its at 2500 (adjusting 1:1 bonus) 16. This is a 20% fall from highs. 17. 20% fall from highs is officially termed as a bear market. 18. Banks are outperforming Ni

Weakness to Continue? (11th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Asian markets are mixed right now. 3. S&P 500 has crossed 6000. 4. Bitcoin has made a new High of 81000 5. All the Cryptos are rallying big 6. There is Greenery everywhere in the World Markets except ours. 7. U.S Futures are higher right now. 8. U.S VIX is now close to 14. 9. India VIX has also fallen drastically from 18 to 14. 10. This market we are in currently is a trapping market. 11. When you feel it will go up it reverses and vice versa. 12. 23800 to 24500 is the range for Nifty currently. 13. Within this range markets have been trading with huge Volatility  14. If I look at the earnings season , largecaps have declared poor results compared to mid and small caps. 15. Mid & Small cap companies comparatively have declared better results. 16. Option premiums are quite good in the current environment.  17. There are only 12 trading sessions left for expiry as we have 2 more holidays in November.  18. This is a Non direc

FED Rate Cut !! (8th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Asian markets are higher. right now. 3. U.S Futures are higher. 4. Yesterday markets were again Volatile. 5. Nifty fell 300 points from the top and was just flat throughout. 6. FII selling hasn't stopped. 7. Everyday they are selling close to 5000 crore. 8. U.S Markets hit another record high yesterday.  9. Our Markets keep going lower. 10. This divergence cannot continue for long. 11. Expect limited downside now. 12. Many largecap stocks are already down 20% from peak. 13. Valuations have become quite attractive now. 14. This Volatility might continue for some time. 15. 23800 to 24500 is the range. 16. Nifty is trading violently within this band. 17. Bank Nifty is even more Volatile with 800 points move on daily basis. 18. Bank Nifty range is 51000 to 52500. 19.Nifty might trade between 24100 to 24500 today. 20.  stockmarketadvisory.in

Short Covering or Trend Reversal? (7th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher yesterday.  2. Dow rallied 1500 points in a day. 3. I don't remember a day where it has rallied so much in the past 4 years. 4. This is some serious stuff going on. 5. Our Markets have also performed very well yesterday.  6. Nifty closed just near 24500. 7. Mid & Small cap stocks were in limelight along with IT Stocks. 8. Gift Nifty is indicating a small gap down opening. 9. Asian markets are mixed. 10. U.S VIX crashed 22% Yesterday and now near 16. 11. India VIX crashed 10% in last 2 days. 12. Expect India VIX to go below 14 in coming days. 13. Markets have been highly Volatile and trading has not been easy. 14. Nifty has rallied 700 points in last 2 trading sessions. 15. Last 3 trading sessions,  Nifty has moved 400 points on daily basis. 16. Expect Volatility to ease a bit. 17. One thing that's constant is FII selling. 18. They haven't stopped selling spree & sold for 4500 crores even yesterday  19. Also they have added mo

Trump leads U.S (6th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher Yesterday.  2. Asian markets are higher right now. 3. Dow futures are up 600 points. 4. Trump leading the race currently by a big margin. 5. The results are not yet declared so the game may change too. 6. Gift Nifty is indicating a gap up of 60-70 Points. 7. Expect U.S VIX to fall post verdict. 8. India VIX was also above 16 Yesterday.  9. If the verdict goes in market favour , expect India VIX to be below 15. 10. Nifty has once again tested 23800 Yesterday.  11. Markets were crashing badly in the first half. 12. This has been a common trend from last 2 days. 13. Markets falling in the first half then recovering in the second half. 14. Expect 23800 to be a strong support for rest of November. 15. Do not expect 23800 to be breached so easily. 16. However , 24500 is a near term resistance. 17. Bullish view would be confirmed once 24500 is breached. 18. Until then it's a ranging market from 24000 to 24500. 19.Nifty might trade between 24100 to

FII's non-stop sell off !! (5th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed mixed yesterday  2. Asian markets are mixed right now. 3. U.S Futures are higher. 4. As the Elections are getting closer in U.S , their market is also becoming quite Volatile. 5. Markets have been trading in a range in U.S with Volatility.  6. Indian markers Volatility is much more higher than U.S Markets. 7. Yesterday there were media reports that our Markets fell due to U.S Elections. 8. The fact actually is U.S Markets itself are not falling. 9. All the Global Markets have been doing well. 10. Our market is under significant pressure. 11. We had hope that this selling could end with October. 12. Yesterday too FII's have sold more than 4500cr 13. They have now sold non stop for 20+ trading sessions. 14. Yesterday the final support of 23800 was also tested. 15. Heavy open interest was added at 24300 CE and above. 16. Markets are going to be volatile. 17. Expect Nifty to once again to back to its range of 24000-24500. 18. Trending move would occur

U.S Elections week !! (4th Nov 24)

1. U.S Markets closed higher on Friday. 2. Asian markets are mixed right now. 3. U.S Futures are mixed. 4. As the Elections are getting closer in U.S , their market is also becoming quite Volatile. 5. Markets were all over the place yesterday in U.S. 6. U.S VIX continues to hover around 20 7. Sense that after the election verdict the VIX would crash in U.S 8. These elections could entice some Volatility in the Markets. 9. Now very few corporate results remain. 10. 95% of the Companies have already announced the results  11. Muhurat Trading session was quite unusual. 12. Markets went up but call options premium came down. 13. Put option premiums went higher. 14. Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures were at discount. 15. All this indicates there was not much of a Liquidity in the markets. 16. Today would be an important trading session as it would be a full fledged trading day. 17. Nifty has been trading in a 500 point range between 24000 to 24500 from quite a long time. 18. Trending